Jason74
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Posts posted by Jason74
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29 minutes ago, markw2680 said:
Tbh as nice as these ecm charts are it’s already a few days later than last nights gfs showed so until there’s more consistency and it actually counts down a bit I’d say it’s a rather large garden path incident I’m afraid. I don’t want to be doom monger but day 10 charts very rarely verify
You're not being a doom monger. Just being realistic and pragmatic.
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18 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:
Deary me what’s happened to this thread?
Usual suspects claiming they have called the correct forecasts months in advance - same tosh every season.
Should you lads not be working for the Met Office by now with all these correct calls you have made over the years?
Some folk on here are the weather equivalent of Derek Acorah (RIP) - must be lots of weather ghosts/spirits coming through Spring, Summer, Autumn and Winter...
Sam the Spirit Guide is the usual 'go to' source for long range forecasts.
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17 hours ago, Carl46Wrexham said:
Chuck December 2019 in the bin...where it belongs
Yep. Forget it. Only hope we all see some decent cold and snowfall. Eventually.
One hope I hang onto is getting two decent spells of snow right down on the South Coast (Poole, Dorset) back in early and then mid March 2018. So all is never lost even at that stage.
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1 hour ago, Dancerwithwings said:
All change, it’s all cold rain and mainly for the East of our region...thank god it clears by mid morning.
Ah well, at least we have at least another 3 months to try and see some snow:-) Must admint I'm not all that optimistic right now.
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8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
True. But, then the same can be said for hanging on the every word of respected posters who keep saying it's going to snow...come what may...?
Well, like I say, don't get too hung up either way.
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1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:
Oh so true damian! It's the same in summer too.... Summer will be over come mid June, if it starts bad! A very sensible post from weather trendings Jon hammond today.... Snow lovers relax, don't hang onto each and every model run... Try not to stress, in his opinion, the LRF will change alot over the coming weeks, so it's not worth getting stressed over what there current prognosis is. I for one will be in the fighting for winter to land camp all season.. No stress, no dramas..
What's that Rudyard Kipling 'If'....says to meet treat triumph and disaster just the same. Which brings me to this week's model viewing. Monday was pretty much widespread euphoria with some stating the UKMO would soon 'come onboard' alongside the GFS and ECM. The next day?....many were reaching for the Prozac.
Have learnt the hard way on here to take each model run with a pinch of salt and to not get too excited nor too despondent. Unless the models are all more or less in agreement 96 hours or so (even then it has gone tits up) then keep grounded.
Anyway, just simply can't get my head around why some are hanging on the word of one or two (respected) posters who haven't given a favourable outlook for cold. No one knows for certain how the weather is going to pan out and there's still around 13 weeks worth of winter left to go. Plenty of time for us all to hopefully see some cold, snow, ice, and frosts.
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2 hours ago, Mattwolves said:
Could be some interest again next weekend or just after if the 6zs are on the money... Let's just count this down in a nice and organised calm manner! It's bound to come of folk!
Cross model agreement... Gfs and gfsp identical at 180! Gfs6z the above post.
Edit again... They are both from gfsp... Model fatigue hitting hard now.
You are the Rocky Balboa of cold weather searching model watching and I claim my £5.
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9 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:
Yes indeed, there was some very cold weather during the 14th century, we had just gone past the medieval warm spell! I would imagine as it stands we would require one hell of an effort to have a repeat of those circumstances.
Fast forward nearly five hundred years and my (now late) parents had around 4 inches of snow on the morning of their wedding day. 5th April 1958. London.
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8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
Charts?
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3 hours ago, Mattwolves said:
I think there has been excitement over the gfs runs also impressive ensembles regarding cold enough uppers for snow! But like I said earlier the other models are having non of it. Not sure about the weather should be improving now idea, March is a funny month, it will literally throw every type of weather at us! If things are showing know signs of becoming settled and warmer by end of April, then perhaps its time to complain about it. I feel Confident there will be a lot of fine warm spells this coming spring and summer, so I'm just willing to ride this month out... Basically if we can't get a proper cold shot with snow, then bring on summer I say... And the sooner the bloody better!
