Somerset Squall

JTWC has upgraded this system to a 35kt tropical cyclone. 04A has a well defined LLCC with increasing convection and tightly wound banding features. Shear is low, waters warm, and outflow good. Based on this, and the well organised structure of 04A, rapid intensification is a possibility. A general west to west-northwesterly track is expected as 04A is steered by ridging to the north, and a landfall is expected near the Oman/Yemen border, potentially as a significant cyclone. One to watch!

Olaf became the first storm on record to form in the Eastern Pacific, cross into the Central Pacific and then back into the Eastern Pacific. Tenacious Olaf has finally ceased to be a tropical cyclone today as it has lost all it's convection.

Olaf is still out there, a 105kt cat 3 hurricane currently. Shear is gradually increasing as the hurricane moves northeast. Sea temperatures are gradually declining aswell, so further slow weakening is expected. In 5 days time, Olaf is still expected to be alive, but only as a tropical depression, and may turn back to the west as ridging builds to the north.

Yeah, I mentioned that this morning, but it's definitely worth mentioning again. It's truly amazing!

Sorry yeah, should have included the mph. For some reason I prefer working in knots with tropical cyclones.

Not really no. Though Patricia has weakened slightly as it approaches land, when we are talking about winds that strong it won't make any difference.

Winds down to 165kts, pressure up to 900mb. Doesn't make a difference for Mexico though Feels weird saying "winds down to 165kts".

Patricia has broken records for how quickly it strengthened. Pressure fell by 100mb in 24hrs.

Katrina peaked at 150kts with pressure of 902mb. So yeah, Patricia is much stronger.

I might have missed that, just going by the NHC intermediate advisory. I suspect that the pressure may have been even lower than this this afternoon when the cloud tops were even colder than they are now.

Thanks Timmy. I certainly didn't expect this. My original posts say how I thought the inital forecast peak of 85kts was probably going to be too low, but I never would have thought Patricia would reach 175kts!

For the nerds (most of us), pressure has fallen by 1mb in the latest recon mission, down to 879mb, extending the record.

The most intense winds will be felt over a very small area, but what people don't seem to realise is that the still damaging winds, major storm surge and rains and associated flooding and mudslides will be felt over a much larger area. It's not just the core of Patricia that is dangerous, even though that is where the very worst of the conditions will be...

Reading stuff like that makes me sad Milkmaid. NOTHING is safe from winds of this magnitude. It's pure ignorance to think otherwise

Crazy to think people are deciding to ride this thing out. Best of luck to them. I don't fancy their chances.

Latest imagery. Still a perfectly defined eye, so I expect winds haven't changed much since recon left.

Also, this is the fastest deepening tropical cyclone on record in the satellite era, 980mb this time yesterday to 880mb now.

Pressure has fallen to 880mb according to the NHC ATCF, with sustained winds of 175kts. This makes Patricia the most intense hurricane ever observed in the western hemipshere, and the first tropical cyclone on record to have winds CONFIRMED at this strength (175kts). RECON are leaving Patricia now (probably running low on fuel) but Patricia could still be intensifying.

RECON going for another entry, pressure still seems to be falling, I don't think Patricia is done strengthening yet...

Oh my god! Patricia has become the most intense hurricane in recorded history for the Eastern Pacific. Winds have been measured at 160kts, and a central pressure of 892mb has been recorded. This surpasses the previous record holder Linda in 1997, which had a 160kt, 900mb peak. I thought Patricia would become a category 5, but it didn't even cross my mind that it would become the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record! Patricia is forecast to make landfall at category 5 intensity too, a rare feat for this basin. Absolutely incredible. Patricia has gone from tropical storm to 160kt category 5 hurricane in a little over 24hrs. When I posted this time yesterday, Patricia was a 65kt cat 1 hurricane. That is truly explosive intensification. I'm blown away. My thoughts go out to everyone in the path of this monster.

Scary. It's clear Patricia is still intensifying. I really wouldn't be surprised to see Patricia make category 5 status.

Patricia has intensified very quickly due to a very favourable environment and sea temperatures of about 31°C. Sea temperatures this high over such a large area are probably influenced by El Nino. El Nino is probably to blame for us having a record number of cat 4/5's across the entire Pacific for 2015.

Now 22 with Patricia attaining cat 4 status. The record just keeps being broken, now by a larger margin! And I think we will get more for sure!

Advisory just come out upgrading Patricia to a 115kt, category 4 major hurricane, based on RECON data. This beast is going mental! And on course for land. This looks very dangerous indeed. Further intensification is expected as Patricia remains in low shear and waters of 30C for the next 24hrs.

Patricia is intensifying rapidly. Winds are up to 85kts, a category 2 hurricane. Based on latest satellite imagery, Patricia may well be a major hurricane in the next advisory. The hurricane has developed a pinhole eye, embedded in a very solid central dense overcast, flanked by very strong banding. This is going to have a major impact on Mexico.