[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards]

3 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

We will be terribly unlucky if we don't get a decent cold spell this winter. Terribly!

yep agree but i can honestly see were MS is coming from too

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And the met office outlook changes again (just like the wind) though this time its an upgrade. Honestly nobody has a clue whats going to happen so clearly  i would look no further than 4 days ahead at most 

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7 minutes ago, booferking said:

Anything not seen anything white fall from the sky in nearly a year Tuesday next week best chance of proper snow but outside chance of snow shower & frontal snow Friday.

At least its a chance so better than nothing 

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3 minutes ago, booferking said:

Along with teleconnection signals cant be used for are small part of the world stick to inside 5 day forecasts and you wont be to displeased.

Chasing MJO cycles since November..

Exactly

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17 minutes ago, booferking said:

Any chance of having any meaningless snow is next Tuesday i think.

Worst winter i can remember in a long long time and doesnt look like getting better anytime soon. LRF is literally impossible

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41 minutes ago, booferking said:

Halfway house and we are stuck in the middle of it haha.

We could still do well out of it. If it doesnt show cold and snow in southern england thr models are woeful usually 

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dont go into the mod thread. Easterly gone and they are in meltdown. EC has egg on its face. Blah blah blah . Still not as bad for us but not great either 

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Just now, reef said:

Yes, they did. We have rules on no politics discussion so any posts on such matters will go without warning.

Thank god for that 

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37 minutes ago, Weegaz said:

Still some possibilities to get a bit of snow within the next 7 days

The GFS has been slated quite a bit in the MOD thread but has any model done well? MetO don’t even have a clue at the minute

IMO the gfs has modelled nearer term prospects quite well

Totally agree with this statement. GFS has been better than other models as it’s constantly shown up dross while the others have been showing great charts then the nearer it gets its back to day ten again. I don’t understand why it’s getting slated as it’s vern nearer the mark. 

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42 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

At day 9, tonight's GFS has done away with the polar North Westerly blast from Day 10 yesterday and replaced it with a cold but boring high pressure....

 

 

 

It’s unreal.  

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We will see. Rain sleet or snow it is. That’s for sure. 

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8 minutes ago, StormyWeather28 said:

Well we'll agree to disagree then. First part sleet snow spreading SE with frost following and cold. Cold continuing through midweek, snow especially likely in the northern half. Cold conditions likely to remain until the end of the period which is the 29th

UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019:

Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast. Some light rain or sleet is possible in the southwest at first; then a band of rain, sleet and snow is likely to spread across the northwest later, moving erratically southeast. Overnight frost and freezing fog patches are likely overnight into Monday. Cold weather is likely to continue through mid-week, remaining unsettled and at times windy with fronts spreading southeast across the UK bringing rain, sleet and snow. Snow is most likely over north and eastern areas and over high ground. Similar cold conditions are likely to remain in place until the end of the period, interspersed with brighter showery spells, although these could also be wintry. Overnight frosts will remain likely.

Second part mentions it will be cold with frost and snow especially higher ground in North but increasingly to lower levels

UK Outlook for Wednesday 30 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 13 Feb 2019:

Cold but changeable conditions will be in place at the start of the extended outlook with spells of strong winds and rain, turning to snow at times. Overnight frosts are likely and snow, mainly over higher ground in the north, but with an increased risk to lower levels. The details of any disruptive snow remains uncertain. Milder, wetter interludes are possible, most likely in the south but with these comes an increased risk of snow and ice further north.

 

Honestly do not get the over the top reactions. It's not like there going for a mild Atlantic dominated pattern and it's pretty much the same as yesterday just different wording. Cold and snow is used throughout. The outlook accuracy is always poor imo, changes alot because accuracy out to 30 days is poor. 

 

I guess people are just fed up with the blandness 

It states rain , sleet and snow  so you missed that bit out so we could easily get rain too 

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4 minutes ago, booferking said:

And for the same reason i wouldn't get to hung up if it was saying snow and blizzard conditions works both ways until the models are showing me snow at reliable time frame the rollercoaster party goes on. 

Totally agree 

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10 minutes ago, booferking said:

And the met update will change again not so sure why all so hung up on it changes as much as the cannon folder global forecasting system (GFS).

Well we all love it when it gives an upgrade so we have to comment when it’s a downgrade too but of course it could change 

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6 minutes ago, StormyWeather28 said:

Are you guys talking about the Met office 30 day outlook? If so I'm lost it looks practically the same. 

It’s complety different wording from yest. 

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21 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Well, it's just less than likely as only 40%!

As disappointing as the Met Office update is, I think there may be more colder North Westerly types so till chances of snow at month end/into February.

I think the ship may be starting to sail on a widespread and longer lasting cold snowy spell though. 

 

Yep hopefully still get a bit of snow but I think cold spell is dead and buried. Will certainly be nowhere near as good as last winter. 

Word from work after met office weekly meeting is risk of cold end of January into early Feb had gone from high risk to average risk now. So that’s a big step down from them too. They said there could be the odd snowfall but nothing crippling to affect the airport. However confidence was low and it could very easily upgrade again 

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25 minutes ago, Sparky72 said:

Yip!

maybe it was all a big conspiracy by all the supermarkets to try and get rid of their over stock in salt and antifreeze!

It’s what I expected as I couldn’t get excited about this supposed cold spell. GFS has never been on board. That for me was the killer blow. 

Look when I’m stating it’s a big downgrade I’m talking in generally sense for all uk and Ireland but the update is not bad for us here compared to southern UK  and we could do extremely well but it’s certainly a downgrade in update from met office for southern uk and when that starts happening I always get wary that cold may start moving north of us. But I wouldn’t  be surprised for more downgrades in the days ahead but hope we can stay north enough for cold weather  

 

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

You can just tell by the modelling with that PV - it wont be shifted and will just mean mid latt highs - garbage slush fest 2 inches events don't float my boat.

100% agree. Why are people trying to sugar coat it. It’s a woeful update 

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

How is it game over 

Because that update is a huge downgrade from yesterday. That’s just normal winter fair. Possible rain, sleet snow mainly high ground but possible Low ground. Gone is cold or very cold weather expected along with enhanced risk of frost and snow. It’s miles different and a shocking update for the south. The north maybe a bit of snow but more so on hills. 

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

It’s why I literally for for years Have paid no attention to their long range forecasts. They change with the wind and are utterly pointless. Ok for the north but a shocking update for the south. 

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There you go the dreaded met office update. Game over now in my eyes. That is a huge downgrade and to me what I have been expecting as I just couldn’t buy Into this big freeze scenario. Still chance for snow but that’s a very poor update. 

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2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Well, even the ECM would be longer than 10 days, probably day 14 before the snow arrived.

The models and met office have been abysmal in forecasting this supposed cold spell. Always in never never land. Honestly think this may never happen. 

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ECM great rest pretty poor. Nothing out of the ordinary weather wise so all pretty meow! WAit goes on, and on and on and on. Usual 10 days. 

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Just now, Bottled Snow said:

If you go to the model tweet thread Booferking you will see that Ian Ferguson of UK MET rubbished that tweet from Essex Weather....all still good in the hood 

Good lord I don’t know what to believe then in that case. I give up. Good fun this though 

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2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Afraid not below is last forecast from GloSea5 seen on Twitter.

New week same old uncertainty with the weather models. Colder conditions arrive late this week with increasing wintry shower risk for much of UK by weekend. Slight shift on GloSea5 (seasonal model) today of average or slightly above temps for February and March.

Don’t like sound of that.! Ten days to save this woeful winter then. Not looking good then. Ah well always next year. But I hope it’s without this hyped SSW. Load of tosh.