Somerset Squall

Another tropical cyclone has formed in the South Indian Ocean, in the east of the basin. Uriah formed yesterday, west of Cocos Island, in Australia's area of responsibility, hence it was named by them. Winds are at 45kts according to JTWC. Uriah is forecast to head west-southwest over the coming days and continue to strengthen as shear is low and waters plenty warm. Thereafter, a southward bend in track is predicted as Uriah rounds the western side of the steering ridge. This will force Uriah over cooler waters by day 5, inducing weakening. JTWC are forecasting Uriah to peak at cat 2 hurricane strength. Uriah will cross 90E and into MeteoFrance's area of responsibility later today. Uriah should not affect land.

Winston peaked at 110kts. The cyclone has weakened due to increased shear. As I mentioned before though, in the longer term, restrengthening is forecast as Winston moves back into low shear warm water conditions. Some further weakening is forecast before this occurs however.

Tatiana has strengthened to 55kts according to JTWC. The cyclone has probably peaked as the rapidly intensifying Severe Tropical Cyclone Winston to the east is not only inflicting shear over Tatiana, it is also stifling it's outflow. Tatiana has made the southward turn and will weaken from now.

Daya is no longer for this world as it continues southeastwards into cold waters and high shear. JTWC have issued their final warning.

Winston has rapidly intensified and now has 1-min sustained winds estimated at 95kts, a high end cat 2 on the SS scale. The severe cyclone has developed a small, well defined eye that has recently cleared out. Further rapid strengthening is likely.

11P has been named Winston and now has winds of 55kts according to JTWC. Further rapid strengthening is expected as shear is low, waters hot (at around 31°C) and outflow excellent. JTWC are forecasting a peak of 110kts, though there is a chance that Winston could become stronger than this. Winston is forecast to head generally south along the western side of a ridge to the east. It will then turn eastwards as the cyclone reaches the south side of the ridge. By day 5, JTWC forecast a northeastwards motion as Winston reaches the southeast side of the ridge. It seems like Winston won't be moving out of the tropics beyond day 5 if this track verifies, instead, pushing north back into warmer water. Winston will have weakened by this point as it will habe traversed cooler waters, but JTWC forecast the weakening to stop by day 5.

Daya has strengthened to 45kts. The storm is already showing signs of weakening however, with degrading convection in the northern quadrant due to increasing shear and cooling sea temps on the poleward track. Weakening is forecast from here as Daya slips out of the tropics.

Another tropical cyclone has formed in the Southern Pacific, in the Coral Sea, northwest of New Caledonia. Winds are at 45kts according to JTWC. Shear is currently low, waters warm and outflow good. For the next 24hrs, this should allow for Tatiana to intensify. Thereafter, weakening will occur as Tatiana tracks south along the western flank of a steering ridge to the east, which will send Tatiana into cooler waters and increased shear. JTWC expect a peak of 55kts before this occurs.

A new tropical cyclone has formed east of the islands of Vanuatu. Winds are at 35kts according to JTWC. The system has rapidly consolidated, and further rapid strengthening is expected as shear is low, waters warm, and 11P is benefitting from good radial outflow. JTWC expect a peak of 105kts on the south-southeast track, before cooler waters and increased shear begin to weaken 11P. It is perhaps quite lucky therefore that the current forecast track keeps the potentially intense 11P's core away from land. However, it is a big system, so rains will affect Vanuatu and Fiji from this system (and to some extent, New Caledonia).

After another lull in activity, the next named storm of the season has formed, off the southeast coast of Madagascar. Daya has winds of 35kts. The storm has well developed banding and some moderately deep convection over the LLCC. Due to it's fairly high latitude, Daya is not far from cooler waters, so the window for strengthening is small. JTWC expect a peak of 50kts before Daya slips southeast out of the tropics.

Stan's peak was 65kts at at landfall.

Stan has continued to intensify and has winds of 65kts according to JTWC. A weak eye has emerged from the central dense overcast. Shear has lessened now, so some further intensification is likely before landfall just of Port Hedland in about 12hrs.

