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Ian Brown

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Everything posted by Ian Brown

  1. Ian Brown
    Why ? How can the energy go South from that position ? Mid-latitude High - at best, possibly even worse by T168. These charts are not to be relied upon, many times over the last year the NWP has overtaken the trends being projected by the anomaly charts.
  2. Ian Brown
    Yes, a very quick collapse in even the Northerly and I think we are just looking at HP ridging in.
  3. Ian Brown
    Well northerly now virtually gone on the ECM as per the GFS.
  4. Ian Brown
    I think a T168 would see HP on top of us.
  5. Ian Brown
    Even that now looks unlikely, quite a dramatic downgrading of the northerly.
  6. Ian Brown
    Not on this GFS run, the PPN would be rain for most then only a brief window of colder uppers before less cold air moves back in.
  7. Ian Brown
    Are you feeling alright HD ? Seriously yes LP over Southern Europe will prevent a return to conventional zonality. It was hard to see where the METO were coming from a week or more ago with their call for below average temps but at times unsettled conditions especially for the Southern half but that looks where we headed post the Northerly.
  8. Ian Brown
    GFS and UKMO are quite similar at T144 with placement of the High not as far as NW as on some of last nights output, hence any easterly is more short lived. ECM is very messy, looking like it is going to go one way then pulling something out of the fire later on. As they say, more runs needed.
  9. Ian Brown
    I'm sure people around Chester/Liverpool/W Cumbria wouldn't say that.
  10. Ian Brown
    Yes it was difficult to see this coming, particularly as the Strat thread indicated a return to zonality. Of course a long way to go yet and to newer members I would say that if zonality is shown at T168 it is a virtual given, if easterlies are shown then it is well beyond the reliable timeframe.
  11. Ian Brown
    Breasts out or breasts up Steve ? If the easterly comes off the formation is rather than different than 2010, and rather than a flood of cold uppers from the E/NE, it's a set-up that just sends the air from the East our way, which isn't that cold and would soon be running on empty after an initial burst. That could change a little bit nearer the time, but the reality of it, cold and raw but perhaps not cold enough should be realised rather than the eye candy of the Meteociel charts.
  12. Ian Brown
    He has gone to the gym. No point in looking further than T168 other than just for fun because the key factors are T120-T144 and just throwing a little bit more energy further North would have made day 7 look very different.
  13. Ian Brown
    It's knife edge at T144 you have to say, could go either way at T168.
  14. Ian Brown
    Yes, ECM looks like sending enough energy Northwards to be more like the UKMO come T144.
  15. Ian Brown
    We shouldn't get carried away with the GFS. The northerly blast is coming and the UKMO shows the far more likely end game for it with a toppling of some sort arriving from the West at T144 - expect the ECM to be much more like this than the GFS.
  16. Ian Brown
    Whoa ! This is the GFS and moreover the GFS 06Z that we are talking about. Interesting to see if something can be sustained though as my interpretation of the Strat boys thread is that we should be looking at zonality returning.
  17. Ian Brown
    ECM is a more realistic outcome following the northerly, the interesting thing is that low heights are maintained over Europe throughout the run. The GFS has done one of its sudden lurches that moves not only towards the other models but past them and must be treated with great caution.
  18. Ian Brown
    Yes, looks pretty grim for us tomorrow especially in the morning.
  19. Ian Brown
    Northelies don't last long, there will be some sort of toppling and cutting off of the cold uppers. It's what happens afterwards and I would still be sceptical about a true Greenland High coming into fruition. Anybody who watched the GFS last winter will know of it's obsession with pushing the jet into Scandinavia with pressure rising to the South.
  20. Ian Brown
    Yes, the Irish Sea can turn things the wrong side of marginal as late as early December from such set-ups.
  21. Ian Brown
    The High has toppled over the UK by T240 but look at the very low heights over Europe - it would either remain at mid-latitude or set up another cold shot.
  22. Ian Brown
    I'm not and I think they are far too simplistic. If we are in for a Dec 2010 then fair enough, but I think generally they reinforce the Express type extremist view of the weather.
  23. Ian Brown
    Thanks Matt, the same model did perform poorly this time last year though, continually modelling +ve anomalies over Greenland and Iceland that never materialised.
  24. Ian Brown
    That's knackered it then.
  25. Ian Brown
    Yes, low heights over Europe essentially prevents a return to mild, but with low heights at Northern latitude we are not going to get HLB either. Garbagebags - it's going to be a long winter for you if you agonise over each run like this - especially the GFS 06z.
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