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Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

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Posts posted by Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The models are poor for cold and the resiliant low heights to the North west are going nowhere anytime soon.

    The meto long ranger talks of unsettled weather to the middle of FEBRUARY!

    Those expecting a pattern change late Jan are going to have to revise their expectations now and i incluse myself in that i got briefly hopeful friday with an apprent atlantic retrograde signal,its gone im afraid.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    This is how the beeb see things at the moment for the end of the week curtsey of Alex Deakin 15 minutes ago

     

    Thursday

     

    Posted Image

     

    But its by Friday things could come interesting with high pressure over Scandinavia it could bring some cold air from the east or north east if it does it could be a very chilly day even a raw day across parts of England and wales, but weather fronts are trying to bump in from the west and they may eventually win out with the cold air in place for England and wales when the wet weather arrives there is just the possibility and thats all it is at this stage of some snow on Friday night

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

    Temps around average for the majority perhaps slightly below in the SE.

    And then the Atlantic rolls in,lets be honest here,its hardly bumping into freezing frigid air is it?

    Maybe some transient snow late Fri(judging by that graphic quite a bit of altitude will be required).

    We may see upgrdes,and at this juncture we really are in desperate need of some!

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Yup, the key forecasting headache is Fri-Sun, given the more bullish retention of colder conditions throughout this period in both 00z UKMO-GM & MOGREPS-15. For now, Ops Centre have modified towards a somewhat more progressive story (a nod towards the EC/NCEP solutions) but haven't gone wholescale across to that notion as yet. Thus, as they emphasise, their model suites would threaten a more wintry outcome but they won't lean more towards that unless the other key centres come aboard. So, a transient risk of rain onto frozen surfaces and/or leading edge snow late Fri... thereafter, as per their assessment yesterday, the return (possibly as late as Sunday... see above) of broadly westerly mobility into the trend period. Some colder drier or showery phases between rain events into 10-15d period. They didn't jump aboard the notions of looming wintry threat/much colder (as some expressed here yesterday) and still don't as of now, but quite rightly they won't get drawn on stuff out in la-la land reaches of post-10 days given degree of model swing lately & lack of coherent signal.

    Looks like snow to rain for the fortunate ones then.Followed by a westerly regime is the favourite outcome.

    Ah well,when you haven't seen a flake this winter i guess its better than nothing.

    Maybe the odd colder day with frost between Atlantic systems as we hit Feb.

    Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    GFS and ECM operationals still look promising for about 10 days time, with Arctic heights linking with the Azores High and allowing LP to move cleanly SE through the UK.

     

    However, GEM at T240 this morning shows what could happen if the Highs don't link up and LPs phase together in the North Atlantic :

     

    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014011800/gem-0-234.png?00

     

    Fascinating period for model watching coming up I feel.

    Yes,GEM shows what will happen if things don't go our way.

    And judging by the ECM mean there are a fair number of ECM members which look very much like the GEM 0z op.

    As i said,uncertainty reigns.:)

    Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Pretty much all the of the big 3 now agreeing on the azores high ridging in at around the 144h mark with a very positive NAO signature.

    Difficult to see Jan as anything other than a complete write off.

    We hope Feb can save the day as it were,a split vortex is looking likely but thats no guarentee of cold for the UK,if there is too much energy left to the north west then its still going to be an uphill struggle....

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    well put in my view, the anomaly charts have been pretty stable as you say over the last few days. The issue remains, as it shows most times on synoptic outputs, is what happens to the upper trough that splits just west of the UK. The EC-GFS link for this morning below, show much the same as NOAA shown above, marked ridging across most of the far north, troughing in the middle and a pretty persistent upper ridge in the Atlantic. Quite what will happen is totally foxing me and what sort of time scale. Just what is going to change this quite persistent pattern is hard to work out. Will it be events in the Stratosphere or something nothing to do with that below the Tropopause. No one knows so we have to wait to see what may unfold eventually. Fascinating for those who enjoy these weather conundrums but I can imagine cold lovers are becoming quite fed up?

    http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

    Th ecm mean looks blinkin woeful John.

    GFS offers a bit more hope of retrogression in the Atlantic.

    Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

    This chart probably sums up perfectly all thats wrong with the NWP this morning-i mentioned yesterday about the ukmo run looking to send the Atlantic energy NE and we can see from the ECM what is likely to happen thereafter---

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

    leading to-

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html

    GFS offers some hope in FI but im afraid its a poor set of 0z runs for cold weather fans,little point dressing it up any other way.:(

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