Ben Sainsbury
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Posts posted by Ben Sainsbury
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1 minute ago, Chris K said:
Certainly a messy picture but some new sferics near Bath. Could pop up anywhere I guess!
I was quite selfish to analyse that as a point of interest because I can get a vantage point over Dundry, I would prefer if something formed near Winchester.
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1 minute ago, Chris K said:
Is anything else likely to head towards the W country?
The direction of sferics looks promising along the S coast but always seems to die of death by the time it gets here I also think steering flow is forecast to change as the night progresses to a more N/NE?This is the area I have my eye on...
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Have a great vantage point currently on top of Chelwood hills, a nice bright purple flash as I speak!
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Various towering cells stretching right across my horizon! Incredible to see might have to take a drive towards Chelwood.
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Beginning to see the towering cells to my south. They already have such extraodinary height given how far I am away!
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Dunno about the lightning strike near Bristol, barely a cloud in the sky.
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Some small towering altocumulus castellanus here, positive to see ahead of main activity.
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4 minutes ago, James86 said:
Thunder just heard in Southampton.
Must be some rapid developments as nothing reminiscent of a thunderstorm over Southampton bar a few showers, exciting time.
Everyone watch the next two radar updates, I expect the channel to explode hehe...
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Just now, Alderc said:
Got a feeling the Bournemouth/Southampton area could in the dead zone if that mcs is splitting.
Possibly in which case, much of West Country into Wiltshire, S Wales and S Midlands may see nothing. However I feel the western clag of the split MCS will track much much further west but we won't know until it happens.
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I don't know if it's just me, but the MCS looks like in the process of splitting indicated by lack of lightning in the middle of the storm track.
As a result, I expect the west side to die off, and for the east side to continue spitting out sferics and to head towards the far SE.
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Patience is all that required and has now delivered on the south coast. Have high confidence that these will develop further.
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3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
I can also confirm, towers are going up just to the SE of me.
Promising signs, I've seen a few reports of this elsewhere too and can be seen on Sat24.
In regards to a bust, the NMM, AROME & EURO4, all don't show anything of note till 7pm, 9pm and 9pm respectively.
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If we take a look at the cloud height on the Sat24: https://en.sat24.com/en/nl/km
It is clear for the most part that the storms in the far SW are decaying.
And if anything the very large active storm possible MCS over France is maintaining, if not growing in size. We should expect further activity by 7/8pm.
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Atmosphere continuing to destabilise across the channel in association with the trough moving northwards. As skies continue clear across much of Southern England I expect more showers/storms to intensity and form further eastwards to the current showers.
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19 minutes ago, Tom dewey likes thunder said:
I can't this cloud clearing up yet over this area of Wiltshire and is it Sunny in Dorset ?
Tom I suggest looking at the Sat24, which is a satellite image animation and you can use it to kind of predict when the cloud will clear.
Use this link: https://en.sat24.com/HD/en/gb/visual
I expect for our region the cloud will disperse by midday.
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4 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:
you're not kidding Ben!......maybe we'll get lucky from these?....they seem to be tracking down the M4 corridor
By the looks of it indeed so, might have to make a drive northwards if these develop further, the NMM currently modelling this area well (although a little more north) only disappointment is no strikes so far!
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22 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:
looks like a couple of sharp showers have just fired over NW London
Especially in the last 10-15 minutes, a few cells have fired over Reading and look explosive on Sat24.
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Agreed very eerie feeling! Not quite sure what to expect for tonight/tomorrow in regards for rainfall/storms.
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8 minutes ago, Lauren said:
I'll be surprised to see anything tonight tbh.
I'd actually second this, for some reason I don't have much confidence in the risk of storms tonight, I don't see much potential though likely to be proved wrong!
Then again ConvectiveWeather's forecasts have been very impressive, and brings me a lot of confidence for tonight on the flip side.
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The explosive development of the storms along the south coast, look very impressive on the Sat24.
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Just for fun of course, but home-grown MCS anyone?
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8 minutes ago, Lauren said:
Where are you seeing this? I can't see anything on the charts. Not being snarky, genuine question.
Can you elaborate, I'm not sure that I know what you mean?
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That time again for thunderstorm activity is upon us, let's take a look at how things are shaping up for tomorrow.
General consensus is for CAPE values to reach between 400-500J/kg in some of the more favourable locations tomorrow, severe parameters look relatively limited for tomorrow so no severe potential unfortunately. Saying that there is a possibility of seeing a FC or two tomorrow given decent LLS and wind convergence zones.
Convergence zones along with strong heating look to be the prime factor for initiating storms and these are evident across much of East Wales/Central Areas along with parts of Dorset into Devon. Storms moving SW throughout the day and evening.
Beginning with the GFS: As always CAPE values are being well overcooked here by more than double. Storms I don't expect to be as widespread (and a little east compared to other models), though again Central Areas/CS-SW England are the most favourable locations.
Next the ECMWF: CAPE values not exceeding 400J/kg, similar to various Skew-T charts I've analysed. ECMWF has a main focus on Devon, although fewer showers across Central areas.
A last look at the NMM Model and EURO4: The NMM model showing the formation of several convergence zones across Central areas and the SW, although again the majority of the higher res models favoring much of the SW over Central areas.
Therefore the general coverage of storms looks to be better over the SW regarding my forecast and if I had to choose a particular location tomorrow I'd have to say in and around the Yeovil area.
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Was only just yesterday the Met Office were predicting UV levels to hit 6 and now they predict UV levels of 7 for Sunday and Monday. Gonna have a cracking tan by the time Bank Holiday finishes!
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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Calm down tiger!