Ben Sainsbury
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Posts posted by Ben Sainsbury
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ICON 18z at 120 much more amplified than its 12z run.
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1 hour ago, Xanderp009 said:
Where I thought thunderstorms would be today from Yesterday.
You can't judge where today's storms will be based on yesterday! Aha unfortunately it doesn't work like that.
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Deep convection going up between Exmoor and Dartmoor as evident on Sat24.
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7 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said: Viewsurf - Webcams HD plage - Arcachon - Live
WWW.VIEWSURF.COMViewsurf, leader européen de la webcam HD touristique live et différée, plage - France - Aquitaine - Arcachon - Live
Watching some lovely lightning displays on the Archachon webcam as the thundery front approaches the west coast of France
Might actually be the best lightning display I've ever seen on a webcam.
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I know this is somewhat more relevant for the European chat but storm initiation over N Spain into the Bay of Biscay taking place an hour or two earlier than expected. Unsure of what this means in regards to later.
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Latest UKV run looks beefy that's for sure!
Thunderstorm Advisory Issued by Metcheck:
Metcheck.com - Latest UK Weather Warnings - UK Weather Alerts.
WWW.METCHECK.COMMetcheck.com - Latest UK Weather Warnings - UK Weather Alerts.-
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38 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:
Hum..
the SW could see a few flashes later on.
Day 1 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 04 May 2020 - 05:59 UTC Tue 05 May 2020
ISSUED 07:03 UTC Mon 04 May 2020
ISSUED BY: null
Residual moisture from an old occlusion over eastern England on Monday morning will drift gradually inland and be subject to convective overturning through the day. Extensive cloud and light rain and drizzle is likely to break up, to then be replaced by a few isolated but locally heavy showers by the afternoon as diurnal heating yields 100-300 J/kg CAPE and low-level convergence aids in forced ascent. On Sunday, a few isolated lightning strikes occurred with ELTs around -16C, by Monday the subsidence inversion will have extended down to ~700mb, meaning convection will be even shallower with ELTs around -8C. This suggests that lightning is very unlikely, and considered a 5% chance in any one location. Once again, profiles will be highly-sheared above the cloud-bearing layer, but due to the shallow nature of convection this sheared environment cannot be utilised. Any showers will fade through the evening hours as diurnal heating subsides.
Elsewhere, thunderstorms are expected to erupt over northern Iberia / Bay of Biscay / western France on Monday afternoon, drifting northwards across the Brest peninsula mid/late evening and approaching the Channel Islands / Cornwall around/after midnight. However, the bifurcating steering flow combined with gradually reducing ThetaW suggests lightning activity will weaken as these elevated thunderstorms track northwards, with a transition from initially largely convective rain to more dynamic / frontal rain. A low-end SLGT (30% chance) has been introduced, but even this may be over-estimating the lightning potential.
Convective Weather
WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UKForecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.
Yep, Dan's forecast aligns well with my current thoughts.
ESTOFEX forecast link too: http://www.estofex.org/ (Level 2 Issued for W France)
Could be in the sweet spot if you live in Cornwall, UKV has thundery activity even reaching there tonight.
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29 minutes ago, viking_smb said:
ben, whats the score with tomorrow night then?
Very low risk tomorrow night < 5% of any activity inland, a front moving northwards tomorrow night into Tuesday still looks to produce an MCS/Squall Line in the Bay of Biscay but runs until much more stable air due to high pressure across English Channel/Coastal Southern Areas. Could be some great radar/sat/lightning watching for W/NW France but won't really know how far north the convective activity reaches until we get to the time.
Still think there is a 20% chance approx of far SW Cornwall and maybe South Devon a chance of a few distant flashes but unsure as of yet. Bit disappointing really.
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8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:
Well...
i think Estofex got the weather right today in terms of storms but i am not knocking Dan's convective forecast though as we all know how hard forecasting storms is.
next weekend looks like the next opportunity but that is light years away.
Must remember that ESTOFEX & Dan have different lightning risk criteria. ESTOFEX is 15% within 40km and Dan's 10% within 25km (on this occasion anyway).
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The most unexpected of flashes outside my window from a small shower to my east!
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Just to add onto my previous post about the thundery potential next Monday into Tuesday, here's what the current forecast models show atm:
UKV actually shows the biggest chance of any thundery activity reaching the far SW. High-res models like AROME & EURO4 don't reach that timeframe yet.
GFS:
ARPEGE: NMM:
UKV:
ICON:
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Not too much to talk about regarding potential thundery activity next few days. However still keeping a keen eye on developments Monday into Tuesday for the far SW England & S Coast of Ireland.
Early signs for MCS development to take place over the Bay of Biscay and weaken on its approach to the SW, unsure whether it will even make landfall but hopefully those in the far SW may see some decent lightning/storm structure. Whilst CAPE values are a touch low, all the parameters are in place for quite a prolific MCS to develop. How far north the MCS reaches is dependent on how far the moist unstable air is advected northwards.
