[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

UKMO keeps the faith.

And GFS 12Z has trended in the right direction.

OK maybe not a big freeze but certainly the chance for some snow for parts of the UK.

Im that desperate i'll take a day of snow showers..

Even if the low pressures dives down to the SE I can't see anything stopping the Atlantic powering over us again. Not enough amplification or proper blocking. Each run is just a variation on the same big picture theme.

 

UKMO 144

 

 

Only one way that stuff to the west is going, our way.

 

As on GFS

Lets ignore the fact that UKMO would bring snow showers for parts of the UK then Bobby?

PS GFS is actually a pretty wintry run

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

Why is GFS 0z pants in regards to your location, NW England, when it shows bursts of cold polar WNW maritime air, a wind direction that favours the region for potential wintriness when Ian Fergusson himself mentioned in a post before about the coldness of that flow?

If GFS 0z comes off i doubt you or me would be seeing much snow Mr D.

UKMO on the other hand...

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

GFS0Z is pants,nothing more,nothing less.

UKMO looks slightly more favourable but can't see the 850s so not sure if its cold rain on the menu,or snow.

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014]

Call me a pessimist this morning, but I'm getting to the point now where patience is slowly running out and we are getting to the point in this winter where it is almost getting too late. Yes I am sort of going back on my own words and comments at times with regards to using last March as an example, but this potential SSW this winter continues to be within a region of the forecast time period that does keep getting put further and further ahead. Charts like this from the latest ECMWF for the end of January and now clearly nearly the 1st of February are still a long way from anything of worth;

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf30f240.gif

 

...again for anything of interest it remains in the far reaches of the GFS model run and clearly this chart, for example, has potential but it still shows an almost intact vortex and no doubt would still equate to some sort of general westerly flow for the UK;

 

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140122/00/372/npst30.png

 

Clearly that chart is now for the 6th of February. Last February and particularly March was, without question, an exception to the rule. To get such a cold synoptic pattern and broader flow sustained like we did during the second half of March and obviously the well known blizzard around the 21st/22nd will, unlikely, be achieved again this winter.

 

It's not as though the expected state of the vortex for this winter was unknown, clearly Ed pointed this out many, many weeks ago. What I am simply trying to highlight here, whether it be agreed with or disagreed with is that time is running out for anything of worth and the much needed SSW or at least a more pronounced disruption to the vortex to at lease bring a possible stop to this relentless westerly flow continues to be progged in a time frame that never really seems to get to present day.

 

There's always some hope for a week or two of cold weather clearly during the 2nd half of February, but by that time, as ever, it will really have to be something noteworthy otherwise any lying snow, particularly at lower levels and across southern areas of the UK never lasts and a -5C 850mb N or NW'ly just won't do the trick in my opinion.

 

Not throwing in the towel as such just yet, but still, time is running out and I'll be getting to a point where it'll be a case of damage control and limitation and then move on to spring and hope to the stratospheric gods above that next winter doesn't resemble anything like this "winter"...note the air quotes!

 

Regards, Matt.

Thanks matt:)

Always enjoy reading your thoughts-

Not looking good really,oh well.We were due a mild one,i don't think many anticipated just how relentlessly zonal its been though.

If i were to be honest,im bored of this relentless wind and rain and im getting a bit bored with the same synoptics/NH setup day afer day.

Fingers crossed we get a nice dry summer to counter-balance this sorry excuse for a winter.

cheers..

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14]

Gaz1985, Richie V I expect, cannot see posts anyway of theirs,

lol.

Thats a bit harsh,they are good seasoned members.

Anyway,ECM out shortly,really hoping the 144 chart looks similar to UKMO 144 as the following charts will be interesting imo.

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

Difficult to say but at face value there is potential in this chart with a genuine Arctic high and the high across Finland strecthing across the GIN into Eastern Greenland.

I know this set against one of the most intense robust Polar vortex in the history of mankind but at the very least a colder form of zonality is surely the least best option....

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

Well as Fergie has said,yet again,rainfall is the cheif concern for the reliable period.

After that,i guess your location and altitude will play a big part of what you are going to see falling out of the sky.

If your up north and have 200-300m altitude the outlook is potentially interesting,if you live in the south and have little altitude,than the outlook is probably extremely grim from a snow perspective...

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

Tell you what,that meto update looks spot on looking at GFS12Z.Westerly regime with hill snow in the north .

A concern has to be the ammount  of rain though,worrying for those already affected.

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

I suppose the 12z is giving us good shots at cold zonality thanks to the heights to the northeast and the orientation of the jet. No deep cold but an improvement to yesterday's 12z.Karyo

Yes K,

GFS 12Z gives hope fo something wintry mid term for those in the north with altitude.

Looks better than the 06z in that regard..

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

Hmmm bit of a dogs dinner gfs12z.

The azores high wants to pull west but that PV energy is just producing jet streak after jet streak and flattening everything out before we can get the retrogression needed to break out of this horrible cycle.

So frustrating!

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

 There's nothing 'surprising' about it, however... it's January; the WBFL is down to 400m... nought unusual!

