Snowy Liverpool

UKMO is a weird one. The only time that updates is t96 on wetterzentrale at first, then meteociel updates it as normal shortly after. Edit: Looks like we're getting the undercut, though much more marginal than the ECM. Just remember where we were at 2 runs ago, this is miles better.

I'd much rather sacrifice one snow event for something that would lock us in a cold spell for at least a week than get the snow event and then a return to mild. Though on that subject UKMO has a much narrower warm sector. As for the run, an undercut might be asking too much, but once again this is big progress from the GFS.

UKMO at t96 is similar to 18z GFS, though slightly further west. All lows around the UK rapidly weakening.

Interesting turn of events at t90. This might just happen...

That T just to the northeast of the shortwave is weaker, plus it's surrounded by very small high pressures at t54. I would hope that would lead to the T disintegrating and high pressure building above the shortwave.

Much less active north atlantic on this run. The GFS might just about be realizing that the Polar Vortex disappeared from this area. Took it long enough.

Very small high pressure to the Northeast of that shortwave on t90. Could that be the link between the euro high and the greenland high

ECM has made it clear that we actually want the high in the Atlantic to move South so that when low pressure goes through at the weak point in the ridge, it does so over Northern France. We just need the Greenland High to put a bit of effort in to push south on the GFS.

The ECM is showing -5 uppers covering almost all the south coast, along with multiple channel lows, yet its not the best for snow?

If the GFS continues to backtrack then it's game on. The smaller models are awful, they just move away from whichever major model appears to be the sinking ship at the time.

Essex Weather Center on twitter keep updates on what it's showing. Thanks to Dan for the link. https://twitter.com/EssexWeather

True, still not happy about that though. Good to see the ECM going for the undercut though. I just hope some of the others who have recently sided with the GFS begin to pick up on the undercut.

We forgot MOGREPS and praised the ECM in December and we regretted it. MOGREPS is a huge one to lose to the milder side.

MOGREPS trending warmer from day 8... I wouldn't have minded a middle ground between the models, but it's going 80% towards the GFS instead of 50%.

No 96 hours away from 12z thursday is 12 monday, look at the date on the chart.

UKMO at t96 looking similar to the GFS, from what I can see there is a slight westward shift, a slightly wider atlantic ridge and the shortwave hasn't split into two.

Looks like it's bottled it again,t96 doesn't look convincing. Oh well, it's a definite improvement.

t72 looking promising... The low pressure to the west of Greenland hasn't elongated like the previous runs. It's stayed in a circular shape, giving the high pressure more room to work with for hopefully a push north later in the run.

"I am surprised the Met are so bullish. Most of the pros are still sitting on the fence. Look at GEM ens:" They have access to better models, and after what happened in December I think they'll be paying a bit more attention to the MOGREPS this time

Can't ignore the slight backtrack from the ECM. Yesterday the cold comfortably made it, today if a 200 mile shift North happens on the current forecast then all of the UK is mild. It was on the mild side of the ensembles though for the crucial time (t96-t144). UKMO is a strange one, the shortwave moves Northeast, but the high pressure makes it North too. No other model is going for this, got to say it looks great at t144. Would that be a possibility? The other models that have shown the shortwave moving northeast have then gone on to end any hope of cold.

It does seem very odd for it to be going against background signals so much. This could be because it's simply wrong or it's actually picked up on something. GFS has done both of these scenarios countless times in the past. We still have a big majority of the charts going for a colder outcome, with the very short range, high resolution charts saying yes to cold as well. As far as I'm aware it's just the JMA and GFS on the mild side.

Couple minutes ago you were saying GFS was right? At this stage as soon as we get cross-model agreement on what's going to happen early next week, whether it be mild or cold, it's almost certain to happen. Until then let's hope UKMO and ECM keep it up.

Guys the rest of the UKMO is out. It's beautiful

The UKMO and ECM have been just as consistent, they've been going for cold for days now.

Yeah that's a big issue, the North Pole just locks up again on our side on the GFS. Would be an absolute disaster for the rest of January. That's why it's such a confusing trend, all the background signals are screaming cold spilling from the North Pole yet GFS wants to lock it all up.