Jason74
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Posts posted by Jason74
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Yes, best wait for the 12z to (hopefully) get a clearer picture of what may happen re. friday and the weekend.
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Well, the 12z is what I am waiting for before drawing any conclusions about what the next few days are going to hold for the SW.
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Really wouldn't get too despondent. We really won't know for certain until tomorrow what is going to happen on Monday's/Tuesday's event.
Even if that doesn't produce the goods the odds are on for an even colder spell later in the month and going into February. Still plenty of time this winter for us all to get some snowfall. Patience (and a bit of faith) is the key
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I'm getting so excited! I will up looking out of the window all Monday! And then hopefully the sledge will come out!
Believe the GFS is showing rain for our neck of the woods (Dorset).
Got to hope for another shift west.
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You might say this might only one run but no this is the start of a HUGE correction, a well done to ECM and also GEM which has done very well it has to be said
Agreed but never count one's chickens!.
A few more runs and then it's time to feel more comfortable.
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18z looking good (so far).
Dare not look at the charts tomorrow morning in case they've done a flip back!.
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Latest post by Nick S on the model thread clearly states a low confidence in the models (see below):
I think comments by NOAA on the Michigan state forecast sum things up perfectly!
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM AS MODEL
DISCREPANCIES ARE QUITE APPARENT ESPECIALLY AT DEEPER RANGES INTO
THE FORECAST. THIS WINTER HAS SEEMED TO FEATURE MODEL RUN TO MODEL
RUN INCONSISTENCIES IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND THIS LONG TERM
PERIOD AND BEYOND SEEMS NO DIFFERENT.
Earlier regarding the important shortwave track:
AFTER SATURDAY CONFIDENCE REALLY DIPS GIVEN MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS. THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH IT
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SIMILAR SETUP OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HAVE 30-50 POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE SUNDAY SYSTEM AND
ONLY 20 POPS IN FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY SYSTEM GIVEN THE MODEL
DISPARITIES.
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Got my Prozac and six pack of Stella ready for the pub run
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Just got in from work, 12c outside, very misty and drizzly......but the MOD thread is very exciting......surely we'll get some decent wintry weather from this weekend onwards!!
Can this go belly up? God I hope not!
Still plenty of time for it to go belly up.
More runs needed before I get even a wee bit excited.
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Splendid snowy runs from the 12z suite, however I would urge a note of caution based on the GFS ensembles.
Cold snap ON
Cold spell still to bag.
IMBY - :-)
Absolutely.
More runs needed, I feel.
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Suprise suprise, no snow shown for the south..........Again! Great looking charts for cold and there seems to be more upgrades then down. Also all models begining to fall in to line with each other.
Chances are always going to be slim here on the south coast. Added factor of the purbecks and the IOW don't help either!.
South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 14/01/13, 12z onwards
in Regional
Posted
Think GP has stated it (effects of the SSW) will begin end of the month/going into early Feb