Ben Sainsbury

UKV 03z looking exceptional for Sunday afternoon, I'm not gonna lie...

UKV now on board for Sunday. Shows warm-sector development, looking impressive! Northern England favoured.

Cracking Skew-T this, for Sun 1500 for C England.

CAPE yeah! The front arriving from the west, results in strong southerly winds ahead of the front, advecting a warm moist airmass over us. However, if the front arrives too soon, then less daytime heating, lower CAPE. If the front arrives through the afternoon, we get maximised daytime heating and much higher CAPE. The strong southerly winds ahead of the front will provide strong wind shear, which combined with large CAPE can lead to strong-severe thunderstorms. Which is why this setup is very knife-edge!

I have seen! Don't want to get my hopes too much as it's only Wednesday. Timing will have to be perfect to maximise severe potential.

UKV 15z looks pretty naughty, I wonder if we're underestimating tonights potential? 1000J/Kg of MUCAPE overlaid by 30-40kts DLS is pretty decent historically for elevated thunderstorms. Regardless, some very heavy rainfall in places likely.

Having a look at both the image and radar, I'm not really seeing much, if anything, to support a supercell unfortunately. I'd be inclined to go with scud to be honest, as it doesn't seem to resemble a wall-cloud and there doesn't appear to be any obvious rotation.

Convection should be pretty explosive tomorrow, with large 3CAPE (Cape in lowest 3km) so I’d debate it’s better to be in Hampshire than say the Sheffield region. But anyway, have to see!

Hampshire may very well be the first place for initiation of surface based activity tomorrow!

This is what me & @Met4Cast have gone for tomorrow. Tricky forecast but a few places will see some cracking storms.

I'd have to agree. UKV has been changing a lot over the last 6-12 hours, not that it should be discounted though.

Check AROME out for example. Extremely tricky forecast from this evening/tonight and through tomorrow. AROME would suggest one or two isolated SB storms further west, whereas further east across CS/SE England, some indications of some elevated? storms firing within high Theta-W. Remains to be seen how many elevated thunderstorms form across CS/SE England tonight, but this will have quite a significant impact on where and how strong thunderstorms are likely to be tomorrow.

I see nowt to be concerned about at this stage the further SE you are. W/NW areas likely to see more cloud with the risk of showers but even then I still expect temperatures to be warm with sunny spells at times. Wouldn’t surprise me for high pressure to remain more dominant than what the model suggest at the moment.

UKV & GFS going for a similar theme on Sunday (the day which looks most interesting to me), with scattered showers/thunderstorms at first, before merging into multi-cells. Seems to be an outside risk of an isolated supercell given the atmospheric profile, but would certainly be talking of more organised convection than the week just gone. Skew-T shows decent SB instability around 1,500J/Kg, more than sufficient although relatively skinny at upper levels and profile is pretty saturated. Some directional & speed shear, with decent veering in the low-levels. This combined with stream-wise vorticity and low LCLs suggests risk of funnel clouds or a weak tornado too. Other models more keen on elevated thunderstorms rather than surface-based, which would negate any severe risk. Merely speculating at this point, but hints of something promising somewhere across England/Wales on Sunday.

With a chart like that on the 18z with highest 850s arriving at peak time and if the SE were to avoid any sig rainfall next 10 days, then I don’t see why we wouldn’t break 38-39C again.

Was on the same Amarillo storm that day, chase convergence was unbelievable, not seen anything like it. Unsure how it didn't drop a tornado to be honest, wall-cloud was basically scrapping the floor.

Yeah managed my first tornado on Saturday which was a blast! Today, we were on one of the few tornado-warned storms N of Springfield, Missouri. We've got a down day tomorrow as we're setting up for upcoming risk over Southern Plains.

Looks like some cloud clearance beginning to appear around the Exeter region.

Chase is on the cards today. Going to head down to the M4 corridor, I think somewhere just west of Reading and that should give me plenty of time to make any calls. Mix of both really mate, for more active thunderstorms we do need some sunny spells to develop.

Should the models show similar tomorrow, I may also join you on the road!

Did enquire about the Netweather tours, but decided to try and get a group together instead. I'm heading out with 3 others on May 12th for 2 weeks so hopefully might run into some of you out there!

Dreaming of those big import night events this year! If EC 0z is anything to go by, we could be looking at a decent imported event next 10 days or so.

Still relatively sleety here in Wallingford, but seeing many more proper large white flakes.

Some heavier precipitation beginning to move in now, dewpoints are just above 0c but not massively so, so fingers crossed we can get a nice snow show!

Very little to show for here in Wallingford, seems to have lost its intensity really on approach. That saying, I feel our region may benefit more from this evenings action.