Somerset Squall

Pali is now a category 2 hurricane with winds of 85kts. The hurricane's eye is cloud filled but well defined, and remains flanked by a solid central dense overcast and strong banding. The hurricane is moving back south towards the equator. Pali is expected to reach just 3°N before turning to the west. It is unclear on just how Pali will respond to being so close to the equator. The official forecast still has Pali as a hurricane in 5 days time, crossing the dateline into the Western Pacific.

Pali has become the earliest hurricane on record to form in the Central Pacific, and indeed the northern hemipshere for that matter, with winds of 75kts. Another record shattered! The previous record holder was Ekeka in 1992, which became a hurricane on the 30th January.

13 day old Ula is now slipping southwards out of the tropics and will accelerate southeastwards whilst completing extratropical transition tomorrow. Winds are down to 65kts currently, and further weakening will occur as Ula transitions, but it will still be a fairly potent extratropical storm. Looks like Ula will hold on long enough as a tropical system to make it 2 weeks old. Interesting storm to track with the very unpredictable intensity!

Pali has developed an eye feature, and winds are now at 60kts. It seems likely Pali will become a hurricane before shear increases in about 24hrs. This shear will weaken Pali, but Pali will still be over very warm water so weakening will be slow. Beyond 72hrs, shear may well ease again, which could allow for another intensification phase, if Pali doesn't get too close to the equator. Quite a brisk westwards motion is expected at this time, bringing Pali close to the dateline by day 5. Impressive little system!

Pali weakened to 40kts. The storm began slowly drifting towards the east, but has since ground to a halt again. It has however, restrengthened to 55kts as shear has lessened and waters remain warm at this low lattitude. There is a chance, over the next 36hrs, that the shear may remain low enough for Pali to become a minimal hurricane, though NHC forecast a 60kt peak in this time (top end tropical storm). As Pali then accelerates southwest towards the equator again, it will weaken, though at day 5 it is expected to still be a 35kt tropical storm just 3°N of the equator. By Day 9 of Pali's life (if it is still around as the forecasts say it will be), Pali won't be very far from where it started!

Ula passing east of New Caledonia with 115kt winds: It's lucky that a cyclone has intense as Ula has largely avoided the most populated areas on it's twisty track.

Ula has become a category 4 on the SS scale, with winds of 115kts. This makes it even more unbelievable that forecasts called for Ula to dissipate after it started properly weakening first time.

For the third time, long lived Ula has reached an intensity of 90kts, cat 2 on the SS scale. The tiny cyclone maintains a fairly large but quite well defined eye this morning. Some additional intensification is expected in the next 24hrs before Ula recurves southeast into cooler waters and higher shear, inducing extratropical transition. Interesting track:

Pali strengthened to 55kts, but has since weakened to 50kts due to shear. Convection is scarce and is being sheared to the west of the LLCC. Shear is expected to ease over the next day or so, meaning Pali probably won't dissipate. However, troughing will impinge on Pali, supressing outflow, meaning that a very slow weakening trend will continue for the next 5 days. Steering currents are weak. Pali is forecast to drift west then south as it becomemore involved with the trough. The southward motion will put Pali rather near the equator again by day 5.

Against all forecasts, Ula has strengthened significantly, and winds are back up at 80kts. The small system has regained a well developed eye. JTWC now forecast a new peak intensity of 110kts in the next 36hrs. 5 days ago, Ula was forecast to be a weakening 35kt system at this point, so the environment has certainly changed in the area.

10 day old Ula continues to restrengthen. Winds are up to 55kts. Ula is now forecast to become a hurricane strength system again before recurving southeast and ultimately becoming extratropical.

01C has intensified to 45kts, and has become Tropical Storm Pali.

The central pacific continues to throw up oddities with a very rare January cyclone formation today. This has happened before, Hurricane Ekeka from 1992 springs to mind. But 01C's formation in the Central Pacific basin, at this time of year, is a very rare event indeed. Coming off the back of the most active Central Pacific season on record too! 01C is located in the southwest of the basin, at around 170°W, and well southwest of Hawaii. The 30kt depression has a strong satellite signature with very deep convection and strong banding features. I think an upgrade to Tropical Storm status is coming very soon. Moderate shear is affecting 01C, meaning strengthening should be slow. CPHC are forecasting a peak of 45kts, though this could end up being too conservative. It looks like the window for strengthening is limited to a few days, as shear levels are forecast to rise significantly then. The depression is moving slowly northwestwards. This motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Thereafter, there is considerable uncertainty due to the potential interaction between 01C and a developing trough. An eastward motion is forecast in a few days, though the track is subject to great uncertainty. It looks like 01C will remain in the Central Pacific however, and not cross into the Western Pacific.

