[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

UKMO 06z has the PPN just clipping the south coast again, quite strange since its always shown it way to the south.

 

 

For 100 Miles of difference we have lost out. 

Heartbreaking.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

Was he the one forecasting a new ice age

He's claimed once a milenia events more than once.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

james mad man lol

He gets an insane amount of media attention considering he has never been right.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

James Madden thinks it will snow in February

James Madden thinks it will snow in August to be fair.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Just now, Gowon said:

I dunno.. he/she might be a hermaphrodite.

Intersex is the accepted term now. 

This thread has gone a weird directions

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

12 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

The Met Office still going with a chance of light snow grazing the South Coast  tomorrow morning.

Just goes to show how extremely close and unlucky we are to something decent

 

I think this is one of the closest no shows we have had in a fair while. Hurts all the more 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

2 minutes ago, Floatylight said:

I'd look at the track of that low on the radar, to the north of us right now  

It's very exciting.

Snow as low as chelmsford so far??

No chance! It would be biblical for the system to move that much.

Give me a bit of mild now and let me turn the heating off!

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

After that wonderful 12z yesterday the 18 and 00 have decided to kill any hope dead!

On the plus side it does mean I can go to bed without sitting watching the lamp post/radar for the next couple of nights.

Looks like a nice mild spell coming up which I am more than happy with tbh, all this cold with no result is just making me sad!

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

It’s a much better picture this evening. Wait for the 00z 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

3 minutes ago, snowblind said:

GEM seems to be the keenest on something across our region on Wednesday. Again pivoting the system into Kent and dragging something in across East Anglia.

The others are pretty much the same as previous runs, GFS just clipping into Kent. Icon and UKMO, a bit further south.

The 12z GFS is a huge upgrade for Kent and the south over the 06, we had no chance this morning and suddenly it’s back in play 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

15 minutes ago, Challock Weather said:

It would actually be funny if we did cop a decent fall on Weds after the dramas on the MAD thread... The toys that would be thrown 

Others have said here, though I wouldn’t dare say it on the Mod, but these patterns tend to move further north than predicted. 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

6 minutes ago, DEYS(Kent) said:

GFS 12z grazes the south coast. How many times have systems gone further north than forecast. Many times.

It’s already a huge upgrade for the entire south 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

 

It's only gone and done it! Kent back in firing line!

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Just now, tight isobar said:

A biblical turnaround needed now.. in saying that I wouldn’t be “ at all surprised” to see a gfs /icon compare… then the ecm chuck a northward twitch in..,,

Nothing shocks me anymore when it comes to watching the models

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Need to see it move north  from 30 hours.. good thing is that it will be settled by 4.  As  not watching rest of run and mildness post Saturday 

Will have to be a spectacular change.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Icon takes Wednesday perception south a smidge

Chances of any snowfall in south of region on back of that reduced from small to very small 

I think the 12Z is the big run now, if that doesn't make sudden changes I think we are out of a chance.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

9 minutes ago, MAF said:

Nah, just wake up and smell the coffee

Only slept 3 hours last night, the coffee is all that is keeping me on my feet!

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Just now, snowray said:

So close we can taste it!

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

That Storm looks like it could be quite something, if, it comes up

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

3 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Yep... 

My thoughts too..

It looks as if its going south.

Anyone calling the weekend storm further south as well yet?????

MIA

We have had plenty like it since 2018.

Of course this being model watching it will all change again at the 12Z and I will be popping the corks. 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

06Z GFS has decided to take the gradual northern correction it was making and throw it out the window!

Dead in the water as it stands.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Well despite all my confidence a few hours ago the 06Z GFS has shot down the tracking north. It has massively corrected it back down south. 

I think we can call this one another 'close but no cigar'

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

3 minutes ago, PiscesStar said:

Got to hope it tracks further north for us to benefit from it

With a few days to run moving 50 miles at a time over the runs will put it comfortably into the ballpark. 

I tried to not read the models too much over the weekend, a check between yesterday and today though shows it has moved up. We had nothing at all forecasted to drop on the Sunday runs, this morning the snow has crept back onto the south coast.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

8 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Indeed.. could go to the wire this one.  I've seen 50 miles shift on the day when comparing radar against what is forecasted t +0

Seen it more than a couple of times. 50 miles is next to nothing in terms of systems of this size.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

42 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

There’s still some uncertainty there , also as the front might pivot as the low tracks east so some precip could edge nw into the far se as that happens .

It is very frustrating as the snow could have lasted a while .

I’d give it till the end of today .

 

I still think this is very possible. There seems to have been a gradual pivot to the north over the past 24 hours of runs. Leading into the weekend everything had it going south into France ad being game over for the UK, there has been a slow but noticeable correction north since Midnight Saturday.