[North West Regional Weather Discussion 10/02/14]

Really good to see you guys seeing some snowfall,not like we#ve had to wait long this winter

[North West Regional Weather Discussion 10/02/14]

snow plough just gone past lol

[North West Regional Weather Discussion 10/02/14]

Some heavy precip heading into the north west now,looking really good for our cumbrian brothers and lancastrian brothers.

Think im to far south here in greater manchester at the moment

[North West Regional Weather Discussion 10/02/14]

Well the beeb forecast is VERY underwhelming,hmm,not sure if the midlands is going to get all the snow later.

Time will tell

[North West Regional Weather Discussion 10/02/14]

Temp gone up to 4c.

Yeh,just been for a little walk and one can feel already the sun has a bit more of a punch now in mid Feb,this evening and tonight when the sun goes down is perhaps our one and only chance this feb of falling and lying snow.

[North West Regional Weather Discussion 10/02/14]

Manchester Airport latest TAF goes for snowlong-TAF: EGCC 111102Z 1112/1218 26014KT 9999 FEW020 TEMPO 1115/1205 26018G28KT 5000 -SHSN PROB30 TEMPO 1115/1119 1500 SHSN VV/// PROB30 TEMPO 1200/1205 1000 SN VV/// BECMG 1203/1206 19012KT BECMG 1209/1212 18018G28KT TEMPO 1209/1214 6000 RA BKN012 TEMPO 1212/1215 18025G38KT PROB40 TEMPO 1212/1214 3000 +RA PROB30 TEMPO 1214/1218 5000 SHRA BECMG 1215/1218 21028G45KTI still haven't seen any snow since April last year.

Fingers crossed kev,might be a dryer slot for a couple of hours before showers start moving in off the sea later,nice to see manny TAF suggesting snow later.

[North West Regional Weather Discussion 10/02/14]

It has gone remarkbly colder out there though

Yep thats the colder uppers moving in Sparkles.Between now and this time tomorrow is our 'window'.

[North West Regional Weather Discussion 10/02/14]

snow line about 300m here at the mo.

Should drop later as the colder air follows this band.

[North West Regional Weather Discussion 10/02/14]

im excited i hope its not a let down

Hard to call really,cant help thinking bit of altitude will help,defo  a decent 200m and above will see a covering imo.. 

[North West Regional Weather Discussion 10/02/14]

rained quite heavy for about 5 minutes.

yes,colder uppers not arrived yet so maybe its not hugely suprising.you should do okay tomorrow CM

[North West Regional Weather Discussion 10/02/14]

raining.

What? Now?

[North West Regional Weather Discussion 10/02/14]

Very cold out there.

Im a bit suprised by the manchester TAF considering the warnings by the meto.

We'll find out soon enough..

[North West Regional Weather Discussion 27/01/14]

Its well cold out just been Asda..when is this meant to start...?

I think later tonight tomorrow morning

[North West Regional Weather Discussion 27/01/14]

So glad we finally have something to chat about

This thread may come to lif tomorrow whoop.

[North West Regional Weather Discussion 27/01/14]

Nothing wintry in Manchester Airport's latest TAF, just going for heavy rain.long-TAF: EGCC 100502Z 1006/1112 17008KT 9999 FEW025 PROB40 TEMPO 1010/1023 7000 SHRA BKN012 BECMG 1012/1015 26010KT BECMG 1021/1024 18007KT BECMG 1103/1106 17017KT TEMPO 1104/1108 18020G30KT 7000 RA BKN013 PROB30 TEMPO 1104/1108 4000 +RA BKN009 BECMG 1106/1109 24014KT PROB40 TEMPO 1108/1112 23017G27KT 7000 SHRA

Yes- i feel altitude will play a big role over the coming days,im talking 250m plus so areas to the west of manchester look like getting very wet,even places such as ashton oldham will struggle to see any lying snow imo.

[North West Regional Weather Discussion 27/01/14]

Cumbria might well do quite well this week actually.Esp with high ground places will see cover IMO.

[North West Regional Weather Discussion 27/01/14]

Interesting!

The metoffice 5 dayer for oldham now shows snow at various times this week

[North West Regional Weather Discussion 27/01/14]

models on the face of it look interesting this week with gfs high res showing snow for our part of the world.The metoffice 5 dayer for higher parts of this area is dreadful as far as snow chances are concerned though with not even a sleet symbol on the hour by hour forecast and thats for moorside which is about 250m above sea level.