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12 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:
I sure hope that these charts don't come off from day ten,they look shocking in terms of temps
EPS/GEFS mean 500mb and 850's temp anomaly's
cpc 6-10/8-14 days
they all show hp cell retrogressing into the Atlantic and trough over Scandi
GEFS ens show a cool down after day ten
a long way off and things could/would change so lets see how it goes
18z coming out now,come on gfs give us a BBQ run.....
Have a feeling judging by T138 on GFS 18z that this could turn out to be a warm one!
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21 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:
Just checked Estofex and saw they mentioned a strongly sheared environment for the England discussion... Not sure what to make of this? I though today was marginally sheared...
Definitely aimed at much of France and Germany, they're expecting some enormous DLS values today >60knts.
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5 minutes ago, Harry said:
Widely 300 - 700 J/Kg CAPE available tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Let us hope for some fairly widespread thundery activity for the first time this year
Should actually see some semi-decent lightning activity as a result too!
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1 minute ago, bradleywx said:
Looks exciting, but doesn't the GFS tend to present these sorts of parameters very often 5-7 days before a plume event (particularly wrt CAPE)? Only for them to be significantly watered down within about 2-3 days before? Fingers crossed no matter what though..
GFS are definitely prone to over-blowing CAPE values particularly medium to long range but the CAPE values shown for early next week is nothing extraordinary and is actually supported by the ECMWF with a similar thundery breakdown. So in response I don't think the CAPE values in particular will water down too much it's just a case of whether all the right ingredients come together.
10 minutes ago, Cableguy said:Was the stuff over France today supposed to be as active as it is currently?
The storms do appear to be quite active don't they! Even ESTOFEX have only issued a 15% risk for Northern France. Despite that there are 500-700J/KG of CAPE so it is no surprise that there is a fair bit of electrical activity but probably a little more than expected.
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Looking ahead to next weekend/early next week there appears to be a lot of potential for some strong/severe thunderstorms across Southern areas. Just for a laugh I decided to look at some of the available charts:
Quite extraordinary what the latest GFS run has in store and I must stress this is likely to be changed/watered down.
But for early Monday a large amount of moisture is advected northwards across S UK, 850hpa temps reaching 15'c in the SE which allows 800J/KG of ML CAPE to develop. Followed by 40knts of DLS and very steep lapse rates this is simply all the ingredients required to spawn a few severe elevated thunderstorms. GFS actually hinting at quite a prolific MCS to move NNE across CS England Monday morning.
I better stop myself before I get too excited but for those new, what the GFS is currently showing for next weekend is typically what you require for a severe thunderstorm outbreak. If any of you have any questions then feel free to ask. I'll be keeping an eye on these developments over the coming week.
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Would not look at the latest UKV run if I were you guys...
Done well regarding today's storms too.
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Quite a potent little feature moving over Sidmouth, SE Devon right now. Would expect to see some further development just west of Poole in the next hour.
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Judging by the cloud heights on Sat24, radar & lightning tracks I think there is a good chance that the areas of storms around Jersey will merge to form a larger (but relatively weak MCS) moving between the Portsmouth to Brighton area between 10pm and midnight.
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To add from Mapantz here is the latest MU CAPE charts for now and midnight tonight for the UK.
The developing showers/storms ahead of the small MCS in SE Devon are within a region of decent CAPE values atm, so there is a chance of them becoming weakly electrified. These CAPE values diminish significantly by midnight particularly from 10pm onwards.
New EURO4 out too but not even worth looking at since it's way out already, but does send quite a potent MCS feature moving into Kent later so you never know
However UKV is almost spot on, though everything is a touch west and south of the latest run.
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Tonight is quite remarkable actually in that I really have no idea if and when storms may survive/make landfall in the UK. It's all down to radar watching at the moment and does look fairly promising in my opinion. Majority of the Hi-Res models have most of these storms dying out before making it half way across the channel so should be interesting!
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Rise and shine everyone!
Definitely an interesting look rain band atm. Looking south from my house, as expected can see a large Cb. Cloud height shooting over 10km according to Sat24.
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6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:
New cell developed SE of the main with sferics.
i always follow this site for lightning,more accurate than the lightningmaps.org.
Lightning & Thunderstorms - United Kingdom, England, Scotland, Wales, Ireland
EN.BLITZORTUNG.ORGBlitzortung.org provides lightning and thunderstorm information in real time on maps for USA, United Kingdom, Australia, new Zealand, Europa, Africa, Asia and other Countries.Lightningmaps.org use the Blitzortung lightning data so I'm not sure how that works?
Safe to say new cells are exploding into action and I did not expect this.
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Model Output Discussion - heading into April
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Ben Sainsbury
Another reload of the Azores high advecting towards us
And it's going to be real hot