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Snowy Liverpool

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Everything posted by Snowy Liverpool

  1. Snowy Liverpool
    Does anyone know of temperature observation graphs for lower down in the stratosphere and maybe upper troposphere. CPC shows the temperature down to 70mb , but it would be good to have 100, 200, 500 etc.
  2. Snowy Liverpool
    I think the final frames of the GFS can be completely ignored seeing as they are going for a PV reformation over Greenland/Arctic Ocean.
  3. Snowy Liverpool
    That 2nd warming over Greenland/Canada keeps disappearing and reappearing, with the latest run showing a very weak warming. I never thought there would be so much uncertainty in a stratosphere forecast for something that's just 7-8 days away. At least the pressure charts at 10hpa still show that the weak warming will push that fragment of vortex away from East Canada/Greenland.
  4. Snowy Liverpool
    I'm pretty sure some minor warmings occurred in December 2009 and November 2010, like something similar to the start of December this winter.
  5. Snowy Liverpool
    GFS showing a 3rd warming over Canada in deep FI, at this rate the North Pole will be staying relatively warm for 3-4 weeks. Also showing the colder air going to the North Pacific, if the vortex can end up there and we get a deep low in that area we could set off another round of wave 1 activity. Just a concern about tropospheric impact of the SSW, the GFS continues to show low pressures running the show in that gap between scandinavia in Greenland, despite the split in the vortex down welling very smoothly from 10mb to 100mb. Kind of frustrating seeing very little on offer in terms of cold in FI GFS. Surely that's the last place we would expect to see low pressures in a couple of weeks time?
  6. Snowy Liverpool
    It's looking that way, but looking at that graph it seems the same thing happened early in December before the minor warming changed it towards the Pole. At least the strength of it away from the Pole is set to decrease rapidly.
  7. Snowy Liverpool
    It's very likely to happen as the stratosphere is nowhere near as variable as the troposphere, so is much easier to forecast. 7 days out (the time when the SSW is expected to happen) is still a very reliable time-frame for the stratosphere. At the moment zonal winds expected to just about still be positive at midday on the 4th of Jan, so I would say the SSW will happen on the 2nd half of the 4th of Jan or the 5th of Jan. The date has been pushed back very slightly, it's almost negligible.
  8. Snowy Liverpool
    You can't get excited about cold weather on this site, apparently excitement is the same thing as guaranteeing a record breaking cold spell for the UK. The simple fact of the matter is that almost all cold spells come from SSWs and it's rare to get a cold spell without an SSW. People have every reason to get their hopes up for an SSW, would you not get excited in a poker game if you got a card that turns your chances of winning from 10% to 70%? To associate every SSW with cold for the UK is naive and of course patience is needed to wait and see where the northern blocking develops in the troposphere before making any assumptions, but the simple fact is the chances of cold are much more favorable with an SSW than without one.
  9. Snowy Liverpool
    Anyway, just wanted to post that Cohen will be releasing a paper in January about tropospheric precursors to large AO events, sounds like it could be a very helpful read and it hopefully builds on the knowledge of existing known precursors. https://ams.confex.c...aper219017.html
  10. Snowy Liverpool
    Major SSW is looking likely, which will cause a displacement of the vortex. The vortex will then split several days after this as well though. Interesting strat temperature from the 12z today, going for a second warming, this time over Canada. The PV must be getting fed up of this now.
  11. Snowy Liverpool
    I'm not sure if this is a split or a displacement going on here, or is it possible to have both? With wave 1 hitting first, followed by a wave 2, the stratospheric pattern seems to reflect this with a displacement first and then a split.
  12. Snowy Liverpool
    Sorry If I'm getting this wrong I'm new to this, but the warming is originating and staying in Siberia, surely this is the last place we will see the vortex going? The biggest segment on our side of the Atlantic seems to be in the Mediterranean which can only be good.
  13. Snowy Liverpool
    Yes, so close but not yet!
  14. Snowy Liverpool
    A nice westward shift of the warming on the 12z, much closer to the North Pole instead of wasting away in Siberia.
  15. Snowy Liverpool
    There was a minor warming in mid-December and a major warming in late January
  16. Snowy Liverpool
    Can anyone post a link to the 10hpa stratosphere temperature forecasts from GFS that keep getting posted here?
  17. Snowy Liverpool
    "Sorry for asking but why is it? If wanting just cold then yes, but surely that would just be dry with there being no wind?" Kinks in the isobars like the ones that are showing in the UKMO usually suggest unstable airflow so it would probably be packed with showers or even organised bands of ppn. About the 12z, where has the PV gone? Seems to have dissapeared in this run.
  18. Snowy Liverpool
    Thanks Gael Force that's perfect
  19. Snowy Liverpool
    PV detaches from those much weaker LPs in the atlantic and we say hello to the Greenland High hopefully.
  20. Snowy Liverpool
    Crazy warm pool over Greenland on this run
  21. Snowy Liverpool
    Have you got a link to somewhere which has the temperature part of the criteria. I've read a lot of conflicting ones but in journals, "significantly higher than 10c" seems to be the favored one, though that's far too vague, it could be anything from 15 to 100.
  22. Snowy Liverpool
    I'm moving back to Liverpool from Leeds on Sunday, I think I'm going to cry.
  23. Snowy Liverpool
    Do the southerly winds and the resulting warm 850s over Greenland at t144 and especially t168 make it easier for hights to build there?
  24. Snowy Liverpool
    Met Office have confirmed a minor one has taken place. I think someone posted the link a couple pages back.
  25. Snowy Liverpool
    Very happy that PV moving + Greenland High starting to build is in the high res part. Hopefully it will become a trend that the other models start to pick up on.
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