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Ian Brown

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Everything posted by Ian Brown

  1. Ian Brown
  2. Ian Brown
    It's ludicrous, disregard.
  3. Ian Brown
    That's summary is too simplistic Steve, yes the GFS is often keen to barrel the jet thru at Northern latitudes but when blocking is involved they can all struggle at times - don't forget the ECM has shown easterlies at T120 that haven't come off.
  4. Ian Brown
    Yep, better uppers likely this time if it verifies of course. Have I seen too many topplers in my time ? Surprised a few knowledgeable sorts in the MO thread can't read the charts.
  5. Ian Brown
    Yes absolutely this is still some time away, but nothing to suggest that this is anymore than a 36-42 hour event.
  6. Ian Brown
    Tom, I've seen scores of these and the times that has happened can be counted on one hand.
  7. Ian Brown
    No, the less cold air returns from the NW so you see a weak system coming SE and the cold air is mixed out so any snowfall is usually very temporary and confined to higher parts, often there is no PPN left on these systems by the time they reach the SE.
  8. Ian Brown
    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013112912/gfs-0-192.png?12 And there we have it.
  9. Ian Brown
    It won't slide SE, the Azores High will end up over us. Yes cold air on the UKMO, but you can already see the end game. No, the cold is cut off from the NW. Yes there is a window for snow showers for the usual spots in this set-up but not frontal snow.
  10. Ian Brown
    Still a long way off and not going to last long but this is one for us : http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013112912/gfs-0-180.png?12
  11. Ian Brown
    The Azores low may help to prolong it a little that is if it even pans out like this, but the Low coming off the Seaboard is going to end the flow.
  12. Ian Brown
    We need to see that slow down and linkage of heights between the Atlantic and SW of Greenland.
  13. Ian Brown
    The trigger low to the NW is not as deep on this run, but it may not make too much difference.
  14. Ian Brown
    It looks very similar to the 06z thus far.
  15. Ian Brown
    We will have to see Frosty, remember the 12z can be quite progressive in what it shows. The METO are still talking about unsettled in the far North and NW in their outlook which suggests the Northern arm still barreling across to Scandi.
  16. Ian Brown
    We shall Steve but the UKMO at T144 would follow the GFS route onward because the shortwave would cut off the link of heights South of Greenland. If the ECM verifies then yes some snow showers for Scotland and especially NE Scotland later at T192 but then it is all shunted East fairly quickly.
  17. Ian Brown
    Yes it shows a short cold plunge before HP moves back in, the NH profile is poor going forward though on both the ECM and GFS.
  18. Ian Brown
    T192 is quite interesting on the ECM because it appears to be sending the Atlantic energy under the block. The problem we have on the GFS and (would appear to have also on the UKMO at T144) is the Eastward ejection of the LP off the Seaboard, it's preventing linkage between the Atlantic High and heights over Greenland and thats crucial.
  19. Ian Brown
    Yes but it fails then we have what is shown at T240 and a really poor position going forward, snow for Greece/Turkey etc.. before the HP sinks into Europe.
  20. Ian Brown
    Initially yes but the jet is going over the top so all we can do is have another Rex block.
  21. Ian Brown
    There soon will be - the race was lost and its game over at T192 : http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013112812/ECM1-192.GIF
  22. Ian Brown
    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013112812/ECM1-168.GIF?28-0 Crunch time at T168, the Atlantic High has to cut off that cyclogenesis coming off the Seaboard, it's a race to the top.
  23. Ian Brown
    The GFS is always one extreme to the other and ultimately this is still beyond day 7 (T168) on the models so let's see what subsequent runs bring.
  24. Ian Brown
    A very different GFS reflective of some of the ensemble members, still a long way to go yet as this is still 8 days away.
  25. Ian Brown
    CC, whether there is a northerly or not the METO are detailing the likely evolution thereafter; a toppling with the Atlantic rolling in over the top. Depending on how far the High sinks, then as we know we can see very mild SWerlies from this set-up.
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