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Snowy Liverpool

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Everything posted by Snowy Liverpool

  1. Snowy Liverpool
    Again though, this run shows us nothing without the other 21 members. If Ens mean is down on the 18z I'm happy.
  2. Snowy Liverpool
    Looks like GFS is saying no again. That position at t90is unsaveable.
  3. Snowy Liverpool
    Both the high pressure in the atlantic and the shortwave are further north. Which way will it go?
  4. Snowy Liverpool
    Sorry, but if a model has to be 24 hours out to make the right decision then it is absolutely useless. I've never come across a model changing its mind less than 72 hours away. 3 days is understandable, 1 day is just pathetic.
  5. Snowy Liverpool
    That I would think depends on how long the wrong one waits to change its tune. If for example the GFS waits until 24 hours away to change to cold then it should correctly lose a lot of respect. Though I doubt it will come to that, by Saturday we should know.
  6. Snowy Liverpool
    Putting a truckload of low pressures in the exact place where the vortex has split would suggest that it is.
  7. Snowy Liverpool
    NOGAPS looks good, we just have to win this lottery another 40 times and the cold will be here
  8. Snowy Liverpool
    Agreed, but there's a bit of a difference between having a tough time and placing the vortex in exactly the place it's least likely to be (what 18z is doing). I guess I can't criticise it until ensembles come out, but I'd be surprised if it wasn't one of the milder or maybe even the mildest member from 144-192.
  9. Snowy Liverpool
    To be fair as much as I hate the GFS at the moment it is the best at picking up trends. It picked up this ridge of high pressure to our North about 10 days beforehand.
  10. Snowy Liverpool
    Dan where do you get the MOGREPS data from? It's the one I trust the most after it got December spot on.
  11. Snowy Liverpool
    But it had a lot of support from it's ensemble members for this weekend. It's almost on it's own with this ridiculous idea to push the shortwave North despite the jet going south. As long as the vast majority of the ensembles keep things cold (as they are currently doing), the operational can do whatever it wants.
  12. Snowy Liverpool
    Greenland closed off at t114, I believe that's a new record. That's got to be the worst run so far.
  13. Snowy Liverpool
    Good consistency from the ECM, similar to the 00z.
  14. Snowy Liverpool
    It's to the east of Iceland on the ECM, west of Iceland on the GFS. Imo the most important thing for cold is the speed of that shortwave, and it's looking quicker on ECM. Edit: Also just noticed that the GFS shortwave has a supporting one to it's northeast which is probably why it ended up moving Northeast.
  15. Snowy Liverpool
    Very minor warmings in November 2010 prevented the vortex from properly forming. I'm pretty sure there was an SSW in winter of 2009/10 in January.
  16. Snowy Liverpool
    May I ask what has been causing the sudden ridge of high pressure almost completely stopping the jet in its tracks? Would be very surprised if it isn't at least an indirect affect of the SSW.
  17. Snowy Liverpool
    As long as the ensembles say otherwise, I'm not concerned. For example the ensembles were actually warmer on the 18z run yesterday than the 06z run today, yet we went crazy over the 18z because of 1 member and were disappointed by the 06z because of 1 member. Far too much importance is placed on the operational at t96+
  18. Snowy Liverpool
    Anyone else annoyed that we are the block that allows Spain and North Africa to get snow on the 12z lol. Absolutely dreadful run long term, improvement for the weekend though.
  19. Snowy Liverpool
    Could the high pressure be strong enough to stop those 2 lows from linking?
  20. Snowy Liverpool
    Even if it does fail later, some positive news - at t96-120 the lows in the Atlantic are much better alligned (vertical instead of diagonal on the 06z), suggests high pressure standing its ground a bit more.
  21. Snowy Liverpool
    GFS going shortwave crazy again... That area under Southern Greenland is the ultimate high pressure repellent, it's been a conveyer belt for shortwaves all winter.
  22. Snowy Liverpool
    And now GFS does what it does best and revert to zonal when it doesn't know what's going on. I'm pretty sure that will be one of the milder ensembles at t144 onwards.
  23. Snowy Liverpool
    The PNA is starting to get a few members on the positive side now, and in the positive phase we see lower pressure over the North Pacific and Aleutian Islands. This tends to be a precursor for increased stratopheric wave-1 activity. I have no idea how reliable wave amplitude forecasts are, but ECM is going to a big rise in wave-1 in 7-10 days:
  24. Snowy Liverpool
    Yes those are both great thanks
  25. Snowy Liverpool
    Thanks, but I'm looking for lower than 70mb
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