SouthPennine88
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Posts posted by SouthPennine88
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Maybe 6'c isn't mild but we have been climbing steadily all day and now stand at 10.2'c which for the time of year and at this part of the day I would say is heading towards exceptional.
To put it into perspective, IMBY we had 10 days in October and 25 in November which failed to reach these dizzy heights so even though it's one of my most hated words in weather talk, I must admit that this is certainly mild.
Hopefully it will be a word used much less as we head through Christmas and temperatures take a bit of a fall.
I'd hope so!
I would say between 26th-28th we won't be using the word mild that much, perhaps the word cool. As for 28th onwards, it looks like a return to mild and wet although that won't matter for me since I will be up in the Alpes until 6th Jan
Back here though, ECM showed a little turn for a bit of cooler weather in the first few days of the new year though, most likely won't materialize though judging by the lack of support from other models.
The model watch from around the 27th onwards might be much more interesting as by then we will be watching the outputs up to around the 10th January, and if we want a notable colder spell in January, in my opinion we need to be seeing the signs very early on. (I mention 10th January because a lot of people are hinting cooler conditions as we progress through the second week).
To put it in another way, if in a weeks time or so (New Years Eve), there is nothing cold showing on the outputs, then we'd probably have to rule out anything cold happening before Mid Month, I say this because the Atlantic will just keep eating away. A pattern change is always possible though
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So winters over, there's absolutely no hope AT ALL. Well that's what you'd believe reading posts on here. I won't any more in fear of getting into trouble but I think you get the general gist.
The last few posts certainly haven't said it's over.
I for one perhaps would be a little surprised if we go on and receive a huge pattern change to cold in January (the second week of January is being talked about a lot), but then again I'd say it's almost impossible for us not to get something during the rest of this Winter, whether it be February 2009, February/March 2005 or January 1983. (Or 1946/47. You know I had to say that)
At the moment though, nothing to note today except just rain rain and rain and mild mild mild, although perhaps better fortunes for New year on the ECM (but I won't be in this country for that time)
People always go on and talk about FI being pointless and some people sometimes dis regard it, but to be honest if the vast majority of models point to the same conditions in FI, you can't really argue against it.
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Yeah, Jan does seem to be the mildest, least snowiest month, with Feb being snowier but springlike towards the end
I would say Cold Winters usually like to bring in the Spring like weather earlier (especially when the colder weather occurs in November/December/January, but it all depends on when the cold actually arrives ... as I say in my last post, a fair few typical 1990's/2000's Winters did like colder weather at the end of Feb/Mid Feb (2007 ... 2006 and 2005 in particular, 2004, 2002).
It does actually involve a bit of natural occurrence to be honest, for example, if we have early notable cold, Spring likes to arrive early (Feb/March), but if we have early mildish weather, Spring likes to arrive in late (March April).
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Talk about January seeing it's very low amount of severe cold especially in the second half, that would be very true.
January 2012:Milder than average
January 2011: Slightly cooler than average but no severe cold
2009: trended slightly cooler all the way through with some notable bursts in the North but non eventful in the South
2008: Mild
2007: Mostly mild, brief cold Midlands Northwards 21/22nd
2006: Average but nothing to note
2005: nothing
2004: bit like 2009
2003: nothing
2002: nothing
February however has always seen a more traditional colder theme (especially during Milder than average Winters, Feb is usually the exception)
2012: Colder first half
2009: Cold first half
2008: Little cold spell especially North 1/2nd
2007: A bit of a decent spell for some around mid month
2006: End of Feb/March
2005: End of Feb/March
2004: End of Feb
To be honest we are due a cold January really, although I wouldn't be surprised if we get the most coldest weather this Winter in feb.
In terms of the models, we probably aren't in for anything in the first few days/week of January but continued interest of cold as we progress through.
Anything, please, other than this horrible model watching at the moment! Rain,Rain,Rain ...
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Hi all a very mild day today temp 6c and raining i even went out without a coat..well only to get in the car.looks like a rainy christmas nevermind.
Do you seriously consider 6'C very mild?! I don't!
Very mild weather of temperatures 10+ looks possible some time in the next two weeks.
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Hopefully the conditions in Val d'Isere will be up to scratch for my visit from 30th Dec to 7th Jan ... although knowing me it will be just my luck for me to be in the Alpes whilst the UK is in severe cold and snow
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He might very well have the last laugh, but yes, at the moment unless there's some drastic turnaround it looks like he's going to be £100 down.
Why?
the models cannot sort out T96 at the momemt,in weather terms along way to go until Xmas Day.
C.S
In terms of straw clutching ... the models on Thursday 6th of December 2012 showed an absolute snow and cold fest for the last few days ... however on Friday 7th December it was all different. (So a model flip 7 days before the event).
To carry on with this theory then ... we have until Tuesday 18th of December for the models to flip for a very cold Christmas Day XD
In all fairness though ... of course this won't happen and at the moment I expect a Christmas day which will feature overall average temperatures for this time of year (Max 6-9 Low 3-0'C).
This on the back of a cooler 22nd-24th December with slightly cooler than average temps.
No snow or anything like that in the picture though even during the possible cooler period ... any hunt for cold looks to be set for the 25th-31st now, or more still (judging by a rather upbeat Strat thread today), 10th January onwards approx.
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The thing is no amount of positivity or wishful thinking will change the situation. The weather isn't sentient. Take a far more realistic approach (expect nothing) and you won't end up crushed time and time again when things (almost inevitably) go wrong!
