Jason74
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Posts posted by Jason74
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Few flakes of snow around mid-morning. A nice surprise given none was forecast. Hope for some of the white stuff during the next few weeks. Fingers crossed.
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7 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:
T384 hrs sorry guys and gals best i can offer.
Im no expert. Mrs sorepaw says different ..ummm moving on
Tbh not sure where this January is going.
Maybe this winter is going to be less cold than previous winters.
24 hrs ago we had 4 runs of a colder outlook at T240 hrs..
There's been lots of heated posts lately even by some mods .
Nope. Same. Not sure where this January is going but becoming less hopeful by the day of any significant cold.
Going into self-imposed model watching exile for a few days and then see where we are. Need to keep one's sanity as when all is said and done. It is only the weather!
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As always, patience is the key. Pay attention to what posters such as GP, Chio, and Nick are saying. Repeatedly.
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8 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:
Mate to be honest I think they are just as clueless as all of us. The SSW has started give it another week to show its hand and then we might get a better picture because currently the models have no continuity just like the experts on Twitter and the Met and so forth. No one truly knows what will happen imo.
And this, in a nutshell. Sums things up perfectly re. the current model output.
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34 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
It can take 1 or 2 weeks following a SSW for it to take effect lower down, so we are talking about 1st or second week of January we should see some impact at our latitude (not necessarily the UK ), so let’s not get too worried about FI charts - they are rubbish at the best of times so trying to forecast the fallout of SSW is impossible at this range. What we can expect to see is a typical borefest of UK winter charts, then Around XMAS a possible flip to something special hopefully. As long as this SSW happens, the UK has a good chance of “big freeze”, the METO are forecasting and monitoring it so let’s stay with that.
Also, I think GLOSEA was seeing a big warming (SSW) in Jan a few weeks back, is this still the case I wonder - and is this warming next week just a precursor- if so 2 back to back SSWs could have some serious potential.
The effects in the UK might be around the 10th January according to some respected members on here.
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26 minutes ago, Purga said:
Indeed, prior to the arrival of 'The Beast' at the end of last winter the NWP was pretty uninspiring for quite some time but the longer term signal was strongly cold.
This is the case now, so keep smiling through the drizzle this week !
Patience is the key.
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44 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
I feel the need for a review post. A bit like when I was at university, the best nights out were never complete until the post-mortem the next morning!
I have loved this winter. Context is no snow of any significance here since Jan 2013. Here we've had three massive events:
1. 10th December - best snowfall in Wantage for 7 years, 10-15 cm, and 10 miles south (yes the M4!) just rain. Maybe not the best thread to mention this one!
2. Beast #1 - as a model addict, the build up to this was just epic - I was a very occasional poster on Netweather until this. Bone-chilling cold, early snow prone to sublimation, then the Emma storm, and drifting powder snow.
3. Beast #2 - don't like the term mini-beast - this was proper severe weather even if it was a shorter spell. 8-10cm snow here, more than Beast #1, lasted longer too.What did we learn from the models:
ICON not to be discounted, it's a decent model and showed really good consistency at times.
HIRLAM seems the most reliable of the short term models at resolving precipitation. Including the convective element.
All the models, coupled with knowledge of the science re the SSW meant the Feb and March events were predicable from long range - just amazing.Thanks to all for the great posts, I've loved reading them, will be back at the hint of a plume, heat wave, thunder set up, or next winter.
Best regards to all
Mike
PS:
Yep....will be back searching for heat waves and summer storms
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A Brucie Bonus this cold snap. Lovely covering here in Poole. Snow stopped and overcast now.
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My drunken elderly neighbour (Alan) has a messy and pitiful small pile of snow on his drive with a yellow patch on it (where I believe a cat must have wee wee'd on it).
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Lovely day here in Poole. Been a great week overall.
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13 minutes ago, snowysouth said:
Rapid thaw in Poole, it's almost all gone. Managed to have my fun last night. I'm content with that. The freezing rain was lethal. We had to crack through the layer of ice to get to the snow. Last night 2 of my grown up children and me (19 and 21) were outside like big kids throwing snow balls, stomping through the ice and snow having great fun. Yes it was a nightmare walking to and from work but it was lovely when I had a chance to mess about in it. If it stayed the powdery stuff that would be fine but I'm glad the ice has all but gone. Having said that, it's been a memorable spell.
This past week has been brilliant and memorable.
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5 hours ago, karlos1983 said:
Carlo Ancolotti please ?
Yep. Not a gooner (although my late Dad was) but feel they need an experienced, safe pair of hands to see them through the next couple of years.
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1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:
That was Arsene’s Nose I promise ?
To be honest, I think that snowman could make a better job of managing Arsenal right now. Interim manager until the end of the season.
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Rain in this part of Poole (Upper Parkstone) and the thaw has now begun.
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It's been a rollercoaster these past couple of weeks or so. One eye on the spring now.
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13 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:
More ppn heading in, what will it fall as ?
Page 3 models?
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15 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:
Snowing! Nice way to end this. It’s not much but it’s lifted my mood ?
just spent an hour clearing the garden and making snowman. Kids happy, I’m happy everybody is happy!
i have beer now also
Personally I'm chuffed to bits over what we've had. Snow and ice days. Well happy.
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Supposed to go and drive from Poole to Ringwood today to collect our special needs daughter from school (she is in residential there). Crazy thing is that the school are expecting us to do this. Funny how the health and safety policies fly out of the window when it suits these places.
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What a cracking day. Woke to a lovely overnight covering and some light snow still falling up until around 9am. Then the proper event started around midday with the PPN gradually gaining in intensity throughout the day. Feel happy now heading into the spring.
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Getting heavier now here in Poole.
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4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:
Look, this snow now is bonus snow if you have it! Light snow on and off all day across the region, then the main course later
So can you please stop the frankly wrong posts of non event, it’s if nothing else pessimistic, but actually dangerous if people look in here see a post and head out!
Exactly. This is the prawn cocktail starter before (hopefully) the main. Need a bit of lady luck down here on the coast to stay the right side of the temps.
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I let out a little girly giggle when I saw 2 cm's of snow on the ground. Such a rare thing for us south coasters.
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1 minute ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:
Worth taking a look at tonights ecm run bit of a stunner for prolonging the cold and further snow chances right out to 240hrs
Bloody hell....don't think I can take anymore of this.
Midlands Regional Discussion
in Regional
Posted
Feeling fairly confident (at this stage) that we'll see some cold and snow here in the West Midlands. Moved up here with the family in August last year from Poole in Dorset; and had two good snow events down there in March 2018. Really hope to see some decent snow here in the Black Country sometime during the next 2 to 3 weeks.