Somerset Squall

27W has strengthened quite quickly, and is bow a 65kt typhoon according to JTWC. The system has been named In-fa by JMA. The typhoon has a small central dense overcast from which an eye has emerged. Further intensification is expected over the next few days as shear remains low and waters warm.

After a lull of 3 weeks, the Western Pacific has h generated a new tropical depression way out in the southeast of the basin, southeast of Pohnpei. Winds are 35kts according to JTWC. A general northwest track towards Guam is forecast as ridging to the north remains in control of 27W. Shear is relatively low and waters warm along track, so at least steady intensification is expected over the next 5 days.

Indeed, with winds of 65kts, which is a minimal hurricane. The hurricane is now racing northeastwards and is well on it's way to becoming extratropical.

Megh made landfall last night and is rapidly dissipating over the mountains of Yemen. Fascinating storm this one and Chapala!

Kate has strengthened more than predicted as it pulls away from the Bahamas. Winds are up to 60kts. Kate has a small but solid central dense overcast. Kate is expected to become a 70kt cat 1 hurricane before extratropical transition occurs.

A dull and increasingly breezy day. Very mild. Temperature: 14.4°c Humidity: 82% Pressure: 1021mb Wind: 11mph, gusting 24mph, from the south-southwest

Yup, we have Tropical Storm Kate, with winds of 40kts. Kate is a tiny tropical storm with a small central dense overcast. As Kate moves through the Bahamas, further intensification is expected as shear is expected to be low and waters warm. Kate is expected to peak at 55kts before merging with a large extratropical low to the north as Kate recurves to the northeast.

Megh has cleared Socotra Island and is now moving through the Gulf Of Aden towards mainland Yemen. Weakening has occured due to dry air advecting into the cyclone from the Arabian Peninsula. Winds are down to 75kts. Landfall at or near hurricane strength in southwest Yemen is still expected.

Rapid strengthening has occured overnight, and winds are at 110kts, cat 3 on the SS scale. The cyclone is making landfall on Socotra Island at this intensity. Slow weakening is forecast from now, but Megh is still forecast to make landfall on mainland Yemen as a hurricane strength system, which is amazing when you think that Chapala was the first on record to do so, and Megh is set to to do so so soon after.

Likes at this time of year: Frost. Gales. Sunny, crisp days. Dislikes: mild, dull days. Drizzle.

Turned it on mid-October but have just switched it off again for the time being. With temperatures currently running at 3°c above average for November, it's easy to see why...

I'd hate to live in a country with little variation to the weather. I love the British seasons (though I wish the Winters were colder!). Although coming home from work in the dark can be a bit depressing, it makes you appreciate the longer Summer evenings more

After a wet and pretty wild start, the sun came out at about 2pm and this evening has been cooler and much fresher feeling. Now, mainly clear with light winds. Current Obs: Temperature: 11.0°C Humidity: 87% Pressure: 1024mb Wind: 7mph, from the SSW

Megh has continued to strengthen. The cyclone has a well defined eye now, embedded in the small central dense overcast. Winds are up to 90kts, a category 2 on the SS scale. Some more strengthening is expected in the next 12hrs before land interaction with Socotra and drier air weaken Megh.

Tiny Megh has strengthened to 60kts according to JTWC. Looks like we could now have a category 2 strength system impacting Socotra, and, if the current forecast verifies, another hurricane strength landfall on mainland Yemen.

Rain on and off and up to 16°c here too, balmy conditions. Feels much much milder than recently!

The system became Cyclonic Storm Megh yesterday and has since slowly strengthened to 45kts according to JTWC. Not much has changed forecast wise really, Megh is forecast to become a cat 1 hurricane strength system before impacting Socotra. The track still takes Megh over or very close to that island. After, Megh will likely move into the Gulf Of Aden and perhaps end up on the shores of Yemen once more.

Another tropical cyclone has formed in the Arabian Sea, near where Cyclone Chapala formed last week. 05A has winds of 35kts according to JTWC, and is characterised by strong convecive banding wrapping into a well defined circulation with shallow associated convection. Dry air is affecting 05A, but shear is low and waters are warm, so steady intensification is expected as the system moves west-southwest, steered by a strong ridge to the north. This will guide 05A on a similar path to Chapala, but a bit further south. If this track verifies, Socotra Island would receive a landfall from this system. Interesting that two systems will take this path into the Gulf Of Aden and the surrounding region so close together. Tropical cyclone activity in the Gulf Of Aden region is quite rare.

Death toll currently reported at 4, which is remarkable. Flooding and damage is vast. From the records side of things, Chapala is the first cyclone on record to make landfall at hurricane strength on Yemen.

Chapala has not weakened much as it approaches Yemen. Winds are still at 105kts a category 3 on the SS scale. The dangerous cyclone is passing just north of Socotra Island and is delivering some really nasty conditions which has already caused fatalities here as Su Campu's post describes. Yemen are in big trouble with this cyclone.

Chapala failed to make cat 5 as it weakened soon after I posted. Winds are still at 115kts however, a cat 4. Track forecasts have been constantly trending west, so landfall is expected in Yemen proper now rather than the Oman border. Further weakening will occur before landfall due to dry air entrainment.

JTWC have gone with a 130kt cat 4 intensity for now, but forecast Chapala to reach category 5 status soon. The tropical cyclones certainly have been crazy lately! I, again, did not expect such quick intensification.

Indeed, and if it does reach the 130kt peak forecast, it'll be a rare beast indeed for this part of the world. Rapid intensification has continued. Winds are now at 95kts, and Chapala is sporting a well defined eye.

Chapala has continued to intensify. Winds are now at 75kts acoording to JTWC. Futher intensification is expected as outflow is good, shear is low and waters very warm. As Chapala approaches the Arabian peninsula, it will weaken a bit as drier air is drawn into the circulation. However, landfall as a significant cyclone still appears likely.

IMD has named the storm Chapala. In the latest advisory, JTWC have increased the winds to 55kts, indicating that rapid intensification has occured. An eye appears to be forming in the central dense overcast, meaning the rapid strengthening episode is probably not done yet.