Ian Brown

Thanks Gav - trust them to run with that rather than the METO's 'less sexy' update.

I think something you will find as you get used to viewing the NWP is that changes from strongly zonal patterns just don't suddenly pop up n 6/7 days time in the way that they can in other scenarios. When a change comes you will see the models start to play around with how the pattern breaks post T200. At the moment, there are no such signs and the METO support that.

Yes as I said earlier, November, certainly the first two thirds, is 'in the bag' for the Atlantic and that will see double to mid-teen figures and little in the way of frost due to the mobility of the pattern and the W/SW airmass. I was running thru some archives the other day and I hope for the sake of the forum and Carinthians skiing resort that we don't see another 88/89 or 89/90. Absolute zonality.

No SI, Im in touch with a couple of highly respected guys who were on the now defunct Eastern US forum. One is particularly bullish about a flat Northern Hemispheric pattern.

Yes but it is as far as they will go at this stage. As some of the US guys are saying, teleconnections do favour a +ve NAO. And although you can't sum up 62 days weather with one chart, we know that that means topplers at best.

I think it is quite a strong call by the METO given some of the fence sitting we have seen in the past. This won't be making the front page of the Mail or Express tomorrow !

They are not always right with these and they can change, but for the moment they are not seeing anything that indicates a change from the zonal barrage.

With the zonality we have established, you can be reasonably confident of the next 10 days. Not the day to day set-up by days 8 or 9 but of the general broad pattern - and the METO have indicated that the current pattern is in place till the end of November as per their 16-30 dayer issued today.

Thanks SS, yes that is certainly a coming off the fence (for the METO) for what will be the first two thirds of winter. The mild November is of course a no brainer given the well established uber zonal pattern – but clearly they see this pattern continuing broadly for December and January. I believe the May SST profile indicated –NAO conditions being more prevalent for the winter but obviously the MET are happy with the long range models as they see them now. December is usually zonal anyway and we could see a well established PV over Greenland by the end of November.

Thanks C, such a pattern could of course be indicative of mid-latitude HP around the UK with low pressure over Europe. That would fit with the QBO profile, and the concern for cold fans in the UK is that HLB may not be achievable this winter.other than perhaps occasional ridging Northward.

Lol, you may not even see that this winter !

The m/era as defined began in the late 80s, and many Autumn winter periods at various stages since then have been frost free. Zonality began for now on the 15th October, and could easily last for 5/6 weeks, so what is being experienced is normal when compared to past 25 year averages.

To achieve those sorts of maxes you are going to need no Atlantic influence and we know that's not likely to happen, especially in Ireland.

Well we are certainly in a period of uber zonality, with the classic zonal bowl in place. Fortunately its only October 25 but it is hard to see a way out of this for at least 3 weeks.

The banks were largely to blame - it's a myth put out by the paranoid press about over spending. I would switch to UKIP if I were you.

If he was still PM, he wouldn't have come off the fence !

Thanks Lorenzo, no need to rake over the whole thing again but I support the points made by SM at the time.

The shortwave didn't scupper the cold. The long wave pattern that was susceptible to the formation of said shortwave scuppered the cold. The cold was never coming at that particular juncture- I said that in the model thread at the time and got a lot of grief for it. Then what happened? The modelling flipped. There is a whole world of difference between a long range model painting a broad brushstroke of the expected general LW pattern and a short-midterm model trying to fathom the intricate synoptic pattern on a regional basis. How can we prove that that was the case ? The shortwave formed in exactly the spot that would scupper the High from making the linkage. How can we say that it was related to the Pacific jet ?

# Bottom line is that nobody knows. Last year a shortwave scuppered a significant cold spell progged by the models in the semi-reliable range mid-Dec and the month ended up running out mild. If you can find a model that could predict that sort of detail at this range then good luck. Very much so, a scupperer that threw everyone off course - including GP, the METO and the Daily Mail. My feeling is that HLB will be hard to achieve with the QBO phase, but I don't think that there will be a great deal of barreling zonality either. Although partly responsive to other factors, I feel that pressure over Europe is a key factor. Without persistent low anomalies in Jan/Feb of this year, the jet would have ridden through the weak blocking that we had rather than deflecting.

Yes a great chart for you there Gav with copious rainfall, certainly if we get to that sort of position then its another 2-3 weeks of that from then on at least.

You must be very young or have a poor memory - I very much doubt that to be the case.

You should see anything before December as a bonus and remember that Dec itself is usually the wettest and most zonal month.

Yes, we might as well have the zonality now, certainly all the ingredients are in place for a prolonged spell.

Thanks for that Ed, I would just advise members not to get too obsessed the Strat or see it as a refuge to come to for future hope when we see that barrelling zonality setup. There have been many instances of the Greenland PV refusing to yield to supposed tropospheric developments and the colder spells of last winter and spring were not necessarily what 'should' have happened, though of course we are talking about positioning of blocking and how that impacts on small mid latitude islands .

Yes I much prefer snow events and 'action' rather than prolonged cold, and for us in Central areas the best events are from battleground scenarios rather than prolonged northern blocking which is likely to see snow events for the far north, far south nAnd coastal areas.