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Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

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Posts posted by Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

    Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I think the lack of comments re the ECM speaks for itself. Dreadful is being kind, at this rate I'll have to retire my I Survived 88/89 Winter T-Shirt and replace it with a new one for this winter!

     

    Troughing stuck near the UK, wind rain in plentiful supply, I think any blocking to the east is just a nuisance now by stopping any eastwards movement in the pattern. The output is now relentlessly consistent and that's always a bad sign, unless a miracle happens then I think we can write off the next two weeks for anything remotely wintry bar a few hours of slush over the next few days.

     

    That takes us to the middle of February, so either the current strat warming delivers a change and we start to see that showing up in next weeks later outputs or we can consign this winter to the scrap heap as just a throwback to some of the horror shows in the past of which there have been many, recent winters have rather skewed the picture somewhat although even in many of those dire winters you'd get the odd northerly toppler or at least a few days of something!

    Nick i have said this time and time again.That Russian High is absolutely awful news for UK cold.Even when it does retrogress far enough west to benefit the UK it very rarely sticks around long enough to bring long term cold.Im aware its the favoured option for the South East for obvious reasons but if it doesnt get far enough west its disasterous and nearly always ends up eating away large chunks of winter with the UK stuck in no mans land at the mercy of the slow moving Atlantic systems .FWIW I ALWAYS watch for the emergence of a russian anticyclone as a MAJOR negative as we approach the winter months.Give me a strong Greenland high any day of the week.The pattern for the next 10 days MINIMUM is set and its a wet one.

    Im going to stick with my theory of a very cold spring again this year with masses of blocking across Greenland as we head into mid march/April,it doesnt cut the mustard for me though and im sure many others.

    Thats my last post for the most vile winter i have EVER known,and im 40!

    No idea what summer will bring this year but my god we are long overdue some drier weather at some point...

    Good luck to all the NW members for the rest of the year we'll all be back in November,hopefully the weather gods will not put us through ANYTHING like what we have endured this time round,for a long time...

    • Like 6

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just watched the beeb week ahead and to say im underwheled is an understatement! No suprise the models pretty much bore out what the presenter said.

    Coldest all week 3 deg on thurs before the wind and rain roll in.tue and wed where 6deg and 5 deg.

    Cant see much of a winterwonderland this week with those kind of temps,what an utter disappointment.

    Hacked off...

    • Like 1

    Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

      I doubt we would need a warming that strong to see some very tasty synopticsdeveloping during February.Great stuff again Recretos.Agreed Lorenzo is this what Ian F and co were hinting about if so and we docontinue to see a very strong and amplified wave 2 pattern and split Iwonder when there may be a mention in their 30day forecast of perhaps a bigpattern change on the way.Although it could be argued that what we are seeingin the model output now is the start of this change.

    Hmmm-longer range modelling (GFS/ECM)continue with the poor profile to the north west as far as the eye can see...

    Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.html

    Thursday remains the best option for snow this week in my opinion.

    Moreso the further north and east you go.

    Before that im not sure the uppers are low enough for snow as opposed to wintry showers,

    Obviously i hope the ECM is wrong with its evolution thereafter but the growing consensus seems to be an Atlantic breakthrough,whether its a damp squib or something more interesting remains to be seen...

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    When you sit back and think about it you just couldnt make our luck up-

    The number of times down the years i have seen fabtastic cold charts from GFS/ECM at 144h and the UKMO saying no and nearly EVERY time the UKMO has been correct-i might be wrong but it might of even been 120h a couple of times..

    The ONE time i can remember the UKMO showing cold heaven at 144h and the ECM/GFS not agreeing the UKMO goes and completely backs off.

    I had a full head of brown hair when i joined this (great) forum,is it any wonder i look in the mirror and see tele savalas Posted Image

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    You are missing the point on the those ens. We are going to be under a cold nw European trough . The less cold air is progged to push up into Poland by the circulation. it doesn't make much difference to us unless you are expecting a long fetch easterly. my point is that those ens don't show the ukmo solution at all. The ukmo evolution just looks wrong. It did earlier on and it looks even more wrong now. Hence my surprise at the faxes,

    Unfortunately nick i agree with you.

    Its pretty apparent now UKMO DET runs today are/were leading us up the garden path.

    That said,i'd take my chances with the 12z ecm :)

    Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    My own personal view is that many will be left disappointed, esp in the south. ECM, given the 850s and associated secondary low heading se by t168, has the potential to deliver transient snow to the south; but it all appears temporary, as is often the case when relying on cold from the NW! The block, according to ext ecm will have less influence on the UK by days 10-15! However, it appears temps will remain below average throughout this period, so naturally we could see wet snow at times, but it would appear rainfall totals are the major concern at this juncture.

    Posted Image

    days 10-15, heights, ecm ext

    HUGE ammount of northern blocking on that chart.

    The million dollar question is can we get the limpet rough far enough south...

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

    I would have thought Scotland based on JMA? Or am I reading this wrong please correct my mistake if so.

    I think im correct(someone will if im wrong) but the midlands has seen some great snowfalls from sliders in the past...

    I thought we would have had a bit more to go on from the media side about next week by now, with the very cold looking charts, from the ecm mean & the ukmo's last 6 model runs which have all been very wintry looking..this might turn a little cooler next week is really a bit feeble I think..

    Im with you karl,its concerning me.

    TBH SO many times in the past we have sat here crowing over the cold synoptics at 144h and the meto have refused to ramp,9 times out of 10 when t0 arrives im wearing wellies and carrying an umbrella..

    Im Praying for a change tomorrow Posted Image

    • Like 2
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