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Ice BIast

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Everything posted by Ice BIast

  1. Ice BIast
    The development of that low to the west is very different on the ECM.
  2. Ice BIast
    Things look less good to the west on the 6Z, but the trough over europe moves further east, drawing colder uppers into scandinavia. If things were better to the west, then some potent uppers could arrive on our shores.
  3. Ice BIast
    And the difference to the operational is simply that there is no shortwave disrupting the cold airflow and the block to the NE can advance. Lets hope the 0Z drops that shortwave.
  4. Ice BIast
    Early days, but the 18Z already looks a bit better to me at T60, making less of that shortwave to the north and there's more WAA going north.
  5. Ice BIast
    The ECM ENS at T144 is very good in my opinion, with the troughing over europe further south than the operational.
  6. Ice BIast
    Does anyone know if the GME is any good, because its T72 chart looks quite good with no shortwave stopping the block to the NE from advancing towords us. It may only go up to T72, but we have approached a period where this time range could be important.
  7. Ice BIast
    Meanwhile, the BOM continues to follow the UKMO: Also, the ECM looks like it could send up more WAA north for 144h.
  8. Ice BIast
    I see that the forecasted wave 1 activity is getting higher. Looks good. But how big does the activity need to be to cause major vortex disruption?
  9. Ice BIast
    The 18Z looks similar to the UKMO regarding the trough sinking into Europe.
  10. Ice BIast
    Oh my!
  11. Ice BIast
    De Bilt ensembles: http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png
  12. Ice BIast
    Decent ECM ensemble charts, with heights reaching greenland, unlike the operational:
  13. Ice BIast
    Not much, but a nice chart all the same.
  14. Ice BIast
    The BOM 12Z is loaded with blocking, and it retrogresses the high towards Greenland in the latter part of the run.
  15. Ice BIast
    A direct hit for the UK on this run.
  16. Ice BIast
    It's the blocking over greenland. Its not too often you see red on these charts in that area.
  17. Ice BIast
    I had to post this run from one of the GEFS ensemble members, its just insane! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=13&mode=0&carte=1
  18. Ice BIast
    The ECM ensemble mean at 240h is very good. Thats quite a good signal for blocking considering it's a mean chart.
  19. Ice BIast
    This what you're looking for Steve?
  20. Ice BIast
    They might not be the best models, but both the BOM and JMA 12Z's look decent.
  21. Ice BIast
    I wouldn't speak so soon. Anything is possible so lets just wait and see.
  22. Ice BIast
    The ECM ensembles are still trending quite a bit colder in the extended range: http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim
  23. Ice BIast
    Indeed, lows are dotted all over the place, a complete mess. I would say that the important thing to look at is the amount of ampliflication in the nearer time frame, rather than details around scandi for now. The GFS can't handle these situations at this range.
  24. Ice BIast
    Typical of the GFS. Regardless of this though, it still looks like a better run.
  25. Ice BIast
    The 12Z looks more amplified than the 6Z. http://modeles.meteo...fs-0-150.png?12
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