Ben Sainsbury
-
Posts
2,357 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Ben Sainsbury
-
-
Already looks like the GFS 18z is even further south than 12z. The position of the rainfall across W France is further north than the GFS 18z predicts at 1am.
-
Feel like the precipitation across the Midlands is somewhat intensifying & enlarging in area. Doubt it'll affect us tho.
-
5 minutes ago, AWD said:
Snow is too sleety & wet to stick here.
Seems to be fluctuating, when precipitation is light mainly sleety, when heavy majority is snow, very annoying!
-
Just now, Smartie said:
Had snow falling here for about 20 minutes now, surprised your not seeing any already.
Very very lightly here now.
-
Very windy and all rain has stopped here.
-
2 minutes ago, AWD said:
Temp and DP rising here still. Would need a considerable drop on both counts for a chance of anything other than rain here for the time being.
Will wait until lunchtime & I might drive to a snowy nearby location if need be.
Funny enough beginning to see a few big flakes appearing here.
-
2
-
-
Incredible as well for areas in Bristol, current temperatures observations show Bristol currently at 5'c, whereas Filton currently at 1'c.
-
Must say the Netwx SR Model has modelled this extremely well so far determining the northern extent of the mild air.
-
1
-
-
Does anyone know what the Netweather radar uses to determine the "weather type" for the precipitation??
-
4 minutes ago, Lynxus said:
Have had snow at 5c before and its stuck, so dont worry tooo much about 0 or 1c..
850's cold enough? Maybe some evap coooling.
To be fair, its also midnight so temps are nice and cool.
Even if it rains, it can quickly turn to snow and settle.
And to be fair here in Keynsham now it's more snow than it is rain but only very small flakes.
-
Observations from Bristol indicate current temperature at 1'c. Although precipitation is mainly sleet likely to be because of light precipitation. Once precipitation intensity increases with more evaporative cooling from the SW likely to see the band of rain ready to turn to snow
-
Just now, Nights King said:
green area is mendips. I just came home from pub.. cant see anything at moment.
Expect majority of precipitation is evaporating as it is so light at the moment.
-
Radar indicate of rain turning to sleet as it approaches Wells/Frome area, rainfall intensity slightly increasing too.
-
6 minutes ago, Mark N said:@fergieweatherFollowingFollowing @fergieweatherMoW COUNTRY Sunday update: Risk of snow extends a bit further south by tomorrow AM, *roughly* M4 corridor N'ward, but local-level detail will remain impossible until events unfolding. Risk wind gusts 55-70+mph N Devon/Somerset/exposed Bristol Channel during AM needs emphasising.
Funny just under an hour ago I tweeted them...
@metoffice We’ve seen an increasingly southerly shift of the potential area for snow for Sunday/Monday but you haven’t made any corrections to the warning area. Personally it is only right to move warning area southwards in line with the M4. (10:34pm)
They replied with...
Evening Ben, thanks for sharing your concerns, please be assured that we are monitoring the situation very closely and will make adjustments to the warning areas as and where we feel it is necessary. Stay #weatheraware at http://bit.ly/2h2iEWI ^Kat (10:38pm)
lol
-
A somewhat small shift southwards on the GFS 12z bringing the snowline marginally southwards as a result.
-
1
-
-
3 minutes ago, meh said:
How's the 'slider's always correct westward while the EC adjusts to the GFS' hypothesis holding up?
In every scenario this isn't always going to be the case, though often this happens more frequently than not. Anyway still a good 120h out yet.
-
Just now, comet said:
Excellent output so far great to finally see the ukmo on board. The ecm must surly follow to round off a superb afternoons model watching.
Oh would love for it to follow, but can just see it being difficult and going against what current runs suggest aha.
-
Clearly some differences appearing as we edge towards T144, at least as Day 10 has shown with T96 regarding the current setup is that we have good agreement tho the GFS having pushed the low further east compared to UKMO and ECMWF.
-
Definitely greater amplification on GFS 18z, and some clear differences regarding the low in the Atlantic. A much stronger low developing towards Iceland too displacing much of the cold air from the UK.
-
Low pressure moving up through the Bay of Biscay Friday into Saturday, northerly winds across much of the UK bringing -5'c 850hpa temperatures could bring the potential for a snow event across much of Central UK during Saturday morning. Timing is key here whether the low moves up through the night or during the day & whether enough cold air can wrap around the low pressure as it exits NE'wards. Low probability of a snow event given it's still 3-4 days away.
Apologies if a thread has already been set up for this & if it is in the right area, not been active in a while.
-
Somewhat eerie here today too, a clearly unstable atmosphere and warm which is very strange for this time of year.
Ophelia on the other hand after a northward push, seems to be moving increasingly eastwards now.
Link below showing sustained hurricane force Cat 1 winds of 80mph+, gusts exceeding much higher.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=348.32,50.66,3000
-
1
-
-
Ophelia pretty much completely in view now on Sat24: https://en.sat24.com/HD/en/eu/visual
Eye still evident?
-
5 minutes ago, Chris K said:
Wow a close bolt of lightning with almost instantaneous thunder! Shame it just looks grey above and uninteresting haha...
Just saw a very distant bolt of fork lightning from storm to the North, got me very excited actually!
-
Definitely some good convection taking place over Gloucester areas. Can see tops of anvil from Filton, looking impressive!
-
1
-
South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 09/12/2017 onwards
in Regional
Posted
On the bright side if we do get any more snow, it is likely to settle as many surfaces likely to freeze overnight.