[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

11 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

Oh no! I imagine that’ll also be us on the south coast on Wednesday!  Hoping we all get to see a bit of snow this week.

Don't write it off yet! That low is slowly looking like it might clip us.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

A lot of negativity on here this morning, mostly looking into next week. I can appreciate that we are likely going into something more mild but we have a week of fun before then don't we?

In terms of this mornings runs to my untrained eye the low certainly has slipped a little more north, the south coast is now back in line for some snow and if we continue to see that pattern over the coming runs we could see much of the south of England coming back into play.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

GFS pivoting back after a fairly poor weekend of runs for SE snow. 

12z really only hitting the south coast but run by run it is moving back north.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Pub run has pivoted the low a little more north. Still not great but heading in a better direction 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

35 minutes ago, snowblind said:

Looks pretty similar to the previous run to me.

Almost exactly and rather implausible hugging the exact contours of the south coast all the way along and not really making landfall.

I found that very odd as well. The precipitation type chart is bizarre, like someone’s drawn a line along the coast. 
 

It has shifted the low slightly more north, hopefully we can see that begin to play out into tomorrows runs.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Sadly the latest Met forecast not looking good. Down to 25% chance it tracks into the South East now. Much more likely France get all the fun 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

It’s going to be a messy thread next week.

Us folk in Kent and south of London in with a shot; north of London looking increasingly unlikely. 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Still the models giving Kent a go, those north of Kent in our region are looking less likely but still in with a shot.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Kent really in firing line on todays models. Maybe even a few flakes Sunday night as well 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Think I might open the emergency gin tonight.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

2 hours ago, snowblind said:

Looks like the operational runs for all the models are pretty dry but there seem to be quite a few of the ensemble members that have more precipitation around so sending the low pressure further north. All is not lost quite yet perhaps.

Like you say, keep an eye on the met office updates and we'll know what the pros are thinking but still looks like quite a bit of uncertainty with the track of the low next week.

This the ensemble graph for the latest ECM run. You can see the precipitation spikes around the 17th along the bottom. Some ensemble members must take the low pretty for north as they introduce milder air as well 

Going to be interesting to see which models come out of this with egg on their face to be honest. The ECM seems to still fancy it but they are looking like the only one...

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Looking more likely this is a no show sadly. 

Met updates over the weekend are what we need to look out for, but I have a feeling the low is slipping south.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

28 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

So it's gone from a month-long freeze to a 5-day cold snap in that thread

Again, I wouldn't worry too much at this point. The reliable posters are still looking fairly confident, you have to skim through and find the trustworthy names!

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

1 minute ago, Methuselah said:

I wonder which iterations of Toy Story we'll be treated to today. . . 

I try to just skim the mod nowadays. It's too mad a lot of the time.

There are some superb posters, but the constant pillar to post is a bit much.

Saying all of the that the posters I tend to respect the most, especially Met4Cast and others are all still quite positive about next week.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

6 minutes ago, The Beast From The East said:

Well i just caught the Latest BBC local forcast 15 minutes ago for London and the SE and a very dissapointing outlook for next week. No mention of snow and only for average temperatures and heavy rain on Wednesday .... 

Beeb tend to keep the powder dry till close to the time. I am still on the fence myself but don't expect them to start pushing snowfall till late Monday at least.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

The GFS 00Z is not great for our area, reduced us to mild snowfall on Weds from what was very promising. 

Trying to not look at every run as there really won't be much clarity till back end of Sunday/Monday

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Met4cast still quite positive he’s not missed a beat this winter so far, called every event.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Just watched myself, Medway right in the firing line!

(It won't happen like that I can be sure!)

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Well folks I am sorry to say, but the Daily Mail are calling for a snowy south next week.

As such we can be sure of 20 degree temps and sunshine.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

40 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

I'm happy where the low is predicted at the moment, as lawrenk states more often than not they drop further South.

If it had us slap bang on the money at this stage, you know what would happen! Plenty of ups and downs to come, not worth worrying about just yet, will take things more seriously by the weekend.

 

A good point

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

53 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

Not trending particularly well for us in the S next week, though, hopefully, the low will be much further south than currently shown, which often tends to be the case.

I think it was March 2013 when the “sweet spot”, having initially thought to have been the Midlands, turned out to be the Channel Islands!

Very much depends on that low. We might be nursing a scotch and lamenting what could have been next week. I have to say I am not sure about this one for the SE. I think the sweet spot is going to land bang in the Midlands.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Next week still to play for and two snowfall days thus far this winter.

We would all like more but we are already better than some of the dreadful years of late.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

2 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Yes I am surprised actually that some areas got as much as they have . Great to see.

Don't say that I just conceded defeat LOL

It’s early days but it looks plausible 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Possible Thames streamer starting to form on radar?

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

A decent shot at some real convective showers tonight as the temps drop. Everything crossed.