Ben Sainsbury
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Posts posted by Ben Sainsbury
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I've not seen this intensity of rainfall in quite a while!
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4 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:
That storm is rotating can see it very clearly!
I'm a little too far south to view this unfortunately, must be impressive!
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Odd looking, low hanging cloud base to my north. Fortunately sun poking through now to increase surface heating.
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Some very convective looking skies here, and some very dark cloud bases too, could be an interesting afternoon!
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Quick one off post on this thread, but going to be flying home from Palma to Bristol soon, with apparent MCS across Southern France, should be a good view!
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Active storms look to nail Bristol in the next few hours, enjoy it while it's there boys as not home to see it myself!
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From my inexperienced eye, storms forming to SE as a result of outflow from large thunderstorm system to west. Either way someone is going to get something today/tonight.
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Typical one of the most promising risks of storms for Bristol and I'm on holiday, would post more but not had time! Good luck to you all and hope the storms can crack open the Bristol Storm Shield
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7 minutes ago, Justin123 said:
It's a shame these cells have the potential but there is something stopping them progressing into sferic precipitation, wouldn't be upraised if there's some hail mixed in the shower core.
Probably due to the shallow CAPE values and fairly low lapse rates.
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My thoughts of potential new developments atm:
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6 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:
Where would be a good place to get to this afternoon - was considering heading anti-clockwise round the M25 to Hertfordshire area and waiting for developments there.
Any thoughts?
Right now if I were you I'd situate myself in the triangle between Northampton, Peterborough and Cambridge.
There is an area of clear sky over West Midlands, north of the current line of AcCas, as this continues to move east strong dirnual heat could spark off a storm or two just north of the line of showers atm.
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I can just see that line of precipitation forming exploding into some huge thunderstorms as the heat builds. All from that line of Cumulus that I saw earlier.
The line of precipitation is slowly increasing in intensity too.
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Precipitation beginning to form just south of Oxford along the line of developing cloud.
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Some promising areas of Cumulus to my south now, exciting ahah!
Really continuing to grow to good heights now.
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Watch the line of cloud develop from Exeter to Cambridge on Sat24, possible convection could be started here in connection with the approaching cold front? http://en.sat24.com/HD/en/gb/visual
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Just now, Allseasons-si said:
Well covective weather states otherwise
a severe risk?
There is no way that ESTOFEX would miss out a forecast as there is far too much potential tomorrow. I'm sure they have other things to do as they are voluntary hence why a forecast may not come out till tomorrow morning.
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4 minutes ago, wimblettben said:
Definite eastwards shift going on now.
Will be pretty disappointing if we get nothing as we were suppose to be in the main action zone a few days ago and stupidly I got excited and had high hopes.
Really am clutching at straws, if we do get anything then we will have been very lucky and just had the stragglers.
It's so funny how even at this stage the GFS brings another eastward shift. Wouldn't say I'm surprised though happens every time.
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Philip makes me laugh on the BBC Video forecasts mind, "a few showers moving into Southern Areas with the odd rumble of thunder". Oh I better hope it ain't just the odd rumble, ain't staying up for that rubbish!
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5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:
Yes,that is what i will be looking for later if anything
Interesting to note GFS have done well with current timing of showers over Jersey (but as always over-egg the amount of precipitation). Bear in mind the normally reliable Euro4, didn't predict any precipitation to form whatsoever till midnight. Maybe if making an educated guess this could mean that Euro4 predictions could be brought forward and brings a greater risk to some more Central Southern areas.
Current ConvectiveWeather update is spot on for me!
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2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:
They do seem to be moving ENE Ben and prob miss the uk.
Very much true, although skeptical about whats going to happen as the showers should be moving with the trough which is expected to move NNE/NE for the time being. Indicated through the Sat24 too.
Maybe we should look for developments further west?
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First main showers beginning to form over Jersey now, this is where we should expect further developments in the next few hours.
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Just now, MP-R said:
Looking good here. Plenty of altocumulus grimsleyus.
Ahahaha don't get me started!! Good signals of instability here!
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Well isn't that a beautiful sky!
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The NetWx-SR Precipitation charts although should be taken with a pinch of salt look a lot more appealing to me with the initiation of storms further west than the previous run. With a continued risk of thunderstorms across central areas later once the clag pushes through.
Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Definitely some good convection taking place over Gloucester areas. Can see tops of anvil from Filton, looking impressive!