Ben Sainsbury
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Posts posted by Ben Sainsbury
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Hi All,
Forgive me if it's obvious but which Extra Subscription includes the UKV Charts?
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20 minutes ago, Zak M said:
Hey Ben, I was drooling at some archived storm threads last night and I saw your posts regarding to your insights of some storms. I was impressed! Keep the posts up
Thanks Zak! Am a little bit rusty with all the storm charts at the moment but with all the time in the world over the next few weeks hopefully I can scratch up a little!
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Hi all,
Haven't been around for a while but the latest round of showers/storms a few days ago have brought me back.
We see an interesting almost Spanish Plume like scenario unfolding Friday into this weekend. Unfortunately since we aren't in July-September the storms won't be as active as we would hope despite that it does still look promising. No charts from me at the moment as we're still a little too far out however Friday evening looks like more general thundery rain as CAPE levels don't look particularly high. Midday Saturday could provide greater potential since we have a larger increase in CAPE & introduction of some basic levels of DLS. These storms all look to be in the form of elevated storms so English Channel SST's won't be a worry. However there's a small risk of something more surface based late Saturday across CS England if skies clear.
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47 minutes ago, AMeltedFlake said:
Not even a 50% chance of lightning from Estofex! Seems odd to me.
Used to have a lot of faith in ESTOFEX but has faded considerably and since ConvectiveWeather have come about these are my absolute go to. Absolutely nail it every time so.
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Must agree, a very large MCS particularly for UK standards anyway. Seems like there may be a developing squall line at the front; whilst on the back-edge it is evident the outflow of the MCS is developing new weaker storms.
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Cannot link as I’m on my phone apologies however ConvectiveWeather have extended the Moderate Area to cover much of the UK!
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6 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
Warning out!
How’s the UKV looking this morning?
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1 minute ago, Summerstorm said:
Way out on it's own though the Arpege,Hirlam and Arome don't go this far east as well as the UKV posted by Mapantz. That's a big shift compared to these other highly regarded hi-res models so i would wait and see what it's next run puts out compared to the other models. At least that's my take on it and we are barely a day and a half out now i doubt it will shift that much.
Yeah EURO4 is by far the furthest east of all Hi-Res.
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13 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:
NetWX model with that 38C on Thursday in SE corner.. but widely mid 30s W London eastwards and from Kent up to around Lincoln
Thanks for showing the snapshots of the Netwx, my apologies for not showing them earlier. Latest run shows a slightly better flow off the continent.
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Again the NetwX model hinting at 38'c along the Thames Estuary on its 06z run with 24'c uppers clipping the south coast.
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1 minute ago, Karl83 said:
Yes Ben I was thinking of the Bristol Channel too. Maybe Pilning?
Depends, may head down to Brean/Burnham-on-sea if storms look quite potent initially. If they develop as they move northwards then Pilning will be a good shout.
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11 minutes ago, Karl83 said:
Think I'm just going to sit tight in Bristol and see how the night pans out. Will definitely chase if required.
My exact thinking! Probably will make a trip up Dundry or towards the Bristol Channel if further west.
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Just now, Azazel said:
HIRLAM showing the bulk of activity pretty far west over cornwall up into southern wales. Does show an arm of precipitation reaching into central southern counties though. Same with Arpege.
Generally with a mass of thunderstorms/MCS the eastern edge has the most frequent lightning/highest rainfall rates. Potentially could be what the Hirlam & Arpege are showing.
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Wow, the Netwx model showing three 38'c icons for Thursday at 3pm over London/Thames Estuary! All time temperature record likely to be broken with this chart.
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Certainly feels a while since we've had any imported thunderstorms here in Bristol. Hopefully we can be the breeding ground for a huge MCS to track across all the areas further North!
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Some very tasty charts for Tuesday Night...
1000J/Kg of MLCAPE, Basic Levels of DLS, Extremely High SRH all combined provides a risk of some very quite large hail & prolific lightning as cloud tops reach -50'c. Looks like potential for some elevated supercells where we have best overlap of ingredients.
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Oh my that is an awfully nasty looking storm on the radar, look at those rainfall rates!
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Yeah potentially this storm was surface based & not fully rooted to boundary layer. I expect storms to strengthen through the night as it moves into more favourable conditions.
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Latest NMM looks interesting? Two areas of interest...
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This area looks promising to me; represented well by some decent convective clouds on the Sat24 within the mass of cloud.
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1 minute ago, Josh Rubio said:
Are these storms which are expected tonight elevated or surface based? Because there certainly hasn’t been any surface heating here as the sun hasn’t made one appearance so far today. Full cloud cover with the mist not budging one bit.
They are going to be elevated!
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Unfortunately the storms in the North haven't much instability available to them causing cloud tops to be quite low. Also cloud tops are relatively warm also reducing the risk of lightning.
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34.1'c - Heathrow - Saturday 29th June
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Some large convective raindrops beginning to fall here from a few developing showers. Looks like this will be the focal point for later.
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Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Based on the UKV which has so far done well with the distribution and timing of these showers then I would expect them to die out soon.