Ben Sainsbury
-
Posts
2,364 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Ben Sainsbury
-
-
The Netweather NMM Model seems much more in line with what I would expect in regards to surface temperatures. Take Friday for example.
-
8
-
-
ECM 0z seems to be relatively consistent compared to its last run, 20’c isotherm in the South by Thursday and 24’c isotherm clipping Cornwall and looks to advect further northwards too. Low remains cut off which is good ofc!
-
22 minutes ago, Another Kent clipper said:
My four days off have fallen on yesterday, today, tomorrow, and Sunday!
... however, having just checked the GFS, tue-wed-thu are already scaled down for Cape from what they were. Can't speak for other charts
That is for SB CAPE and not ML CAPE as we're likely to see more elevated storms rather than surface based.
-
1
-
-
2 hours ago, MetWeather said:
Anyone thinking we could get worse than Thunder Thursday? Its a thought in the back of my mind but i just know it will be across western Britain. Everyone says the South - East is the best for thunderstorms but they always happen elsewhere or weaken by the time they get to me!
I have no doubt that the storms next week will be worse than Thursday and a much more widespread too. The CAPE amounts are enormous and was an area in Thursday's storms which could've done with being higher. End of next week particularly looks very dangerous.
-
4 hours ago, TomW said:
The main reason I didn’t bother chasing Tuesday night but would have been a good view over the Brighton coast!
Please don't remind me, I got to the Brighton Coast half an hour too late
-
44 minutes ago, A.J said:
Yes, Chris, in that scenario with other parameters in play (warm moist lower level air, cold pool overspilling aloft to steepen lapse rates, trough etc etc), elevated storms (above the 850hpa boundary) would be the most likely form of convective weather...Surface convection would be limited, with a pretty strong cap (inversion) in the lower atmos
Agreed, looking at the 850-500hpa Lapse Rates, these looking extremely steep especially towards the middle of the week. So I would expected prolific lightning from any elevated convection.
-
1
-
-
Extraodinary stuff from GFS 6z. By T171 it has the 26'c isotherm over the far SW.
-
2
-
-
13 minutes ago, Dean E said:
Looks like those cells are forming on a outflow boundary of the main MCS moving NNE. You can see an instant chain forming.
And I assume won’t be particularly active because the MCS is taking up all the “juice”?
-
Yep at Brighton Pier atm, half a dozen flashes last 10-15 mins and seems to be back-building too!
-
1
-
-
1 minute ago, LightningLover said:
Lightning near Caen!!!!
There you go!
-
Some rapid convection taking place SW of Caen according to Sat24.
-
1 minute ago, tomp456 said:
And there's me in Worthing stuck in the middle of Bournemouth and Brighton. Lol.
That's calm, you'll see some nice distant lightning.
-
2 minutes ago, John90 said:
Big westward trend from the 06Z
Which model?
-
2 minutes ago, TomW said:
Long drive but if it’s worth it I’m considering doing the same I’ll wait till later before making decisions!
True, I was waiting until if ConvectiveWeather were putting out a Moderate or not, and they have so I'm sold!
-
1
-
-
2 minutes ago, TomW said:
From Bristol or reading?!
From Bristol haha
-
6 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:
I may be chasing in the South Downs area just outside Brighton
I don't know the area well whatsoever so I'm heading there and just seeing what works out haha.
-
1
-
-
Such a predicament, my first potential long distance chase today for myself. As many have said the risk seems to have shunted eastwards; I might target in and around the Brighton area seems to be a good spot whether it's a direct hit or from distance.
-
Just now, THE MISSFITS said:
Where are you Ben? My parents messaged me to say they had an overhead clap of thunder just before 7. They're near Burghfield, south of Reading
Oh yeah I'm at the university in Reading atm.
-
Just now, Swansonson69 said:
What's the flooding like down south?
We've had 26mm here in Reading and plenty more to come according to radar. Drains are almost full and localised flooding in places atm.
-
Just had a flash of lightning just to the south of me, was unexpected!
-
It's quite interesting because particularly later this evening across the SE/East Anglia there is quite a decent overlap of ML CAPE, DLS and SRH. I wondering whether we might see something more organised for a time move its way in from the continent.
-
18 minutes ago, Surrey said:
Does your model tie in with EURO4 current predictions?
This is what I thought of last Friday, EURO4 nailed the intensity and distribution of the showers just like this other model did. Hopefully they're in line this time too.
-
Short video of lightning I captured in Portishead on a short chase this evening.
-
7
-
-
Some impressive looking CB's moving up from the south here.
Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Right now evident that there is some mid-level instability around. Might see one or two thunderstorms form in the next couple of hours.