The Battle of Towton (the bloodiest battle in British history) was fought in a heavy snow storm back on the 29th March 1461. So there's hope for us yet!
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1 hour ago, TEITS said:
I can call it a disaster. no lying snow and only witnessed 5 mins of falling snow. No Ice days and no days when frost has remained all day. For my location that is very unusual. Also I can think of many locations in the same boat as me.
Totally naff here. A few moderate snow showers but nothing to write home about. Garbage of a winter around the West Midlands.
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22 minutes ago, K9 said:
Well all the expectations/potential failed to deliver the goods this year...all the eye candy was 10+ days out every time ...but it made 'interesting' viewing and I've enjoyed all the posts and predictions this winter despite it being one of the most snowless ones in these parts that I can remember for a long time!.. (two very brief dustings) 2018/19..the winter that never was!..so it's time to get off the rollercoaster and save up for a ticket for next winters ride!.. take care folks..here's to a long hot summer eh?
Same. It's been interesting to watch and I admire those who have made their predictions. Unfortunately, it just doesn't look like producing the goods this year.
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1 hour ago, snowfish1 said:
I'm. Choking back the tears as I peruse the gfs output now
To the tune of 'Land of Hope and Glory'....
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Read a post on Facebook yesterday that the jet stream is below the equator and has been since the 23rd January 2019? Does anyone know whether this really is true and/or correct? And if so, what effect this would have upon the weather?
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43 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
In a parallel universe?
It'll be late December. Nope, early January. Or maybe late January. Or February. Sometime. Nah....actually make that March. What a yawn fest.
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7 minutes ago, snow freak said:
This winter now needs to take a hike. It has failed to deliver in so many ways so just bring on the summer now. Winter has had its chance and flunked it big time this year.
Yep. it can do one! or RIP...
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1 hour ago, Midlands Ice Age said:
BC..
Not so sure about that. Things can change in 2 or 3 days very quickly.
Lows are still forecast to move into S Europe over the next few days. Which is positive. The problem is the power of the jet which is due to set up from midweek onwards, coming straight over us.
Its the dam vey cold air coming out from the US.
I suspect there will be other chances in the next few weeks. We will see.
Blocking has set up, but not in the right place for us (yet)
MIA
From a personal point of view, a break from model watching is wise to refresh and then comeback and re-visit them later next week. To see what is happening.
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20 minutes ago, matt_in_dudley said:
Well the last few days have been a complete bust haven’t they? To be honest I haven’t paid that much attention on the weather the last few months. Last time I posted was May...ish? Dad passed away unexpectedly, had my car stolen, work, work, work...time just gets away for you. I think it was the 2nd week of January before I realised we’d not seen much in the way of wintry weather. I did look so good for us a couple of days ago, amazing how it can change so quickly really.
Condolences on the loss of your Dad.
Hope winter brings us one decent snowfall at least before the season finishes.
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4 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:
Perhaps only in your back garden!!!
Yes, perhaps.
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Ah...the winter of 2019 will go down in the annals of history as the one that seemed to promise so much but delivered so little. One to forget and cannot wait now for spring.
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21 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
So here we have it, Day 16: a goat-shaped Euroslug and The Lobe of St Bartholomew, scalpel in hand and peeling-off members' skin - one piece at a time!
OUCH!
A hunt the warmth thread is looking the form horse soon.
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8 minutes ago, Bald Eagle said:
Lovely photo.
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Snow grains here in Netherton, Black Country.
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Lived in Poole for 10 years up until August last year. Irony is that down on the south coast they have seen more snow this winter than up here! Lol.
As I said yesterday. Roll on spring. Done with all this for another year.
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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Moved from Poole to the West Mildands in August 2018. Expecting some snow and cold weather but during the 17 months since, Nil pois. Utter tosh.
This winter is a write off. Let's get through the rest of this current crap and focus on spring and summer. Maybe winter 2020/21 might bring something more favourable in the terms of cold weather.