Ula is still alive, currently at 45kts and moving northwest after it's southwestward dip. Convection largely vanished over the system yesterday, as dry air and strong shear eroded Ula. Convection has returned over Ula today as the cyclone remains over warm water and has moved into an area of reduced shear. Ula is forecast to slip southwest again in a few days, which will weaken the system again in a few days.

Ula did not strengthen beyond 90kts as shear rose and weakened the cyclone. Since, Ula has had a second peak of winds at 90kts, and has once more weakened slightly to 85kts. The cyclone will weaken slowly over the coming days as shear slowly increases once more. The track forecast is pretty interesting, with a sessation in poleward movement and a track west favoured. By day 5, Ula should be a very weak system if current forecasts verify, however.

Shear has caused 09C to be downgraded to a remnant trough. The circulation was always hard to pinpoint as shear caused the system to be elongated and poorly organised. But now, there is not a viable one to track. Regeneration is possible if the system moves west into lower shear, but for now at least, 09C is no more.

Ula has rapidly strengthened, and winds are up to 90kts, a cat 2 on the SS scale. The cyclone has developed a small eye, embedded in the small, circular central dense overcast. Further quick strengthening is expected, and I think a cat 4 peak on the SS scale is possible.

Well, the record breaking Central Pacific had to have one final say. The latest forming Tropical Cyclone on record in the basin has formed just east of the dateline and just north of the equator. Strong shear will inhibit development at first, but then should ease as 09C pushes into the Western Pacific. More later. EDIT: Two other records have fallen too in addition to the latest Central Pacific formation. 09C marks the latest a tropical cyclone has formed in the northern Hemisphere, and it is also the lowest lattitude forming system of the Central/Eastern Pacific.

Tropical Cyclone Ula has formed in the southern Pacific, about 300 miles east-northeast of Pago Pago, American Samoa. Winds are estimated at 45kts according to JTWC. Ula has intense central convection, flanked by impressive banding features. The cyclone is currently heading southwards on the west side of a ridge to the east. The cyclone is poised to strengthen, perhaps rapidly. Shear is low, and Ula is experiencing good, radial outflow. Based on Ula's well organised convective pattern, I'd say it won't be long before Ula is a hurricane strength system, especially as an eye feature appears to be emerging already. The southward track will continue at first, but Ula is expected to be then steered by a building ridge to the south, which will drive the cyclone to the west. In 4 to 5 days time, Ula should head southwest as it reaches the western periphery of the ridge.

As expected, Melor is falling apart quickly in the South China Sea. Winds are down to 40kts. Shear and dry air will soon dissipate Melor as it drifts southwestwards away from Luzon.

Melor did not strengthen beyond 115kts before it's initial landfall yesterday. However, it has done something unexpected. As it threads it's way through the islands of the Central Philippines, it has strengthened and attained an intensity of 125kts. The eye has remained over water generally over the last 12hrs, allowing for this intensification. Once Melor heads out into the South China Sea, weakening will be rapid due to strong shear and dry air.

The rapid strengthening episode is not over. Winds have reached 115kts, a cat 4 on the SS scale. Melor is now expected to become a 135kt super typhoon before slamming into the central Philippines. This is not good news at all.

Melor has rapidly strengthened and is now a 90kt, cat 2 typhoon. The typhoon has developed a well defined eye. Further intensification is expected, with cat 3 status forecast by JTWC before Melor slams into the Philippines.

A december tropical storm has rapidly formed east of the Philippines. Winds are at 45kts. The storm is rapidly consolidating, with tight convective banding features and healthy central convection. Conditions are ripe for further rapid strengthening with very low shear, superb radial outflow and warm sea temperatures. A west-northwesterly track is expected into the Philippines, so Melor needs closely watching. Melor could be quite a strong typhoon at landfall...

05S became Moderate Tropical Storm Bohale yesterday, but has since been downgraded to a tropical depression by MeteoFrance. JTWC have upped the winds to 40kts, very much still storm status. Conditions are marginal, with lukewarm sea temps, moderate shear but good poleward outflow. For the next day or so, conditions will remain unchanged, so little change in strength is forecast. The southward track will then take Bohale over colder waters and increased shear, inducing a dissipation trend.