Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
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Posts posted by Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
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Given the ECM ensembles and the GEFS trend I would be shocked if the UKMO didn't change their outlook to at least include more uncertainty and more possible snow.
If we can get the low to sink favourably and the blocking a bit further west then it does look like even with another pulse of a stronger jet out of the USA that this could be diverted se.
Agreed Nick
If we dont see at least a subtle change in the outlook then i for one will begin to worry.
EDIT Im looking forward to the GFS06Z and impatiently waiting for the misery model to correct south.
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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html
A pretty chart if its cold you are after with a huge anticyclone over NW Russia moving westwards and a pretty significant Artic high moving out the Arctuc circle of 1040mb.
The deep purples have also drained away from Greenland.
I doubt the Atlantic will be going anywhere but SE moving forward from that.
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EC Ensembles awaited,hopefully even colder than yesterday with the operational on the mild side of the mean..
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Before I post the Ecm 00z op run I just thought all the coldies on here would like to see the GEM 00z, it looks like one of those classic archive charts that coldies will look back on with fond memories but it's actually for next week and beyond, it's absolutely sensational, It would bring blizzards, severe drifting, ice days and severe penetrating frosts with sub -10 T850 hPa across the uk, and at least -5 or lower...the ukmo 00z is also a peach, no downgrade there..just waiting to hear something now from the television forecasters about next week..that will be the icing on the cake.
I can feel a mighty BOOM on the way.Erm,can i see that pic with the 10 out of 10 card please,its my favourite
Rampppppppppede
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Fantastic output this morning with GEM taking top prize.
ECM looks cold and wintry as we move through next week.
All in all the meto surely have to move towards something more wintry,surely..
wow tiets,we posted at the same time,same thinking..
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ecm = cold zonality
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How very odd,rain with the odd flake here
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Not a great GFS12Z unfortunately.Very frustrating run esp with a 1045mb anticyclone sat to the North east...
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GFS pumps up the siberian high to 1050MB.
Thats a very very impressive anticyclone..
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Temps just a couple of degreesabove freezing across parts of England next wednesday as the air is pulled in off the continent.
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GFS 06Z has adjusted the scandy high slightly west as early as t36!!!
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http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php?run=00
I know this will probably have been posted- however this is the BEST ECM suite of the year & will 100% sway the meto office into changing the literature of their outlooks -
As we can see a significant amount of members for prolonged cold with the operational looking a little progressive.
another strong day & POSSIBLE kudus for the UKMO-
Of note the GFS does have good trough disruption at 168/192 which is actually better than the ECM so at this stage fair play if that's correct.
S
Hope so Steve-
The ensembles for De Bilt have most certainly trended colder.
Will be fascinating to see if GFS continues in the same vein as the Euro models.
METO update again awaited for signs of a move towards a colder outlook.(God knows iv'e only been waiting since like November)!
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Im quite confused.com ive been reading the posts above Gibbys which seemed to be positive for coldies and then i read Gibbys???
Yes im not sure how Gibby can say the window has closed a little more for cold this morning.
If anything the wintry charts have upgraded since yesterday....
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The ECM ensemble mean looks better than the actual operational run, also the spreads show the pattern further west past at T168hrs.
I'd expect to see an increase in colder solutions when the ECM De Bilt ensembles come out shortly.
Great news Nick-
Certainly those trumpetting the Atlantic only yesterday might be rethinking their views this morning
The ukmo 00z is a peach, it's sublime, it's poetry in motion with strengthening height rises to the north east / north and that stormy slider low on sunday gradually enabling much colder air to dig further south & west. If the ukmo or something similar verifies, next week will be a snow fest with ice days and blizzards..it's a carlsberg run, an upgrade on yesterday even. The fuse has been lit by the ukmo
Thats ma boy
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Out in the land of fantasies, but this would keep those of us who like the cold very happy if it came off...
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif
EASTERLY flow,-5 uppers= snow
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Yes,ECM also brings in some cold air and before anyone jumps in with a 'here comes the Atlantic zonal regime',yes it is zonal but is COLD zonal.
Exciting stuff, could our fortunes be about to turn>
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Well well well...
UKMO showing very good consistency.
Fergie's thoughts might be worth a read today...
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Of course we can all get things wrong but i think I'll stick with the Pros on this one.
Absolutely,no truck with that- im very wary of NWP until i see the metoffice 'on board'.
The picture is complex though and the UKMO 144 looks finely balanced.The 12z ensembles have also trended colder.
We'll see...
General Cecil was using the 'lookikg good ' GEFS as the basis for his argument against my cold rain suggestion so that's why I've used the same charts in response.
I was talking about the UKMO run but the GEFS suite has trended colder this evening.
Hence my more optimistic stance.
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That was a long range seasonal forecast, totally different beast to a medium range weather forecast... come on, be fair!
The point is,they get it wrong sometimes and have been wrong at short,medium and long range timeframes.
The GEFS 12Z suite and ukmo are looking good for a cold shot.
It may or may not happen,we'll see...
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See the post from Ian F..........
And?
UKMO favour a return to Atlantic regime,they also favoured a barbeque summer in 2007/8?
They get it wrong sometimes Purga,as do we all.
Anyway,GEFS 12Z are looking very good for next week.
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The GEFS 12z ensembles are pretty interesting around 168hrs to 192hrs - quite a bit more support for some kind of easterly flow than the 06z and previous ensembles, quite a shift really. Means:
Quite a few petrubations pull in a cold easterly feed. Does look temporary though as it's back to normal after that, 216hrs:
Will be interesting to see if the ECM and its ensembles back this up later
Yes,momentum building for some kind of cold outbreak as the trough drops to the South east next week.
Fingers crossed..
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Posts and the "Greenland high". Every year we have this but people forget that often the Greenland high shown on charts is not really there.
This is a true Greenland high
Look at the yellows and the oranges in that area
oh kev what we give for something like this tmorrow,the north west thread was buzzing.
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yes, but his bigger point is indeed valid. Snow possible, but we have these lower heights to our nw! As long as that stays, the Atlantic will continue to influence our weather - and not in a favourable way!
Yes-snow is possible,that will do for me for now thanks..
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I can feel a mighty BOOM on the way.
Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
GFS blows away the block in FI-
Quelle suprise,what a joke of a model it really is....
In the high res we at least see some snow events as the Atlantic pushes up against the block to the NE.