throwoff
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Posts posted by throwoff
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Wouldn't be a NW mod thread without people panicking over the breakdown of an event before it has even started.
It is still looking like a nice little spell. Much better than we have had for a long time.
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I am starting to think we might do better than previously expected. Lots of scope for convection over the sea blowing in land.
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We are still in the game, the block looks like it might last. I’m hoping we see a bit of a change over the next few runs to bring us into the fun
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17 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:
Let's not!
Care to expand?
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Living in Kent can’t say I’m totally happy yet. Let’s move that snow a little further south and east and bingo
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13 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:
Stronger blocking so cold would be extended and looks like it would roll over into a direct northerly later on in FI
It’s really getting close to being nailed on territory this.
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Absolute gold charts today. Come on the Friday night pub run!
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22 minutes ago, Bricriu said:
To be honest from an imby perspective I would be one of those happier people. I would much rather cold and dry than cold and wet. Although I appreciate others who could be on the right side of the cold boundary in a marginal setup will see it alot differently!
With the flooding we have had up and down the country if we are not seeing snowfall I would much rather a boring cold and dry.
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Just now, northwestsnow said:
18z = bucket loads of rain.
lolz
Pub run, don’t trust it
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1 minute ago, mulzy said:
It’s gone tits up because someone broke ranks! Own up whoever it is…
I may have mentioned to the receptionist in passing that there might be a bit of snow coming…..
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Just now, Metwatch said:
I'm probably in the minority here but unless there's snow or crisp sunshine, I can't stand the cold, so watching each run (I check every run without any breaks) is a sort of good laugh when they change all the time and throw up all sorts of chaos.
Nothing wrong with that. Magic of the weather. We all have our favourites, and from time to time we get to experience all of it!
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Just now, andy989 said:
Let us know when he does
To be completely honest he’s on retirement run down, he works from home nearly exclusively now. If I hear anything I’ll let you know. He did confirm the queen was dead about 45 minutes before the news announced it though
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2 minutes ago, MJB said:
I will come out with the obligatory comment
" The MET are looking at more data than we are, they must be seeing something " lol
It’s a fair comment to make though. I think people forget that the MET have private business interests supplying groups like railways and airlines. They have to be accurate. My dad works for the rail, I don’t believe snowfall till he tells me he has had the email at work.
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4 minutes ago, Downburst said:
Latest ECM shows the air flow in north Atlantic end of run. Looks nice. Not arguing about snow though
If there is a Netweather motto it has to be 'get the cold in first'
Looks like we are half way there which is a lot closer than we have been for a long time.
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GFS has gone completely white out for next Friday into the weekend for much of the country. An insane chart.
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Just now, Northwest NI said:
Is it ok to give GFS credit yet for sniffing something different out at least a week ago, when everything else pointed to “more of the same”.
A little more respect in future for this model.
GFS tends to jump the shark with snowfall, hence why people tend to give it a bad rep in winter.
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3 minutes ago, MJB said:
At 210 .....................irrelevant really, the general theme still continues
Exactly this. There are changes run to run but the theme has been consistent for some time. Something is brewing.
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Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:
A little messy this run...not as good as the brilliant 0z ..but still a cold/very cold outlook!
the 06 and the 18 really don't do themselves many favours with being seen as the difficult child compared to the 12 and 00 do they?
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3 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:
Two things stand out this morning. 1/ A blocked pattern , so an end at least for a while of flooding issues...
2/ Potential , for outbreaks of notable cold as we move into early December.
Of course ,it's a very complicated set up and models always struggle with this scenario,and details will change daily ,but that is the trend for now, but the main thing I'm glad about is the break in the relentless rains of recent months, that alone is worth a mention!☺
The end of the flooding will be a godsend for many.
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Just now, Met4Cast said:
It picked up the pattern change, yes, but there’s no denying it initially was well out with the amount of amplification. I don’t see why it’s an issue to point that out?
I think you have fallen foul of the realists curse mate. Your posts thus far have been pretty on the money.
Why people are calling you out just as it appears you are starting to support something cold brewing is beyond me though...
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First time in a few years we have had a cross model agreement under +200 that something is brewing.
METO saying a crisp 6 degrees in my neck of the woods this time last year we had 13...
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1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:
Worth dropping the latest MetO FAX charts in here too;
A glancing blow. Colder than of late with widespread frosts, perhaps some wintriness over the hillier parts of Scotland, at least it'll feel seasonal.
I think it’s worth quoting this and mentioning we are in November, coming off what most would agree has been a poor run of winters and we are seeing a cold spell, some northern snow and frost. It might not be the Easterly blizzards so many of us want but I think many of us would have given our back teeth for this kind of cold for the past 5 winters.
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Very interesting to go through the GFS snow risk charts. They are normally a rampers paradise with huge undefined blobs all over the UK.
For the entire run with the exception of some Scottish hill snow there isn't a pixel. A huge rollback from them.
I'll take a glancing cold this early in the season for now.
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SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion
in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion
Posted
London always hard to call.
The Medway snow shield might wreck this one for people in my neck of the woods too.