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Snowy Liverpool

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Everything posted by Snowy Liverpool

  1. Snowy Liverpool
    It's suddenly picked up here, some decent sized flakes too
  2. Snowy Liverpool
    I'm guessing this system is still a long way from hitting peak intensity? It's starting to weaken inland.
  3. Snowy Liverpool
    If this is even half the event of December 1st 2010, I'll be very happy, that was the best convection event I can remember.
  4. Snowy Liverpool
    Think I might be just too far west here in leeds city center for the heaviest stuff, but still those tiny powder flakes are coming down nicely. A good 5-6cm when I went to Hyde Park earlier.
  5. Snowy Liverpool
    Good agreement on the AO to shoot up in around 7-10 days. Statosphere forecasts also suggest the polar stratosphere to cool down to average for this time of year. I always thought there was a considerable lag phase between the two events, but the AO at tropospheric level seems to be following the stratospheric conditions at a lag phase of just a few days and it's beginning to show in the models e.g. some going for a breakdown of cold as early as 6-7 days away. Is it really going to be this quick?
  6. Snowy Liverpool
    Purple circle over Leeds, perfect
  7. Snowy Liverpool
    Hi Ian, so if I'm reading this correct should the GFS and NAE precipitation forecasts be treated with a lot of skepticism? Where is the eastern extent of the front according to your models?
  8. Snowy Liverpool
    A nice little patch of heavier snow approaching Leeds+Bradford now.
  9. Snowy Liverpool
    Still nothing here in Leeds city center, or if there is it can't be seen even with lampposts.
  10. Snowy Liverpool
    The main band appears to be developing over the Irish Sea, and it's more in line with the forecasts in terms of timing. Let's hope it makes a better attempt at crossing the Pennines than the other one that failed miserably.
  11. Snowy Liverpool
    Pennines usually do the opposite to fronts unfortunately.
  12. Snowy Liverpool
    Eastward shift as early as t6. Good news for the west, but absolutely ridiculous how little accuracy the models have had recently.
  13. Snowy Liverpool
    -5 850hpa temps have been pushed further southeast again. Even more marginal now.
  14. Snowy Liverpool
    Surely the other 90% of the parameters being fine away from the southwest cancels that out by a fair amount?
  15. Snowy Liverpool
    UKMO says yes to the undercut as well. Great result tonight!
  16. Snowy Liverpool
    Slight eastward shift on this one, might affect the snow chances on Monday. Shortwave is further south though.
  17. Snowy Liverpool
    I still think the models are overdoing any low pressures directly to our North. I know the topospheric vortex only follows a similar, not exact path to the stratospheric vortex, but too many runs have been very keen in closing the area to our North off with lows.
  18. Snowy Liverpool
    A bit of a worry that ECM and GFS have no heights over Greenland after the shortwave drama is sorted. Still that's miles in FI and is not worth anything as it's so likely to change.
  19. Snowy Liverpool
    This could be another Jan5th 2010, loving the orientation of the fronts, especially the 2nd one.
  20. Snowy Liverpool
    Again we have that pesky shortwave from the low to the west of Greenland trying to move to Iceland and link up above us rather than below. Just as we sort one shortwave problem out another one pops up.
  21. Snowy Liverpool
    That shortwave is definitely a bit more south than on the 06z. Now it just depends on where the Atlantic low and the shortwave link up.
  22. Snowy Liverpool
    3.30pm, key time will be 72-120 imo which will be around 3.50-4.10pm, to see if the shortwave moves southeast and to see if we get an undercut.
  23. Snowy Liverpool
    Poleward flux forecast looking great today, almost there.
  24. Snowy Liverpool
    Ah UKMO giving us problems now, not too keen on an undercut. We're not going to get cross-model agreement on this until t00 are we?
  25. Snowy Liverpool
    These shortwave problems are 5-6 days out to be fair. ECM and UKMO have them scattered all over the place as well.
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