Ice BIast

Is the signal for blocking on the 32 dayer strong Matt?

Big changes in the small low in the atlantic - much weaker and takes much longer to travel east. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2012111318/gfs-0-114.png?18 Surely this will have an effect down the line.

I thought I'd throw in todays JMA. Lots of potential for cold on this chart. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2012111312/JN192-21.GIF?13-12

If only!

And indeed it does, resulting in this nice looking chart:

Interesting, the LP in the atlantic looks like it would stall and send WAA north. A better run from the GFS IMO.

I believe so, it surprised me too though! Although if I remember correctly, this applies to -ve mountain torque events, and +ve events speed up the earths rotation. Someone correct me if im wrong.

That low in the mid atlantic is quite weak again at 144h on the ECM. Could be quite similar to the 0z.

I know its a long way out, but I find this chart a bit concerning. If you look at the forecasts of this model from previous years, the temperature forecasts have been, IMO, very poor, at least for our latitude anyway. However, looking at the forecasts of the 500z geopotential height, they are significantly better than the temperature ones. The model correctly predicted the blocking that occured in 2009/2010 from as early as September: and the November to December 2010 blocking: as well as the lack of 2011/2012 blocking: However, the temperature forecasts arent so great, for example, 2009/2010 again at the same time as the first chart: So I do think that this model has performed well at modelling heights, just take no notice of those temperatures!

Yes, its quite a deep low, so it just ploughs straight into the ridge, stopping it from building north.

Not a bad chart, heights trying to build north and a good angle on the jet

Its interesting that both of those charts show the core of the vortex moving to siberia. Lets hope that they are on to something as that would open the door to high latitude blocking on our side of the NH.

In FI, but nice to see nonetheless:

TBH, I wouldn't be too unhappy with the output from today. Sure, its looking pretty mild in the next couple of weeks, but there is still little sign of a strong PV, and if I understand GP correctly, the heights to the east (If it verifies) could cause wavebreaking in the strat and potentially result in cold later on anyway. I wouldn't get downbeat yet.

Oh I thought you meant the seasonal model (glosea) . I must be too tired to post! Thanks anyway.

Could you provide a link please? I cant find it.

ECM looks interesting:

Yes, but I've never seen these week charts before and would just like to keep an eye on them, to see if they are any better at picking up trends.

Does anyone have a link for those CFS v2 week charts? Thanks in advance

Indeed. It doesnt quite make sense to me either. You would think that the airflow has to be from an easterly quadrant though in order for scotland to have below average snowfall.

If you mean an archive for past model output, there are archives for the GFS, UKMO, and ECM on meteociel: http://www.meteociel...ode=0&archive=1 http://www.meteociel...&archive=1&nh=0 http://www.meteociel...map=0&archive=1 Hope this helps

PV in pieces at 240h on the ECM

Looks like they've seen the updated ECM 32 dayer