SouthPennine88
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Posts posted by SouthPennine88
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1.9'C with sleet falling now.
Looks to stay steady throughout the night ... snow is out of question
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Still, it's impossible to get PPN just on the East coast for 5 days and NOTHING anywhere else.It is possible SP, because there pressure is not low enough close to the UK and there is nothing to drive showers very far inland. I've run through many classic easterlies on the archive charts and none of them had such a slack flow as being progged by the models for next week.
Think about it.
Virtually impossible.
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Some astonishing runs all over the board then for next week.
Getting rather exciting now!
Some of these charts showing up are amazing, virtually no flaws.
Odds on!
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2'C with sudden hail shower
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Thank goodness for that, someone with brains!agree the 500mb flatter to deceive, where is the strong windflow for next wed and thur? some places might get something on tues when the flow is stronger, as for next weekend im not going to speculate on that right now, quite often these lows end up further south and we end up staying cold and dry.
I can also say this ...
I'm 80% certain that, from Monday - Friday next week, on average (for the effected areas of the UK), there will be more dry than PPN.
But January Snowstorms though, think about it ... we are potentially under the influence of bitterly cold temperatures next week Monday to Friday (more so Tuesday - Thursday) ... which is equivalent to 5 days ... How ON EARTH are we going to get PPN JUST on the coasts?
It's completely impossible!
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Well, that did keep him quiet.
Anyone new on here and not good with weather forecasting or model reading, I can promise you 99% that IF we get an Easterly/N Easterly next week, it would be virtually impossible to get Precipitation (most likely snow) just on the coasts.
It's probably never ever happened before to have PPN just on the coasts.
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So you're uncertain about next week but extremely certain about the week after next week?I was one of the first to say last week that the failed Easterly may not happen.
Guess what ? It didn't happen.
Next week will be bitterly cold but dry away from favoured coasts.
That's my opinion so rather than jump down my throat lets wait and see what does happen?!
I also think that the breakdown is going to happen Sat week
Some dont agree so can we wait and see what happens there too.
EDIT - COLD!! And yes in the meantime we can all have fun building
frostmensnowmenI can guarantee you 99% that snow will fall away from the coast next week.
How much are you betting?
If I was you, I would just hide and stop commenting since next week we have potentially an Easterly that could bring heavy distruptive snowfall to large parts of the United Kingdom and Ireland. As for next weekend, it is impossible for snow and cold to last for ever, so before you jump on our throats telling us the Atlantic arrives next weekend, I think you should know that absolutely none of us are bothered about that whatsoever.
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I also find it rather peculiar how you can be so confident when only 'several' charts are showing this ...
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No, I never mentioned a word about PPN or Sunday next week, I mentioned whether you could show me a mild chart or not and you seem to have failed to do that.No, but I could show you several that mean ppn will be limited to exposed coasts
Also, I could show you several that show the atlantic coming back over ALL of the UK by Sunday week
It would be virtually impossible not to see PPN (snow) next week in over half of the UK.
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YeahYou really missed the point there didn't you.
I won't delete it though just for the sake of me showing my idiot style personality. ...
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Isn't that a bit offensive?Great status by Bishop Brennan. 'What this forum needs is another 88/89 style winter, to dampen the expectations of certain posters'
I would genuinely love this to happen just to teach some of the idiots on this a forum a cold hard (or should I say warm mucky) lesson
And should you be saying that when some of the most memorable charts are currently trending?
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Is it possible if you could show me a chart that shows mild weather from Monday-Friday next week?Indeed, any comment that suggests it's not going to stay cold with blizzards for an eternity is truly absurd.
The 240hrs shows the atlantic trying to gain control ( it doesn't show cold so no comment please)
FI is only worthy of comment if it shows cold
And of course the Meto are just being coy by sitting on the fence.
Really there busy writing 8 foot snowdrift warnings for next week
Oh and I wrote a sentence without saying COLD so forgive me
Lol - rant over!
Oh and the ECM mean also shows the atlantic gaining control so sshhhh, keep that one quiet!
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Is there anything at Scouthead as well do you know?
Not too sure ...
I believe there is a cover in Denshaw (village center and of course the moors)
Don't know about Scouthead but I'm guessing sleet/wet snow up there.
Here we have rain/sleet
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A rather beyond belief covering up Standedge (A62) tonight ...
Sleet/rain 1 mile away in Diggle.
Nothing like starting off a Winter with a nice cover on the white Pennine Hills
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Well the ECM looks less colder the yesterdays but a whole lot more snowier in a balanced perspective!
Well it was never going to go colder
Not really a case of less cold today, more in the way of the same I think today
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I did, because I think if we get to the ECM position at T144 it will be unlikely to evolve in the way that it ends up doing. But we have to accept that both of the big models want to crank up the Atlantic later on.
Certainly something to look out for over the next few days, but I wouldn't be bothering about 10-14 days away given what we could get after day 4 or so!
240 seems to show the Atlantic back off a little again
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http://www.metoffice...recast/?tab=map
Turns to rain according to this, upgrade for us in the fact that there is the heavy snow sybol over us for longer that previous.
Let's hope the next update postpones the rain even further by another 3 hours ... although this wouldn't be possible since the temperatures would have lowered again by then
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Still snow forecast for much of the am and pm for me before turning to rain in the late afternoon (Met Office), but this seemingly conflicts with their own weather forecast map that seemingly suggests no rain, just snow.
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Snow forecast here tomorrow before turning to sleet then rain (MO)
Liking the night time lows though
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Getting increasingly excited for tomorrow.
At the moment it's just bitterly cold at 0'C
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Yes, i was in Salford 09/10 and here 10/11, wish i could have swapped because although 09/10 was still my best since 95/96, it was so much more in Saddleworth, whereas Dec 10 was not really different in Manchester to Saddleworth apart from being much colder in Saddleworth.
true, although its really thin, not sure much intensification will occur but you never know i suppose.
You're very right about that, I must remember December 2010 was very dry and I remember December 2009 being very very wet (of course, the wet was all pretty much snow).
In fact, to put it in perspective, Thursday 17th (2009), 18th, 19th, 20th, 22nd, 24th, and 25th all had snow recorded with the 17th (Thursday evening), 19th (Saturday evening, night), 21st (Sunday, daytime) and 22nd (Tuesday, morning) all recording some notable extremes of snowfall lasting hours.
On the other hand, January 2010 (too my very little knowledge ... I have all but forgotten about this cold snap now) saw something like overnight snow on 30th November (2010) and morning/early afternoon snow on something like 2nd December ... other than the light snow around mid month there was nothing.
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Caught up now, judging by the Meto PPN forecast, i doubt we will see anything once that little band has cleared, gonna get up for cricket anyway so i will be up if there is.
It all depends on what that little band can do though.
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True, see what it shows in the next. 72hrs! Hopefully 2010 repeat in the terms of snow
IMO, for us in Oldham, December 2009 and January 2010 were a thousand times better than December 2010.
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I don't think so not for us anyway , hopefully it's just around the corner! Lots of positive comments in the forecast forum
I still reckon will get something early doors.
Model Output Discussion - 18z - 6th December onward
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Maybe not tears, it wouldn't be a flip ...
Fax a good one for the North/East though.