Ben Sainsbury
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Posts posted by Ben Sainsbury
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1 minute ago, Mapantz said:
This is showing the convection as of 8:30pm
And as always an Infrared Satellite Timelapse for those wondering here: http://en.sat24.com/en
Looking promising given the large CAPE levels in the area. To view a range of parameters for storms a good website here: http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/
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5 minutes ago, poseidon said:
Storms already kicking off in the Bay of Biscay.
Just to note, GFS on track with where instability and precipitation might exist for the storms.
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18 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
I don't know why, but there's something about about it that makes me laugh.
You do know that that outcome is confirmed right!
If we look at the CAPE charts, there is no CAPE under that storm whatsoever, interesting to see as haven't seen this too often.
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2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
Yep - spot on!
Although, I preferred September 13th, as that didn't miss me..
And I got this beauty on my phone..
Feels like years ago for some reason?!
September 13th makes me laugh, I remember being at school right in the middle of South Bristol where there was no lightning over us but either side. Couldn't see any of it because the buildings at my school were huge.
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5 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:
Just being a slight pedant here, it was Saturday 27th August. A very loud early to mid afternoon with constant thunder for several hours while I was at football that made me wish it had been at night.
My mistake I just had that date saved on the picture of my phone oops! Apologies.
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18 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:
I think it will be further east and more widespread (perhaps less concentrated too)
Very true, might turn out to be completely different to this, just an indication of what could happen.
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20 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
The event on Thursday morning is really looking like what had happened on 28th August 2016, where storms formed in the channel, pushing up through CS England and increasing NE/E towards East Anglia. Here an MCS formed reaching lightning rates of over 100/min. Funny enough the rainfall rates predicted by WRF-NMM coincide with this capture from 28th August 2016.
Interesting to watch...
To add also this is what the WRF-NMM are suggesting may happen... Somewhat similar I guess?
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The event on Thursday morning is really looking like what had happened on 28th August 2016, where storms formed in the channel, pushing up through CS England and increasing NE/E towards East Anglia. Here an MCS formed reaching lightning rates of over 100/min. Funny enough the rainfall rates predicted by WRF-NMM coincide with this capture from 28th August 2016.
Interesting to watch...
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Just now, Mokidugway said:
Inevitable eastward shift till a best is a Kentish clipperoonie....
That is my worry of course.
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Looks like a possible MCS forming Thursday 03z, significant rainfall rates appearing on Netwx MR, which I don't think I've seen such intensity before. Seems to form in North Bay of Biscay and move across SE England, although earlier runs suggesting the area of storms to move across Devon and Cornwall.
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Just now, Mapantz said:
That would indicate total saturation. 100% RH - Not highly unusual, but the sensor might be damp?
According to XCWeather seems to be evident at various locations, but thanks anyway.
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The dewpoint is the same as the temperature here, is that unusual?
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4 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:
Some really depressingly negative posts by some on here this evening....take a look at the radar, numerous heavy showers breaking out over the Peak District spreading up and into east Yorkshire.....lots of signs of mid-level instability for southern UK with plenty of Ac Cas, & Ac Cas with virga.
The heavy showers up north are in conjunction with a trough moving in from the Irish Sea providing the forcing, and these showers have the potential to develop into quite strong thunderstorms over the next few hours.......further south over central/southern/south west England, we're seeing plenty of mid-level instability as noted above and a waving trough sitting out to the west of the mainland has the potential to destabilise as it moves east overnight, in which case, elevated thunderstorms with plenty of lightning is possible
All-nighter for me then.
It's a difficult scenario for those further south, GFS is the only model of the 3 that I look at which show any precipitation of note tonight. However we know that GFS often over-eggs the amount of showers around.
Euro4 and Netwx-SR having none of it.
I'm still inclined to think we won't see anything tonight.
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Just now, Had Worse said:
Theres a few pixels knocking about, I assume the cell near Brest is the one you mean.
You are correct, it's just there in the middle of nothing.
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A midget shower exists in the English Channel. Makes me think what its doing there!
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Plenty of instability here tonight! Some AC around too.
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For the Midlands, I have my eyes on this...
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Just now, Azazel said:
My bets are on Lincoln for later, looks prime to me.
Also feel North Wales/Liverpool/Manchester could see something spectacular.
I know we have more general thunderstorms now, but as CAPE builds I think the strongest thunderstorms will be in the areas which you have just mentioned.
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And just to note those in the region where severe storms are possible, make sure to get plenty of photos!
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Not only that but GFS gives us another potential thunderstorm event on Thursday too.
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I have a funny instinct that we could see some active thunderstorms very early tomorrow morning.
These charts here just shout activity for me for us Southerners.
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Out of all the charts I have see the GFS is currently most on point with precipitation charts.
Euro4 has no precipitation anywhere near the South of Ireland.
Netwx charts have no precipitation of note.
GFS Ensembles some still suggesting rain to Southern Areas of UK, more North.
GFS on track but has precipitation intensity wrong but judgment of area right.
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Just now, IMP757 said:
Interesting...
Euro4 predicting the same, maybe a little further north.
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12 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:
the potential for storms was forecast, not 'plenty was forecast'.....mid-level capping again has been stubborn to strong for updrafts to penetrate.....still the outside chance of a rogue shower to form, but then eyes turn to tomorrow to see if all this potential energy can be realised (and there's no certainty of that either)
Sorry I should have been more clear, I meant "plenty" as in what could have happened, apologies.
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Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Increasing eastward shift on the latest GFS run too, very agonising but uncertain at this stage.