I've learned the hard way over the years!
I don't like wishful thinking and share your view, but to be honest, no comments tonight have consisted of wishful thinking.
I think those members who have put forward the idea of perhaps cooler weather returning in around a weeks time have been very clear on the fact they are hugely uncertain and by no means are the models (certainly the op's) have shown a huge commitment to cold.
All we have done so far in terms of talking about cold is picked out bits and pieces that would otherwise indicate we are in for a perhaps slightly cooler conditions in the timeframe, none of us have really said a notable cold period is arriving.
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GFS FI is awful locally but hemispherically there is PV disruption and movement of PV to Russia.
I think we need to step far back and start looking at things from Day 10-20 and mark the period from now to Christmas off our cold list.
I would want to hold in my thoughts until perhaps Sunday before accepting we have a no cold period coming up.
The reason I say this is that there is potential out there to say a brief northerly may salvage out the blue as we have seen before in the past ... although having said that, it's most probably going to just become a piece of history in a few days and be swept up by the relatively strong atlantic.
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And if output carries on as is then its quite possible some will wake up Xmas day to spring like weather or at least temperatures anyway.
Well it doesn't matter about the 25th does it
:If we accept we won't get snow on that day or week or half of the month ... then we'll be alright.
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Yes nick I couldn't agree more, time to put this horrible episode behind us and move on, the models show mediocre fayre for the next 2 weeks plus and now i'm concerned about longer range prospects into the new year and beyond, time to wipe the slate clean and start again I think.
As I did say, there's no reason to worry about the new year and beyond just yet because that is over a month away and the models only go out to two weeks.
Without a doubt we will see a change in the output within that period.
A day of mild outputs and you'd thing Spring arrives on Friday, and not day 14 of the Winter
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Getting close to the new year now from the gfs, good riddance to that pesky russian high, it was useless.
Ahh I see ... perhaps a Russian High isn't the most trustworthy of delivering cold. (although temperatures didn't get above -1 here today).
I always look for Greenland blocking for cold spells ... although of course this isn't evident within range just yet!
I shall not be fooled though ... if we kept assuming that the mild would continue after the model runs have ended (in this instance, up until new year), then we are in other words never ever going to see an end to the average/mild output are we?!
It's always going to change sometime
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Yes the models are flipping us back into normal uk weather following the awful handling of the siberian high and all the other pieces of the jigsaw it was putting together for a prolonged cold outlook that has now gone up in smoke. We are now reduced to scratching around in FI for some air cool enough to bring a bit of wet snow to the scottish mountains. The ecm and gfs 12z show a mostly average to mild outlook until the christmas holidays, maybe until the new year even..oh dear.
I didn't think the models went as far as the new year yet or am I mistaken?
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Very cold here today, colder than this day in 2010 astonishingly...
Very rainy on Friday ... although temperatures aren't going above average for a long time yet.
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I believe this is what's being referred to...
Ahhhh, I missed that chart ... of course ... the met office Winter forecast.
That's the one.
Wait, did someone seriously think that chart was a winter forecast?
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And the silence on here tonight from the big guns is a concern too
This is a thread for model discussion ...
And it is quite clear that there is no widespread cold on the horizon in the length of the model runs ...
That perhaps explains why there is nothing to really report here tonight.
As for this seemingly mysterious forecast 'update' from the MO showing an above average Winter, please could you provide a link?
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Rest of the winter too! What they have seen to suddenly turn the winter into an above average one is a concern.
Where are people getting this information from?
need a link
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Topplers may be a waste for you, but they can be fantastic here. Bring it on.
Also looking to get my life back now after some painful model watching. Not looking good for the beast, so will be looking to the North west for some pressure rises.
A nice toppler would do just nicely for Northern and Eastern areas ... I think they are underrated though because they usually bring snowfall but just don't last very long.
Hopeful of one around 21-26th (somewhere in that period).
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2007
2008
Thanks for that
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TBH I'd quite happily take a toppler with Nw'ly winds feeding showers down through the Cheshire gap at this moment in time. Something like Dec '04. That's how desperate I am for some snow!
Well if you're so desparate, don't talk it away in the model thread!
Heheh I'm only joking ...
I would be very happy with a nice little Northernly here, commonly they bring a sweet couple of days with temperatures 0-1'C in the day and pretty low at night ...
Usually they bring a nice covering of 5-10cm lasting 2 or 3 days.
May seem an odd question ... but am I right in saying January 21/22nd 2007 and February 1/2nd 2008 where as a result of northerlies?
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As has been said,an easterly is good for oldham rochdale and places in the east of the region in the foothills of the pennines but the showers tend to lose their fizz as they move east.The NWest is just about the dogs dinner for snow though, a polar northwesterly is our best bet but they are as rare as hens teeth,id hazard a guess somewhere like liverpool is on a par with cornwall as far as snow levels are concerned.
February 2009 is a near perfect example of this scenario;
I think here we got around 20-30cm which lasted with no thaw for 2-3 weeks.
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0'C here on my thermometer, and with completely clear skies all night I'm hopeful for a nice frost tomorrow morning.
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3'C and overcast, 0'C at the dead of night but unfortunately the clouds won't clear and it is looking most likely frost free.
Next below freezing night probably Sunday for most, if not Monday
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I really cannot see too many flaws at all in tonight's fax, it looks very good especially for the North and East ... strong and bold ... fax is a gooden
Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Nah, you'd be wrong about that .. it's just the cooler air will be virtually non existent South of the Midlands