Will be suprising if one watched the latest Beeb forecast ian!

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

Thursday could be interesting!

Higher routes across the north in particular could get a suprise snowfall out of this.

First taste of winter?

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

bit concerned about how quickly the arctic high is cut off from the other side on ecm this morning. i think thats why the low clears slowly without a decent flow behind it. could do with a good build of heights to push the cold west. anyway, better overall and good to see the spreads from last night illustrated on the following op.

First step is the Atlantic retrograde BA-

Once/if that happens all doors to cold open....

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

well they have mogreps and we don't, they have a lot more data than we get in the public domain, so is it really out of kilter?

C;mon Frosty we have lift off now,the gefs 0z are really good,and the ecm is superb.

I hope to see meto outlook upgrade

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

Some excellent runs this morning and you have to say what the ECM is predicting is the most likely based on the model runs over the past few days. My only reservation is something I mentioned many days ago and that is the importance of the LP moving S of the UK. The UKMO is also heading the same way as the ECM.

 

Looking at the GEFS ensembles I think this is the first time this winter the mean has dropped below -5C for my location. Just shows what a crap winter it has been so far!

 

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20140121/00/t850Cambridgeshire.png

 

I can see the Met O outlook changing to a more wintry outlook. Have to be honest I haven't agreed with there outlook these past few days as it appears out of kilter with the model output.

Agreed TEITS-Surely the meto have to take into account GEFS0Z and the ECM?

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

Well after the despair of GFS0Z comes the good news...

ECM is loaded with potential:D

And the GEFS have trended colder.

 

Can we/dare we hope??

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

It still doesn't seem to have a handle on how to model high pressure across the Arctic that's for sure.

 

GEM is a bit far East with the pattern but it was till looking pretty good out to day 6 until falls apart later by refusing to pushing the trough into Europe as you would expect and instead stalls and fills it over the UK. (seem familiar?) I really hope that doesn't happen again some peoples heads will explode for sure.

 

 

UKMO looks pretty decent too with the pattern further West than GEM but we could still do with more amplification upstream.

 

Dont see much 'decent' about the ukmo mucka? Maybe the zonality which will follow will be of a cooler variety but i'd imagine it will be nothing but a pain in the backside for soggy Britain(or 99%of it).

Some really cold Ens at around T200, many with cold and quite strong Easterly flows

Trouble is we never see them on the op runs!!!!

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

Not overly impressed with the 0z runs if im being honest-

The opportunity exists for northern elevated areas as we head through next week but for those in the south and i dare say most of England and Wales its just unsettled cold rain im afraid.

Quick check of the uppers on the UKMO 0z run leaves me underwhelmed for the friday rain to rain event.

We have ECM to come but yesterdays optimism has dropped a bit,we just cant seem to shake that spawn of satan Polar Vortex,if i see oranges and yellows up there in spring/summer my head will explode with rage!

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

GEFS mean at day 10

 

 

Still staring down the barrel of the Canadian cyclone cannon to our NW.

It just won't go away!

Jet looks to be sinking south to me Bobby? Granted probably not great for the South but further north and altitude could be OK...

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14]

Personally I think it's time we bit the bullet and put winter 13/14 to rest. Some may think this is an over reaction but in reality we're looking towards Feb at the earliest for any meaningful cold pattern setting up. I've not seen a single snowfall this winter, not one....and that ranks it up there with the very worst of the '90s dross....at least I saw the odd NW'ly Cheshire gap scenario back then.

 

Someone said the other day that this upcoming spell was 'not your average toppler'....well that's certainly true, it's not even a toppler scenario (which I would quite happily take right now to be honest).

 

As we progress through Feb, lying snow will be harder and harder to maintain and by March snowfall will not lie here...March 2013 taught me that- higher ground still fine though.

I can understand and share your frustration CC but we got to dig in here and wait.

That Vortex has to relent and it will over the next couple of weeks IMO.

Mid Feb i think we'll be in the zone

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

Wanting to see that Azores high pulled west now.

Thats one fierce Atlantic(in keeping with winter so far really)...

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

Well im still hopeful of something more wintry but the meto update is a bit of a disappointment really.

Friday still looks potentially snowy (albeit transient) for those with altitude as the front bumps into colder air.

After that its all about trends,hopefully they will be positive

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

Well  im normally quite reserved in my analysis,so  i dont want to get too carried away this morning but there is for sure grounds for optimism if its colder weather you want (and lets face it,if you dont,your about   as welcome here as a cross dresser at a vladimir putin house party.)

GFS has shifted quite a considerable way west on its 0z run and ukmo looks better than yesterday.While ECM isn't quite as keen on the move westwards in the pattern its later slides are full of positives.

I really hope we can build on todays 0z runs!

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

MUCH improved NWP this morning!!

[Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.html

So close yet so far...

Finding it very difficult to see a route away from a PV dominated Atlantic regime moving forward....the profile to the North East looks good,but the (dominant)profile to the North west looks as bad as it has since the beginning of December.