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Ian Brown

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Everything posted by Ian Brown

  1. Ian Brown
    ECM and GFS give us a chance but any more Eastward correction and it won't be happening. Beyond that it looks like the long game of chasing an easterly or the push me/pull me synoptics of LP to the NW and HP to the NE.
  2. Ian Brown
    Very low heights to the NW, hopefully the High can hang on to prevent zonality.
  3. Ian Brown
    Its better than the UKMO at the same time frame but as for an easterly, it's playing the long game for that. Thankfully its December 1 !
  4. Ian Brown
    Not an easterly, it's a battleground scenario.
  5. Ian Brown
    Not for the UK, the core of heights is going SSW.
  6. Ian Brown
    Well that looks unlikely now given the UKMO and the GFS has zero margin for error with what it shows.
  7. Ian Brown
    Yes, absolutely zero margin for error in terms of Eastward correction.
  8. Ian Brown
    The first half was strongly zonal and even the METO were anticipating it being very mild and wet in their update at the beginning of the month.
  9. Ian Brown
    I would think it unlikely Gord unless the cold air gets ahead of the PPN.
  10. Ian Brown
    I accept that there has been a shift this morning to blocking hints out East, but without relaxing or retreating of those deep blues and purples to the NW, then you can't get such a High to influence the UK, unless the Atlantic energy then starts to go South.
  11. Ian Brown
    The PPN will be rain HD on the frontal boundary, then the snow showers will start to pack into Scotland.
  12. Ian Brown
    There isn't time for anything to get going shower wise on the Western side of the UK apart from NW Scotland and maybe N Ireland for a few hours.
  13. Ian Brown
    Well there is at least better agreement on the end of the week as you would expect as it moves to 4/5 day timeframe, a short northerly blast with snow showers for Scotland and the NE. Beyond that it isn't a typical toppler but talk of a Scandi High, or at least a Scandi High that can influence the UK is very fanciful with so much energy in the Northern arm.
  14. Ian Brown
    There is zero margin for error even on the ECM, I would think that the most likely outcome is a glancing blow northerly where there isn't time for Showers to get going over the NW before the flow is cut off from the West.
  15. Ian Brown
    Yes I think we are kidding ourselves if we don't see this as much the most likely option, the only saviour could be if the High is far enough North to give settled conditions over much of the country with the jet raging to the North. Everything points to those deep purples and a barreling jet from day 9 onwards.
  16. Ian Brown
    This basically sums it up, in other words a compromise is of no use, to get a decent northerly then we need the ECM to be correct and there is zero margin for error in that output.
  17. Ian Brown
    ECM is much better thus far but it will stand alone tonight WRT northerly.
  18. Ian Brown
    The GFS has shown 3 different solutions today alone so we can't just say it is right if there is no northerly. But on balance I think we will see a climbdown on the ECM in about 80 minutes time to a glancing blow northerly and a strong Northern arm of the jet going forward.
  19. Ian Brown
    Sorry CC, you and SM might be coming out with the stuff that people want to hear but it is simply not true. The jet is going over the top and the High is a sinker. I hope the ECM shows exactly the same at T144 and then we will see what its T168 goes onto show shall we ?
  20. Ian Brown
    I wish we could see a T168 UKMO chart but SM is 100% wrong.
  21. Ian Brown
    Steve, you need to admit a wrong call here. http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013113012/UN144-21.GIF?30-17 The LP to the North of the High is going E/NE. The High is going to sink to Biscay and then it is going to lead to milder weather.
  22. Ian Brown
    Whatever happens next weekend, the longer term prospects for cold are looking as poor as they can be with continuous charts like this at this sort of timeframe : http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png
  23. Ian Brown
    No. LP is already going over the top of the High and it's a toppler. Both GFS and UKMO are effectively showing the same outcome.
  24. Ian Brown
    The ECM shows the classic Northerly episode, let's hope it can verify.
  25. Ian Brown
    I want to reserve judgment on the possible cold blast until we have seen more runs, but I would agree with Shed with regard to the pattern after. All the models show a deepening of heights to the NW and I would be surprised if we avoid full blown zonality as we head towards mid-Dec.
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