Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
-
Posts
2,638 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
-
-
What an exciting start to the evening outputs that is if you're a coldie! its still an evolving pattern, I certainly hope that now the GFS has moved towards the ECM that it collects the baton and finishes the relay!
GFS 12Z has certainly moved in the right direction Nick.
Still not really seeing where any cold for the UK is going to come from though....
-
I think it more pragmatism-but believe me i want the op and control to be leading the way.Trouble is,thats my heart talking ....
-
1
-
-
The new update summary just posted by my UKMO colleagues at BBC Weather Centre precisely replicates what Ops Centre are currently considering as probable outcome:"Monday 20 January—Sunday 2 FebruaryStaying unsettled... at firstWhilst current indications point towards unsettled weather persisting through much of the rest of January, conditions are expected to be more typically unsettled for the winter season. Certainly early in this fortnight the pressure looks set to remain low to the southwest of Iceland.However, and this would be quite a change for this winter, there are some signals emerging for an increasing risk of a change to colder weather types towards the end of January. This would increase the potential for more settled conditions, leaving a lower risk of wet and windy spells than has recently been the case."
Thanks Ian,so we can pretty much write off Jan for cold (apart from maybe) the last few days.
Sounds to me like they are discounting any potential cold evolution from the ECM then..
-
Lots of scatter in the 00z ECM ensembles,but crucially the operational and the control
run both following the same cold path.
Lots of scatter? The vast majority look poor,one hopes the op and control are leading the way or its a long wait for something cold!
-
1
-
-
I think it is fair to say any potential change in regime is likely to be a very slow burner(if we get a meaningful change at all that is).
I mentioned the other day the cold is coming for central and Eastern Europe and the ECM 0z bears that out perfectly as the Arctic air sweeps south and east.
In summery,im not convinced of a meaningful change anytime soon...
-
06Z is hideous for cold! Its actually worse than 0z.
And that took some beating..
Still got eh prayer amtt out that Mogreps has spotted a pattern change.A pattern change that needs to encompass the never ending Euro high getting a life somewhere else!!
-
1
-
-
We seem to have rough x model agreement at day 5 now. What then happens remains uncertain but clearly, the momentum is with the less amplified solutions though not necessarily zonal in our latittude in our part of the NH. I wouldn't expect that we will no longer see any variations on the ops - it doesn't seem that clear cut as yet.the trend in deep fi ens land isn't great if you're expecting a neg -AO to sustain.The ECM extended last night showed a continuing 10/15% support for the scandi block (looking at Berlin and Warsaw). that has been consistent recently and yesterday's op was just plucked from that part of the ens. What intrigued was that the control was also from that chunk of members.
Its bleak Nick it really is.
This winter is fast turning into an absolute disaster for cold weather fans.
That Euro high is just a gift that keeps giving..
-
1
-
-
Yep,as expected the ecm backs away from its 12z run from yesterday.
Looks like another week about to be written off for any hope of cold and snow,im beginning to wonder if we might end up with a late 80's type horror show now,i really am.
Just having a gander at some of the temps across central and East Europe next week and its staggering,here is a flavour...
Minsk (Belarus)
sunday cloudy max 3 min 2
monday rain max 4 min 2
tuesday rain max 4 min 3
Wed rain max 5 min 4
Slightly more west into Poland we have wroclaw a western city and its actually beyond belief,check this out -
Wroclaw (Poland)
sunday dry max 9 min 3
monday dry max 10 min 1
tuesday dry max 8 min 3
Wed dry max ELEVEN min 3
I would imagine temps of 11 degrees in january in Poland are truely exceptional.
All this thanks to that huge blocking high across Europe.
-
1
-
-
GFS and UKMO say no.
Dreadful 0z GFS,hopefully the GEFS look better.
UKMO also looks poor going forward at 144- http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html with positive height anomalies across Europe I would anticipate Atlantic lows to be driving our weather thereafter.
I really hope ECM remains steadfast or I think we can write off the first 10 days of January(and that's probably being generous).
-
1
-
-
Be interesting how that GEM ends after that 144 chart..
Its a very zonal run with a very disturbed Atlantic but its a more cool zonal with PM air involved so potential for transient snowfall across elevated northern areas.
-
1
-
-
Sorry whats GPV/EH stand for?
Greenland Polar vortex/Euro high.
-
2
-
-
Temperature anomaly for the next 8 days remains above average for the bulk of Europe
Normal temps left expected temps right
Yep has been the same story since late November thanks to the evil duo the GPV/EH.
You have to go way east to see proper cold away from the influence of the HP across much of Europe which has promoted a mild airflow for countries like Poland Germany the Balkans and as far east as Ukraine.
