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Ian Brown

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  1. Ian Brown
    The latest METO update reflects what Ian F is saying though I think the Atlantic will make incursions before the METO indicate, the recipe is certainly for an intense HP to the South and very low heights to the NW, meaning a progressively long draw SWerley is likely for the second half of the month.
  2. Ian Brown
    The GEM is a very poor performer in winter, I've said when it has been showing zonality against the others and I will say it again now that it is showing easterlies. We can discount it. The GFS is very anti-cyclonic throughout but I feel it is wrong with the height extension Westward at around day 9 and the ECM is more likely with the gradual Atlantic incursion leading to more conventional zonality from around Dec 16.
  3. Ian Brown
    I don't think that is the case BA, this spell of rather bening weather will take us to at least Dec 15 then with the HIgh finally likely to decline E/SE the returning zonality would take care of at least another 2 weeks.
  4. Ian Brown
    I think with the intensity of the PV we should soon start seeing more conventional zonal charts in the longer range NWP with the High sinking over Europe. Potentially a wet and windy Xmas period.
  5. Ian Brown
    Yes with the deep PV I would expect the latter solution is where we headed.
  6. Ian Brown
    No, the jet is going over the top and whilst there is even energy going to the Azores to 'level' the jet angle a little, you would just see the HP build over the UK. Ridging isn't going to come out of the Arctic.
  7. Ian Brown
    It was being widely discussed on the forum at the time that HLB in winter may never occur again, this was a serious topic on weather forums. ECM ensembles strongly back the OP.
  8. Ian Brown
    What ended up happening, over 2 weeks later was estimated to be a 1 in 250 year event. I could show similar charts from the last 26 years, and well, what followed became a nearly every year event for 22 years.
  9. Ian Brown
    Its over Ian, with next week looking progressively milder with a deep PV to the NW.
  10. Ian Brown
    Why ? The GFS had already started the trend and supported by its ensembles of more energy going into the Northern arm.
  11. Ian Brown
    Yes, the sort of pattern that can last for six weeks or longer. Quite a big shift tonight in the output as the NWP picks up on the increased strength going into the Northern arm. I think RJS picked up on this a couple of days ago.
  12. Ian Brown
    Some great charts tonight for Gav and Gaz. Quite an intense PV developing over Greenland with the jet being driven to Western Russia, potentially exceptionally mild and bringing back those charts from the late 80s winters.
  13. Ian Brown
    ECM also sending less energy Southwards so should look similar to the GFS by days 8-10.
  14. Ian Brown
    Always good to have the view from Ian F, but a Scandinavian block is most unlikely from the synoptic set-up we find ourselves next week even if the GFS 12z is wrong. The High may migrate Northward but that can only be temporary with the jet over the top.
  15. Ian Brown
    A progressive 12z with less energy going South, could be a very mild and wet FI.
  16. Ian Brown
    Yes for the UK to benefit you have to height extension towards Greenland at a high enough latitude. Nothing really suggests that is going to happen. Still, on the positive side this sort of battle doesn't usually start this early and given a few notable extensions, conventional zonality is the general norm at this time of year.
  17. Ian Brown
    I'm still waiting for the Greenland blocking it showed for over a month about this time last year... A anti-cyclonic outlook this morning and although we see energy taken South into the Azores by the NWP, going forward this is not a set-up that will lend itself to high enough latitude blocking to bring a 'proper' easterly to the UK. The cold uppers will remain for E and SE Europe until there is another pattern change.
  18. Ian Brown
    Yes it's a poor profile going forward, all you can say is that low heights in Southern climes may prop up the High for a time but there is certainly plenty of energy in that Northern arm.
  19. Ian Brown
    There is very little possibility CS, the Northerly is a 'clipper' with pressure too high in Western areas and with the flow cut off too soon to get the Cheshire gap band going.
  20. Ian Brown
    Thanks for that C, the other problem in terms of an easterly for the UK from this route is that it wouldn't be a 'beast' just a chilly flow, as the easterly wouldn't have formed on the Northern side of the jet.
  21. Ian Brown
    Yes I certainly think that is likely to be the case, will be interesting to see the METO update later today and see if they mention very mild conditions towards the end of the 6-15 dayer. Chasing easterlies is a very long game from a starting point of HP over France.
  22. Ian Brown
    Yes some December records could be broken certainly in Ireland if this comes off, also potentially quite wet out West too.
  23. Ian Brown
    I think the trend is to push the 'blast' East and I would be surprised now if any of us see anything. Disappointing and the only saving grace is that conventional zonality MAY be avoided for the next 10 days.
  24. Ian Brown
    Yes essentially fits in with what Ian F said earlier of an essentially anti-cyclonic pattern with the Atlantic effecting the far NW at times, whether we can avoid some very mild weather on the whole will be dependent on the HP centre not slipping South. Yes, like some of the early 00s winters with potentially a lot of snow for Greece and Turkey.
  25. Ian Brown
    Day 9 and it's one for Greece/Turkey.
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