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Ice BIast

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Everything posted by Ice BIast

  1. Ice BIast
    Light snow starting here
  2. Ice BIast
    Yes please!
  3. Ice BIast
    To be honest RJS, many people on here are probably just talking about other forecasts more because of a cold January being forecast, which many prefer over a cold February, so everyone is focusing on these forecasts, at least for now. I for one rate your forecasts very highly though, and I'm sure that many others see you among the top long range forecasters too.
  4. Ice BIast
    Indeed this is a problem. I just think though that GP's forecast shouldn't be called "a bust", as he forecasted the general pattern well, and for anyone to expect him to forecast things down to fine detail from at least a couple of weeks away is just silly. Remember that just a tiny shortwave made a big difference to our weather during the height rises to the NE, something that cannot be forecast by any long range forecaster.
  5. Ice BIast
    GP's Dec forecast looks OK to me, his forecast for 500HPa heights fits the actual anomaly for December so far... http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/compday.90.201.160.178.358.2.18.32.gif
  6. Ice BIast
    Let's hope so. The MJO isn't doing us any favours currently, sticking around phase 3 for a while yet.
  7. Ice BIast
    The warming clearly looks happy about what it's done on that run, it's grinning at us! Seriously though, if a warming were to happen, then how much time lag would there be in this case before we start seeing tropospheric impact?
  8. Ice BIast
    Wave 1 activity is forecast to increase again to 1400 at day 10. Looks like the vortex wont be able to relax for a while!
  9. Ice BIast
    The GFS 00Z maintains the theme.
  10. Ice BIast
    I found this 30 HPa chart interesting. As well as showing the main part of the PV moving towards Siberia, it also shows a lobe of PV near Iceland, tracking quickly east. Once this lobe has cleared east, towards Scandinavia, that would open the door for height rises to the NW would it not?
  11. Ice BIast
    So great runs this morning. However, comparing the ECM to yesterdays 12Z, the high over western Russia is further south, which means that any easterly would be sourced from a more SErly direction. Also, the troughing over Europe is getting modelled further North every run, and we don't want it to be any further north than it is as it would prevent an Easterly airflow and also disrupt the Scandi high.
  12. Ice BIast
    It's in exactly the same place as the ECM so far. Don't worry.
  13. Ice BIast
    The ECM JMA combo is EPIC. ECM: JMA:
  14. Ice BIast
    The GEM is really similar to the UKMO at T144.
  15. Ice BIast
    You're probably right because before other cold spells, when the GFS and UKMO finally agreed on something, the ECM always changed its mind at the same time to something milder. Lets hope that today will be an exception.
  16. Ice BIast
    Wow brilliant runs this morning, showing some great synoptics. Now its the GFS, ECM, JMA, and GEM vs the UKMO and NOGAPS, so looking good. The only way it could improve IMO is to have better cold pooling to the east. Then it really would be perfect.
  17. Ice BIast
    Agreed, and the high near the UK is postioned differently ridging NW rather than NE, so a bit different to the ECM and UKMO. Could be a good run this.
  18. Ice BIast
    Another point to add is that the PV looks a lot different at T240. There certainly doesn't appear to be a strong signal from the ENS for the PV to be moving over Greenland like on the operational.
  19. Ice BIast
    Well the ECM ENS mean at T168 looks a bit better than the operational - a bit further west.
  20. Ice BIast
    The PV really bigs up at T216, so the high just gets bulldozed out of the way.
  21. Ice BIast
    Now then, lets see if we get an undercut this time.
  22. Ice BIast
    ....That is ridiculously good! Plenty of very cold runs there. Frosty's animation is perfect for this situation.
  23. Ice BIast
    I wouldn't be too saddened by the ECM run. Can't complain with that.
  24. Ice BIast
    The run looks fine at T168. That low should move south.
  25. Ice BIast
    The BOM could be a useful tool tonight. It looks similar to the UKMO at T144, so it will be interesting to see where it goes beyond this.
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