Jason74

Think GP has stated it (effects of the SSW) will begin end of the month/going into early Feb

Yes, best wait for the 12z to (hopefully) get a clearer picture of what may happen re. friday and the weekend.

Well, the 12z is what I am waiting for before drawing any conclusions about what the next few days are going to hold for the SW.

Really wouldn't get too despondent. We really won't know for certain until tomorrow what is going to happen on Monday's/Tuesday's event. Even if that doesn't produce the goods the odds are on for an even colder spell later in the month and going into February. Still plenty of time this winter for us all to get some snowfall. Patience (and a bit of faith) is the key

Believe the GFS is showing rain for our neck of the woods (Dorset). Got to hope for another shift west.

Agreed but never count one's chickens!. A few more runs and then it's time to feel more comfortable.

18z looking good (so far). Dare not look at the charts tomorrow morning in case they've done a flip back!.

Latest post by Nick S on the model thread clearly states a low confidence in the models (see below): I think comments by NOAA on the Michigan state forecast sum things up perfectly! OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM AS MODEL DISCREPANCIES ARE QUITE APPARENT ESPECIALLY AT DEEPER RANGES INTO THE FORECAST. THIS WINTER HAS SEEMED TO FEATURE MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN INCONSISTENCIES IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND THIS LONG TERM PERIOD AND BEYOND SEEMS NO DIFFERENT. Earlier regarding the important shortwave track: AFTER SATURDAY CONFIDENCE REALLY DIPS GIVEN MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH IT SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SIMILAR SETUP OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HAVE 30-50 POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE SUNDAY SYSTEM AND ONLY 20 POPS IN FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY SYSTEM GIVEN THE MODEL DISPARITIES.

Got my Prozac and six pack of Stella ready for the pub run

Still plenty of time for it to go belly up. More runs needed before I get even a wee bit excited.

Absolutely. More runs needed, I feel.

Chances are always going to be slim here on the south coast. Added factor of the purbecks and the IOW don't help either!.