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Penicuikblizzard

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    Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24

    in Scottish Weather Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

    Some charts to follow on from Ross' post above..

    ICON / EC / GFS / UKV - all have variation with timing and intensity of the low passing through, case of wait and see what it does tomorrow ! 

    image.thumb.png.2baa7d75e7fc0f0262fcdf61d91a8f1b.pngimage.thumb.png.92cfee6de1a7ff6feb08a54b55f87fca.pngimage.thumb.png.7c95f911e6faba9fb35082feaca271a5.pngimage.thumb.png.a2f92b7918de4f924b841b22a24128c0.png

    Looks like reasonable chance of something decent away from the coast and with a bit elevation ❄️ at least for here the wind is coming from the NW so should help us for a change. Well fingers crossed 🤞 

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    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Penicuikblizzard

    9 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

    As has been discussed above re the chances of exceptionally mild conditions - I suppose it depends on your definitions. Looking at climate normals for London at Kew Gardens we'd expect daily means of 5C in January, with maxima 8-9C and minima around 2C. Going off that, anything with a daily mean in high single figures is mild, 10C very mild, probably 12C or so exceptionally mild.

    Here's what the GFS 12z is showing for the period of interest (around 23rd).

    ,chart(57).thumb.png.4588323f1385d3d0d093d7b73b4d7cf2.pngchart(58).thumb.png.6ed3c4736b2c105a9216c3be2cd1778c.png

    We know from experience that these temperature projections usually underdo things in winter by 1C or more, so taking the mean at face value we'd have maxima around 11-12C and minima 7-8C, which is very mild. And quite a few of the ensembles are pushing that up towards mid-teens by day and high single figures overnight or even double figures - that would qualify as exceptionally mild. I would note that this warmth is impressively widespread on some ensembles as well, it may not just be a London/SE thing.

    Anything cold in that period is virtually completely gone from the ensemble, so you're left with mild, very mild, or exceptionally mild.

    Of course, this says nothing in relation to what some of our more experienced posters are saying about a turn colder towards the very end of the month or into early February, but before that, very mild conditions are likely, and exceptionally mild conditions are possible. That's what I'd say for now.

    In terms of the 'typical' pattern if we do go exceptionally mild, here's what P25 looks like from today's GFS 12z.

    image.thumb.png.5c9200ab8e9c16bf0b5a3f7330c1792c.png image.thumb.png.8efc68c1252825aac2b70e174f9a4df3.png

    image.thumb.png.16ea6fe9e9dd232574d12de42600e1b2.png

    Wet, windy and mild, with a long-fetch south-westerly from the Azores. Mildness exacerbated further by the extremely mild sea surface temperatures over the Azores. The date record for the 23rd is only 15.2C, and would likely come under threat.

    image.thumb.png.6aeec97ab76757af88ae1b1c7c64e6e5.png

    Summary

    So, to sum up, looking at the period of interest for something notably mild, mild conditions in the period 22-24th are extremely likely, very mild conditions are likely, and exceptionally mild conditions that threaten date records are distinctly possible.

    Don't mean to rain on anyone's bonfire here, but the models show what the models show.

    Both our experienced posters on here and the longer-range models are suggesting very late in the month or into early February for our next roll of the dice, so what I am saying here in no way conflicts with their view. I see no reason we won't have more chances. It is just a case of whether we can land a substantial cold and snowy spell for the majority of the UK out of these beneficial large-scale patterns.

    I'll compare notes with the ECM ensembles later.

    There is a lot of extreme cold bottled up to our NE, I have seen this so many times in the past where we have extremely mild temperatures only to followed by a bitter easterly which can happen without notice. I’m still hopeful in fact confident a cold February is coming 🥶🥶🥶

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    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, doctormog said:

    To describe this weather as a toppler is misleading and sounds like “everything that comes from the north that doesn’t give me snow” is a “toppler”. The synoptics show a bitterly cold Arctic/polar flow and not something casually dismissed as a toppler even if large parts of the country do not see snow.

    A toppler is normally a 24/48hr event this is a 5/6 day cold spell so most definitely not a toppler.

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    Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24

    in Scottish Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

    Are we looking at a potential 2009/10 style cold spell here (which we are probably overdue if we don’t count the BFTE in 2018?), or is it looking less sustained than that?

    My phone was earlier showing temps in Glasgow of around -12 during next week, but these have since been replaced with around -6/-7.

    Popped into the model thread, absolutely nothing of use on display in there…

    It’s certainly not going to be on the scale of 09/10 especially here in the Central belt.  The North should do well though ❄️

    • Like 6

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

    Have to say im not a fan of sub zero daytime temps with no snow, its just cold and icy and frankly unpleasant where you need some form of heating all the time.

    Its like when its over 35c and humid in summer with no storms but in reverse and that's unpleasant too

    That’s generally what happens with a Northerly living in the Central belt sadly dry and cold 🥶

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    Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24

    in Scottish Weather Discussion

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

    Purely going on past experience, I’d be amazed if Central Scotland got a lot of snow from a front moving in from any direction bar the east. Northerlies create wishbone effect and westerlies tend to turn to rain. Struggling to get the excitement so far, not wanting to put a dampener on it but I can also sense the possibility of mass disappointment next week!

    North of the Central belt is a different matter of course.

    That was always the case Notherlies are only good for the North and coastal areas, the rest are relying on troughs in the flow. So looking dry and cold for the majority in South Scotland 🥶

    • Like 6

    Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24

    in Scottish Weather Discussion

    Posted

    4 hours ago, edo said:

    😁 not going to be a ramp big enough.... I liked this from 18z showing the 510 line. Pretty good consensus that we are entering a 2 week ish cold and potentially for some a snowy spell, particularly for the NE.... Mair Snaw  may will be a happy boy soon. 

    Lorenzo... LS.... Kirkcaldy et al.... who is going to give us a scottish perspective of the upcoming spell.... the MT about to break into an old fashioned North v South bun fight. 

    gfs-3-228.png.a7b1c9d1a799af0d1b5cb53d2605cb24.png

    The north of Scotland will do very well, Disruptive snow I would reckon ❄️

    Us in the central belt will be relying on troughs in the flow as we will be sheltered from the showers in the north wind 💨 But all in I’m sure most will see something 

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