Did anyone see such a setup in advance of winter?
-
1
-
-
UKMO still holding onto the same pattern it showed yesterday moving it up to T120. GFS having none of it at the same time period so it's over to the ECM. Quick look at GEM which continues the idea of the UKMO but has the Atlantic pushing back in. None these models show any proper cold I'm afraid.
Yes-that would be the natural progression unfortunately.
A couple of points I feel a bit like a track record really but we need to see the heights across Europe drain away.
Once low pressure gets into mainland Europe the ball game changes,until then,its going to be more of the same.
-
1
-
-
UKMO doesn't look great to my eyes.
I'd say the next step would be Atlantic systems moving in mainly thanks to the Euro high deflecting the jet north...
Can't see an easy route to cold on the 144 chart.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html
GFS offers some cold zonality as we again see those positive height anomalies across Europe kicked into touch..
-
4
-
-
METO are still on board.
"Some signals are also emerging for an increasing risk that the weather may undergo a change to colder weather types later this month."
Interesting, considering I F's posts recently
BFTP
Yes,i was expecting a downgrade today Fred-i guess there are conflicting signals (not suprising considering the timeframe involved),maybe Mogreps is pointing towards something decent?
Time will tell...
-
1
-
-
God i hope GFS is onto something!
Need snow fix need snow fix need snow fix!
I noticed the 00z GEFS seem quite keen to lower the 850's around the 10th/11th so hopefully this theme will be continued on the 06 GEFS.
Have to say though im not at all keen on the ECM0z or the news that that the EC32 is zonal but we have seen the EC32 flip before so although the probabilty of an Easterly remains low IMO it cannot be discounted.
-
1
-
-
Positive temp anomalies by end Jan/early Feb; SW flow.
Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.
Thats NOT good news Ian,will the metoffice updates tomorrow reflect it?
-
And all it took was for Happy Days to proclaim his shed was safe! lol
cecil if you please CC
Massive improvements on 18z, still waiting and hoping (and praying) for that Euro high to find a life somewhere else tho'!
-
2
-
-
but then you have much less data than they have and with due respect they do have professional expertise-most on here do not!
Fair comment JH.
-
yet again the positive heights across Europe are deflecting the jet north.
Until we see the back of the Euro high....
-
1
-
-
Europe turning colder is sometimes a good sign for coldies in this country.
Agreed Gaz,the trouble is the starting point is ridiculously mild its not that difficult to get a downward trend.I assume the drop in 850's is a response to the ridging from the Arctic as mentioned by Bluearmy.
ECM looks similar to UKMO at 144 so it will be interesting where we go from there...
-
1
-
-
about half the members are interesting crewe but overwhelming ? not yet - is there a clustered pattern showing ? not that i can see although the propensity to show arctic ridges is a good sign moving forward.
TBF Nick CC has forecast a January to rival Dec 2010 in terms of severity
The sheds safe btw !!
On a serious note i agree with the bit regarding the Artic high pressure cells but without a radical shift in the NAO its not going to be much use to the UK,the ways things stand countries as far east as Poland and Ukraine will just about see the benefit.
-
anytime i see highish heights to our north, i like the run. the ukmo ends in a similar place to this mornings ecm 00z run which was close to being an excellent run. as steve said, the current modelling is putting the polar high on an axis which will encourage the ridge to force down in our direction. that gives a good opportunity of either a greeny or scandi ridge, or supressed zonality with the jet way south and us north of the PFJ in slack low thickness air. all supposition that the ops are on the right track days 5/6/7 and the ens are not.
Fingers crossed-i remain dubious but my God i hope you are correct in your assessment.
-
you really cant see HD? i made a post this morning re the extended ens and their take on the next fortnight. that the ops had not made the running as yet this season and why now ? well there is a possibility that now could be their time. we have an upcoming scenario where lots of differing parts of the hemispherical patterns are interacting at the same time. with the behaviour of the polar high also crucial to the evolution, its feasible that the higher resolution of the ops is required to pin down the pattern at day 5/6. if the ens are in the wrong place at this timescale, then what they dish out thereafter will also be out of kilter to what may verify. its a small straw to clutch but it does happen from time to time and we are due a bit of luck from a cold perspective.
Looking at the ukmo no i can't Nick.
I see a -AO signature developing but i also see a strong Euro high and an intense PV moving into Greenland with bitterly cold air spilling out of North America to feed the Atlantic jet.
To my eyes the Euro high is dictating the pattern in conjunction with the low heights to the North west....
GFS FI at least replaces the high pressure anomalies across mainland Europe.
-
2
-
Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Yep CC,i see it buddy
It isn't getting anywhere near the UK though