Ben Sainsbury

Chase is on the cards today. Going to head down to the M4 corridor, I think somewhere just west of Reading and that should give me plenty of time to make any calls. Mix of both really mate, for more active thunderstorms we do need some sunny spells to develop.

Should the models show similar tomorrow, I may also join you on the road!

Did enquire about the Netweather tours, but decided to try and get a group together instead. I'm heading out with 3 others on May 12th for 2 weeks so hopefully might run into some of you out there!

Dreaming of those big import night events this year! If EC 0z is anything to go by, we could be looking at a decent imported event next 10 days or so.

Still relatively sleety here in Wallingford, but seeing many more proper large white flakes.

Some heavier precipitation beginning to move in now, dewpoints are just above 0c but not massively so, so fingers crossed we can get a nice snow show!

Very little to show for here in Wallingford, seems to have lost its intensity really on approach. That saying, I feel our region may benefit more from this evenings action.

The UKV uses the same boundary conditions as the deterministic (UKMO) model. Therefore, you might expect the UKV to follow closer to the trend of the UKMO more often than not. So if the UKMO is "playing catch up" with the ECM, chances are the UKV might be as well. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/modelling-systems/unified-model/weather-forecasting

Unfortunately haven't got much time to post on here tonight as you can imagine work is... hectic! However, I am in agreement with what the Met O is going for over the next 36-48 hours. IMO, I think we'll see an Amber at some point, probably around the M4 corridor and covering Exmoor/Dartmoor/S Wales. Best of luck to you all and hope you get a nice covering of snow!

Not sure if already posted, but UKV 9z & AROME 6z decent for snow showers, Somerset, Bath into CS England tomorrow morning.

I really wouldn't rule this scenario out as I've seen it a number of times before. This would be the ultimate cherry on top, to prolong this very cold spell even further towards Christmas.

Much better set of GFS ensembles this morning, with confidence growing of the cold extending all the way through next week. After that some indications of a Scandi high developing, which may result in a temporary mild spell but it's all speculation at this point. Regarding the sliding low, it's better from all the main models today (bar the ICON, which is a bit further north), as we maintain a NE-ENE'ly flow. Admittedly, most of them produce little to no precipitation over the UK, but we know not to take these as gospel at this range. Now we await the EC!

GFS 6z at T114, slightly shallower and more elongated low in the Atlantic for sure. EDIT: Now deeper than 00z by T126 but remains further W.

The end of this run *could* be spectacular.

ICON beyond T180, if it were to exist, then imagine it would be a cracker. Sliding low across S England/N France, airmass over Scandinavia becoming increasingly colder, strong WAA towards Greenland too and the high strengthening further over Iceland. All a recipe for a very cold pattern over the UK.

Generally, the models have a decent grasp at the "big picture" but there's every chance the airmass might be a couple degrees warmer/colder, exactly as @Met4Cast highlighted in his previous post. One thing to add about observations too, is that observations at the surface are sparse enough as it is in the Arctic Circle. But observations at 1.5km height in the atmosphere in the Arctic Circle are even rarer.

And as these observations are fed into model through data assimilation. This is where a few people were talking before; because the Arctic is so observation-sparse, we really don't know the state of the atmosphere until the airmass makes it in range.

Just for fun, but after T384 it looks like another Scandi high developing, I think

Quite the opposite imo. If the GFS is anything to go by, the polar vortex is all over the shop and away from Greenland/Canada, which is the most important thing!

Purely for fun at this point, but what's that like a 980hPa low deepening well within the Arctic Circle at T318??

This is because the Norwegian/North Seas are both relatively mild (given the time of year & above average SSTs). So through the process of convection, heat is carried up through the atmosphere, leading then to modification of the air, which in this case making the airmass a little less cold.

By T192, here we go! Could be best run of the winter this. Some pretty significant WAA towards Greenland now too.

Absolute corker. Beginning to develop our own cold pool over the UK with the slack low overhead. Can see it since 850s aren't mixing out.

Not sure anyone can complain at tonights GFS run. The whole of the UK basically remains under -5C 850s throughout the entire run, let's ignore its outlandish path to getting there ey? Oh and to top it off, blizzard over Southern England at T360...

It definitely does form from a tropical wave, but judging by the runs today it doesn't look like it really deepens much until it approaches much closer to the UK, probably more akin to sub-tropical rather than tropical. That's my mistake.