Ben Sainsbury
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Posts posted by Ben Sainsbury
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9 minutes ago, IDO said:
The ECM op compared to the mean for Tuesday's low:
Do you have corresponding 850hpa temps for the ECM Mean for that particular time?
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8 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
With this intensity 20-24mm/hr there’d be much more than X3 for sweetspots it’s very heavy snow.
Typically rainfall to snow accumulation ratios are what, 1:8 or 1:10? so 20mm would correspond to 16/20cm of snowfall within a 6 hour period.. WOW.
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1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:
Hi Ben. Could you possibly show snow amounts for Scotland, please?
Apologies, here is the Scotland accumulations up until Wednesday 9am also.
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ECM Snow Accumulation Amounts - Wednesday 9am. (ECM accumulations all falling snow, so slightly overdone)
From this I expect 2-3cm along M4 Corridor, 3-5cm along coast & 5-8cm across far SE.
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Netwx MR Model - Snow Risks till Friday:
Sunday: Back-edge sleet/snow?
Monday: Feature moving across UK, snow risk highest north.
Tuesday: Precipitation clips south coast, no notable snow.
Thursday: Heavy snow to rain event, the back to snow.
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1 minute ago, Ice Day said:
ECM at 72, very UKMOish
ECM
UKMO
And GFS Parallelish
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Remarkable consistency from GFS Parallel bringing another widespread snow event Tuesday night.
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I already get the vibe the GFS P is going to deepen the first low up a lil again and not leave it like the OP run.
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GFS Parallel coming next... The last few runs of the GFS P have been remarkably snowy so we shall wait and see what it lays on our tables!
It has always been quite keen to deepen the low pressure for Tuesday's event!
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Whilst the feature at T72 on GFS 12z is a lot shallower this run compared to ICON 12z, it helps pep up the snow showers running across England so even these could be heavy and widespread.
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GFS Parallel a positive step forward on the 6z, low is 5mb shallower and is further south, almost like a jelly bean shape at T120!
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1 minute ago, shaky said:Most of england gets clobbered at 84 hours by snow!!midlands and south get hammered!
Widespread 10-15cm on that run easily!
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Just now, Drifter said:
What differences are you seeing?
It looks very similar to the 00z up to 102.
It’s certainly not a million miles away, we just really don’t want the low to deepen any further and as you could see it’s at least 5mb deeper this run which will lead to consequences later on.
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2 minutes ago, shaky said:
Second part of shortwave coming through now!!watch it explode!!
Even this shortwave is tracking southwards.
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Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:
The MetO have also mentioned the southerly tracking lows crossing the Bay of Biscay so maybe some weight in these Synoptics ?
Quite possibly & we should all remember that whilst these lows might track quite far south, there will be numerous small features forming within this polar air bringing a few surprises at short notice. A small feature when areas of the SE last week brought to 6-7cm in places. If we see several of these move through the UK next week who knows...!!!
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4 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
ICON 18z bringing a snow event as a front moves eastwards at T90, this bringing the goodies to Midlands southwards. Another small slider event at T114, south of the M4 only.
T90:
T114:
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ICON 18z bringing a snow event as a front moves eastwards at T90, this bringing the goodies to Midlands southwards. Another small slider event at T114, south of the M4 only.
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FV3 shows a very snowy Southern England, Tuesday night into Wednesday. Uppers well on our side of marginal.
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Typically when looking at precipitation type charts, if you want to approximate accumulations, normally 10mm of rain accumulating corresponds to 100mm of snowfall accumulation. So a ratio of snow 10:1 rain, therefore 10mm corresponds to 10cm of snowfall. This is ratio can vary however depending on air mass and direction of wind.
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10 minutes ago, tight isobar said:
Yes..icon although not massively different has a better shape for sure..and is primmed 4 maybe-..
a more southerly track..
Remember we know a complete reversal via mods is not going 2 occur at some short stage....but in the given outs..miniscule tweeks- WILL HAVE BIG IMPLICATIONS!!
Yes this! And this is where one recent event springs to mind. Until we’re at T48-72 regarding the low then I expect no less than more changes.
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2 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:
Good 18z GFS for snowfall tonight - quite widespread, something to keep an eye on.
Unfortunately, the ECM has lead the way in the last 2 weeks and if America hadn't made a horrendous decision in making Donald Trump president, the GFS wouldn't even be in use anymore, let alone be anything like reliable.
We need the ECM and UKMO on board in the morning and for these snowy charts to make it, in cross model agreement at T72.
Until then, it is what it is.
FWIW - the short term for once actually looks pretty good, chance of snowfall for the usual candidates over the weekend and early next week.
It could be a lot worse, but my money's on the ECM.
Led the way when models were picking up the potential easterly and then led the way when it decided to drop the easterly
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Snowfall possibilities for the south look good on ICON 18z, from T63 through T120, the uppers remain around or colder than -5 at 850hpa so not a bad start!
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By T132 on the ICON 12z, the building blocks are in place for a decent north-easterly by T180... hopefully!
Azores high moving westwards with heights extending towards Greenland, Arctic high beginning to edge south and low heights moving into Southern Europe.
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5 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:
Anyone actually got a covering of snow?
I do have slight random coverings here but obviously am much further east compared to you.
Cold hunt - models and chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Ben Sainsbury
Obviously because of all our home biases, being in Reading, the ECM mean is probably a little too north for for an all snow event for M4 southwards, so a southward correction would be welcomed. I don't think I've found a potential snow event so nerve-wracking before!
Can we all compromise here, Tuesday = Midlands southwards & Thursday = Midlands northwards?