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Ian Brown

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Everything posted by Ian Brown

  1. Ian Brown
    Yes it's a shame that the phrase can't be typed, as the originator I would hope that this will be relaxed over time particularly as I accept that we are now post mdrn
  2. Ian Brown
    Yes and would certainly tie in with the low pressure at Northern latitudes eventually winning the day. 06z continues on the same theme.
  3. Ian Brown
    Agreed Gav this is absolutely crazy and hopefully people will realise this week when snow fails to materialise that the newspaper and its sensationalism deserves zero credibility.
  4. Ian Brown
    Thanks Ian that fits in with a set-up of the High gradually declining E/SE.
  5. Ian Brown
    Yes the 'northerly' now looks completely different to what looked on the cards a few days ago - and with norherlies you normally have a greater leeway than with easterlies, where your timeframes for accuracy are T72, maximum T96. I disagree Phil and the trend is there in the NWP for the erosion to come from the North from day 12 onwards, but of course that is a long way off.
  6. Ian Brown
    Yes, even in the middle of the winter the outcome would be the same from his sort of feature, principally your chances of seeing snow on low ground from it at the beginning and end of the event as the bulk of the PPN is contained within the warmer segment of the feature. I think what we are seeing is a trend for lower heights at Northern latitudes in FI as the models reflect the Strat cooling. Time for changes of course but our mid-latitude High looks like coming under pressure from the jet.
  7. Ian Brown
    Really ? I have a friend near you who will tell me what actually happens.
  8. Ian Brown
    I didn't say that Shaun, it was a comment in the Strat thread to contradict some of the NWP.
  9. Ian Brown
    ECM closer to the GFS than the UKMO at T120, it does though look like the Atlantic energy will go under so T144 could be a move towards the UKMO position at that timeframe. Lots of uncertainty.
  10. Ian Brown
    I'd rather have anything other than the zonality of the last month.
  11. Ian Brown
    It's difficult to say, if it was coming down from the NW in a polar flow then areas on the Eastern and Northern side would probably see all snow but it isn't clear how it is going to develop. Certainly at the moment the METO see it as rain for low levels in the North and the Midlands.
  12. Ian Brown
    No, assuming it develops like that, it will contain a warm sector, even in the middle of winter, so that even if you have cold enough air in place ahead the bulk of what comes from it would be rain, certainly at low level. Then if colder air is chasing on behind you can get back edge snow on the Northern side.
  13. Ian Brown
    I feel that the UKMO at T144 is not a chart to put great faith in, we saw the other night how it backtracked in the morning from a certain position.
  14. Ian Brown
    It can't happen from that position.
  15. Ian Brown
    The jet is going to go over the top but low heights over S Europe mean that mid-latitude HP is likely for some time.
  16. Ian Brown
    I don't think you will see temps as low as that, winds are too West of North. And any snow will be of the wet variety.
  17. Ian Brown
    The sea is a considerably modifier at this time of year, and I would think that you would need to be on high ground Tuesday/wednesday to see settling snow, with some wet snow possible at lower levels in the North.
  18. Ian Brown
    I don't dispute that John, but people make provisions when forecasts like that are given out, and although not over-hyped like something you would see in the Express, we know now that it is erroneous.
  19. Ian Brown
    Shaun, Tuesday-Thursday is now well in the range of the models and the output now contradicts what the TV forecasts are saying. As for the Strat thread, I do feel too much importance is placed on it in some circles, but the output in recent days did go strongly against what has been the theme over there in recent weeks; a 'normal' cooling that should lead to a zonal December.
  20. Ian Brown
    Well day 10 is a long way off but the PV is becoming well organised to the NW by then and we know what would be coming.
  21. Ian Brown
    We certainly had a couple of let downs last November even before the December debacle.
  22. Ian Brown
    It only merits that comment if you are going to pull the LP down from N Scandi, which you are not because the jet will just link up with the Low heights over Europe, holding the cold air to the NE.
  23. Ian Brown
    Only the low heights over Italy are preventing a Bartlett style sinker, perhaps remaining settled to day 9 before it does sink.
  24. Ian Brown
    CC, the charts are a huge downgrade. Of course there are worst charts than the T144, but how do you get back to HLB from there ? It's a chart with no optimism.
  25. Ian Brown
    Yes, and the jet had ridden well over the top, this isn't going to be pretty going on - except for you Gav !
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