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Gfs to come in line next 24hrs. Can’t go on showing this rubbish! Or can it ? Time will tell. But something gotta give. 

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29 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

We're looking at day ten again for something a bit more snowy and widespread, this time from the North West., lets see if its at day 9 tomorrow.

Always day 10. Never close. Keeps going soon be spring. Surely luck will change soon 

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This is why I havnt bought into all this hype. Never once hardly has the indication of proper cold really got into the reliable timeframe and any snow was knife edge. I will be astounded if the met long range for last week off January is right. The borefest and freakish mild continues. Utterly shocking winter.  Everybody is stating the GFS is a very poor model but it has never really modelled this cold weather yet. Certainly not in the reliable 5-6 day range. Other models have but it hasn’t happened or is constantly watered down nearer the time. Maybe gfs is better than  people are giving it credit at mo. Look I hope I’m wrong and the signs constantly look good for last 3rd of January but the models seriously need to start showing it constantly and soon as the weeks do go by quickly. Here’s hoping for better runs in the reliable shortly. 

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4 hours ago, Sperrin said:

We're in a delicate place imo. We're not as cold as Britain but we're much more likely to get moisture off the Atlantic, hence greater snow risk. If the colder air can move slightly further west we could be in Jackpot land. 

All will be revealed as the week progresses. At least we're in the game!!

Neiller, you remind me of this character from Fr Ted. Always looking for the pessimistic angle. Think positive and positive things will happen

 

. I’m just not blown away by snow chances. Too marginal in my eyes but yes of course it could change this week as we get nearer the time and I hope it does 

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3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

That is just not true. 

Anyway,  great model runs overnight and first snow symbols have appeared on automated met forecasts. 

Now that the arrival of the cold air from Wednesday is guaranteed we should continue to see upgrades on the output .

Hope ur right. 

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When they are happy it must mean an easterly is about. 

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And the wait goes while USA goes into the freezer which is never good for UK/Ireland cold. Jet will fire up and atlantic will awaken which i fear will reduce our chances of cold weather dramatically though hope im wrong here, 

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Models def not as good as yest. This is far far from a fine deal. Long long way to go in my eyes. 

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I’m still not overly convinced by this   Yes there may be a wee bit of snow but I can’t see anything substantial just yet. End of next week just looks very dicey snow wise with a mix of everything and beyond that is way up in the air still I think. But hopefully it will all come together but I have my doubts. 

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Something for the snow starved Irish to keep an eye on for the North / NE weds Eve

@Sperrin

 

Fingers crossed Steve. 

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Been busy all day. We still getting snow and cold. 

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4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Plenty snow opportunities on the GFS 6z and that's including taking its progressive bias into account!

SWEET

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I'm working on the Reverse Psychology theory MS!

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Still cant see where this prolonged cold is coming from.

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5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Well, the GFS couldn't be more different. Flat as a pancake.

the models are comical but good for a laugh so god knows what will happen though GFS could be right 

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6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Big upgrade on the Met Office T+144. Cold Northerly in bound on Wednesday of next week.

be nice but prob gone in morn 

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every day that passes is still generally day 10 for bitter cold. Im far from convinced by all this to be honest, 

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Yep looks good update from meto for us in north uk and ireland. Cold looks like it’s coming. 

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3 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Excellent Met Office update with the arrival of the colder condition now appearing on there two weekly update as opposed to the monthly. 

The latest weather update for Farmers in Ireland has today updated with predictions of the colder weather arriving around the 20th and the colder than average conditions expected to continue through to May!!

I wonder if Neiller has any inside information from the Airport.

Been off last 5 five days as I worked basically all xmas and new year and not back until thurs but will know something then. Normal weekly update with MO usually a Friday but guy in work has told me all guys working on airfield on winter maintenance etc for runway and apron treatment have all been called in for updated training on all equipment for expected cold weather next couple of weeks. Will keep you posted. 

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It is MS. And what are we STILL all doing! WAITING

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

4 minutes ago, Snowycat said:

Oh dear.  Having worked most of my life for public facing services, I really do understand how cautious (particularly in these modern days) one has to be to avoid any possible criticism or backlash I really do, however, there must be some sore bottoms at the met with all the fence sitting.  Every base is covered in that summary other than hot sunny weather - rain, wind, snow, frost, fog, and mild weather   I realise fhey can only forecast what they think they can see and if its not clear to them I see the issue but why they bother with these forecasts I'll never know.

Could not agree more. They are utterly pointless. Basically it may do anything  is what they are saying

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10 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Looks much the same to me. Certainly the second half of the month will be more interesting than first six weeks of Winter.

Gone is possible snow to lower levels in north at times to be replaced by snow on hills. That’s a downgrade to me. Granted they still say colder start of Month in feb with snow possible but it’s constantly being pushed back. 

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Another poor metro update. Looks like feb now. Utterly comical getting this along with their extended forecasting it has to be said. 

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22 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I would rather have them on board than not though.

Tamara PM'd me and seems to indicate the GWO will be more favourable again later in the month and early February. At least from the weekend into next week we might get some actual 'weather' rather than this endless cloudy benign mild muck. 

Fingers crossed. I’m just not convinced. It’s always being put back but hopefully some cold zonality soon. 

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Cannot believe how mild it is out there. No sign of anything interesting in the next couple of weeks. No doubt we are looking to February now before anything happens.

It’s s joke. Also expect met office outlook to change to early Feb, then mid Feb, then late Feb then spring next year! Honestly I never pay much attention to their long range anyway. Changes with the wind generally. They are basically basing their forecast on this SSW which is hit and miss. I could forecast possible cold or maybe not from that.