The first tropical cyclone to form in the Australian area of responsibility has formed off the coast of NW Australia. Stan has winds of 45kts according to JTWC. The storm has deep, centralised convection and well developed banding features. Outflow is excellent, which is reducing the impact of moderate shear in the area. Landfall is expected on the Pilbara coast in about 36hrs, could be a hurricane strength system at landfall if the current rate of intensification continues.

Corentin only peaked at 75kts. The storm has now weakened to 50kts as it heads into cooler waters and high shear. These two factors will being about Corentin's demise in about 24hrs.

Corentin has strengthened significantly over the last 24hrs, and now has winds of 70kts according to JTWC. The cyclone has developed a large eye feature and tightly wrapped banding. JTWC now expect a peak of 95kts.

Victor veered west after I posted and began weakening. JTWC have issued their last warning on the system has it has been sheared apart. Winds associated with the low are 30kts. Regeneration is not expected.

The south indian ocean has awoken from it's slumber with a new tropical storm, named Corentin, located in the central south indian ocean, about 500 miles south of Diego Garcia. Winds are at 35kts. Strengthening is expected, as shear is set to ease, and waters are warm along track. Corentin's peak is expected to be 90kts according to JTWC, before Corentin slips south into cooler water and increased shear with the increasing lattitude. Corentin is not expected to affect land.

Victor has strengthened slower than anticipated, but now has winds of 90kts. Victor has probably peaked as it will soon be moving over cooler waters before veering to the west and weakening.

Alex is now extratropical. The remnant low is forecast to deepen over the next day or so, and will indeed have sustained winds of hurricane force. However, Alex is no longer actually a hurricane. Amazing system! Something that caught me completely off guard, and a lot of other people too. I remember model runs indicating this low to form, and reading that people were hypothesising this low would be extratropical. No-one expected a fully fledged hurricane, and a decent looking one at that! One for the history books. And there is bound to be a lot of study going into Alex and it's formation. I absolutely love when quirky things like this happen, it's fascinating, especially when it shocks us all like this hurricane has.

Victor has rapidly strengthened over the last 12 hours and now has winds of 65kts according to JTWC. The cyclone has developed a large and ragged eye. Conditions are near perfect for intensification, with low shear, warm waters, and excellent outflow. Therefore, further rapid intensification is expected as Victor moves south. JTWC now expect a peak of 115kts.

Well it's apparent how Pali has handled moving so close to the equator, and the answer is, not well. The system got sheared apart (in part due to the proximity of Tropical Cyclone 07P in the Southern Pacific). The remnants still lurk at 1°N, but there is no longer a closed circulation as it got stretched out. The remnants will probably fully dissipate on the equator, but there is a small chance if regeneration if they decide to move west.

Another tropical cyclone has formed in the Southern Pacific, hot on the heels of Tropical Cyclone Ula. 07P has winds of 35kts and is located east of American Samoa and is moving southwards along the western peiphery of a ridge to the east. This ridge is expected to remain in control of 07P over the next few days, maintaining the southward motion. Conditions are very favourable for development, with low shear, excellent outflow and very warm waters beneath the system. Rapid intensification is a distinct possibility over the next few days. JTWC expecta peak of 100kts before cooler waters and increased shear weaken 07P.

Wow, and forecast to peak at 80kts! That's some cold and unstable air aloft to support such a system over cold waters such as Alex is over. Wow!!!

We need to be careful with terminology here. Alex is being classified as a 60kt subtropical storm. Whilst it may look like a hurricane, it is not classified as one. Though it is a damn good looking subtropical storm I have to say!

This is the fourth incidence if a named storm FORMING in January (others have persisted into January), so this gives you an idea of just how rare Alex's formation is. And yes, quite incredible with the Central Pacific Hurricane Pali still active too. And the Western Pacific is quiet. If there is any northern hemisphere basin out of the 4 you would expect to see a tropical or subtropical cyclone in January, it would be the Western Pacific. Certainly not the Central Pacific or the Atlantic!