EDIT I will qualify that post by saying the meto app has it dry here at the moment and its very heavy drizzle so im not sure that this feature is that accurate..

[Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards]

Storms and flooding is what the latest models are showing so it's very relevant to this thread, very overwhelming weather for many, especially for those in the flooded / storm bound southwest and trending colder with an increasing chance of sleet and wet snow with ice & frost overnight.

Karl,im not saying its not relevant but there is another thread for indepth analysis of the storm situation.

I posted about the 0z runs being Atlantic driven with a small window of opportunity next week for something more wintry in the north,which is what the ecm/ukmo runs show.

[Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards]

Underwhelming? Those suffering the effects of storms and floods are overwhelmed and with the generally stormy pattern set to continue for at least the next 7-10 days, it looks like becoming even worse. It also looks a rather colder outlook with a higher chance of wet snow and overnight ice/frost.

Yes karl,underwhelming from a cold perspective.

There is a thread for the storms flooding etc i was commenting on the ongoing Atlantic dominated 0z charts.

[Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards]

Whilst we sit in a period of slack strat flow which leaves the trop to make the running, it should be noted that within 2 weeks, zonal flow in the strat recovers to levels which will begin to restrict certain trop patterns developing. If its worth still seeking a wintry period at this juncture, we will require a suitable trop pattern to have become established within 2/3 weeks.a relocation of the vortex to w siberia would be the kind of thing to be seeking. Somehow, i doubt the canadian master will relinquish his throne this winter.Plenty of dire stuff to negotiate over the next week at least.Still decent chances of snowfall over elevation and northern uk next week, moreso 10/11/12 th

Yep,must admit to being suprised by teits optmisitc sounding post BA-There looks precious little to be optimistic about for cold lovers from where im sat this morning.

[Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards]

The next lull in the PV, previous ones have promised much but delivered nothing, so caution, will start later next week. We may get another storm next Monday/Tuesday, though some GEFS still not on board. Then we have 3-4 days as the Canadian PV lobe moves from west to east north of the UK, mean at T180:

 

gens-21-1-180 (5).png

 

From about D9 our sector has less energy from the west and the GEFS are relatively confident of a slack flow over us, mean:

 

gens-21-1-216.png  With a cool upper profile in situ: gens-0-0-216.png

 

At that time onwards is when amplification in the Atlantic starts, with the associated trough developing close to the UK. At this range it is clearly a mixed bag from the GEFS, with some only showing minor ridging, some temporary, one or two link to Greenland and one or two to Scandi. The spread at T300 highlights that quandry:

 

gens-22-1-300.png  mean: gens-21-1-300 (3).png

 

FWIW at the end of FI, the PV is reorganising and most of the promise of the ridging is flattened out. Its then 50% zonal and 40% MLB near the UK. Some of those MLB drag in some cold air as they are based SW to NE and there is one HLB chart:

 

gensnh-16-1-384.png

 

GEM looks in line with some of the GEFS, at T240, with an initial Atlantic ridge toppler:  gemnh-0-240 (20).png

 

ECM is the same, progressive in flattening any Atlantic ridge: ECH1-240 (16).gif

 

Probably due to a lobe of the Canadian PV remaining at base, the flatter GEFS cluster also have this profile.

 

So more seasonal (average) weather on the agenda probably next week but still no snowy/wintry period showing up yet.

Pretty much agreed-very underwhelming outputs again today.No sign whatsoever of height rises where we need them(Greenland).

But,the chances periodically of pm air off the Atlantic might well offer some cheer for northern folk with altitude.

[Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards]

One word sums up this mornings output again and thats unsettled.

Im watching next tues/wed as there is potential for a brief spell of colder uppers across parts of the north.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

After that though we see ECM building high pressure across Europe-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.html

Some warm uppers moving into Central Europe courtesy of a intense euro high..

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14]

Utterly depressing models

Feb is looking like a write off now,2014 the year without a winter....

[Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards]

Have I missed something because all the models for the next week to possibly 10 days seem to be showing anything but an Uncle Barty theme?

It was almost inevitable given the profile to the North west im afraid.I think most of us who have been round the block saw the Feb outlook as soon as it became aparent the scandy high was getting shunted east...