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Tamara

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Everything posted by Tamara

  1. Tamara
    Taking into account it is a decaying section of vortex, the fact that it is decoupled from/and due to no main driving force of a polar westerly 'wheel' so to speak, and also taking into account natural model eastward bias at a given range - it seems highly likely to me that the atlantic and residual vortex strength is being over modelled and we should make southward and westward adjustments accordingly. Cat H - the situation is very different to December. The energy over the atlantic was driven by a (relatively) stronger and more integral vortex - even though back then it was still stretched, weaker and not as not organised as it usually is in the absence of favourable stratospheric conditions. I may not have understood this properly, but wouldn't Phase 8 MJO also support high pressure over Greenland as a switch from the Pacific? This phase movement from 7 to 8 happening in tandem with the destruction of the Canadian vortex to finally facilitate the development of pressure rises to the NW?
  2. Tamara
    It's a beautiful morning - steady fine snow which has coated everything decoratively and added nicely to Fridays snow. By this evening it is going to be a winter wonderland Such a pity however that a thaw is going to spoil it as soon as tomorrow.
  3. Tamara
    I was apologising for the lack of umlauts I have to use another keyboard for those - plus although I am trying to learn as I intend to spend time over there eventually, German grammar is a nightmare to get right! Back to the snow
  4. Tamara
    Nicht - Deutsche. Noch einen schönen Abend. Bis bald
  5. Tamara
    Entschuldigen tschüß
  6. Tamara
    Du hast unsere verdammten Schnee gestohlen! Verflixt! Gute Nacht, schlaf gut und bis morgen
  7. Tamara
    I had full account earlier last year when I visited Germany about how amusing we are perceived to be (and to be very honest) useless they think we are at dealing with snow . It led to some very funny exchanged anecdotes and good natured conversation . I'm sure the equivalent weather mb over there would have a few laughs at us
  8. Tamara
    My German friend has skyped me about the snow where she lives - she is enjoying keeping her hubby employed clearing the driveway
  9. Tamara
    OK, as i said earlier my pics gave a clue - but if we are allowing for 24hrs later I would suggest 3cms compacted snow left from yesterday (was probably about 5cms when freshly fallen)
  10. Tamara
    You can always look at my pics on page 61 if you want evidence to date
  11. Tamara
    That will be alright - I'd expect that there will be snow flurries ahead of the main band anyway. The NAE suggests these with temperatures freezing or just below plus sub zero dewpoints
  12. Tamara
    I'm encouraged by the NAE temperature suggestions up to midday Monday. They are colder than I expected, with a good hard frost after the snow tomorrow and maybe squeeze another ice day on Monday
  13. Tamara
    Just a few of the pics I took on my afternoon ramble to the shops in my local village
  14. Tamara
    Thank you - you are a star!
  15. Tamara
    How do you download pics if you want to post them? Anyone help please?
  16. Tamara
    Yes, the colder air over the nearby continent is starting to filter towards us. The modest amount of snow here, just enough to make things look white and wintry, is holding very well - and if anything the very slight thaw seems to have stopped on the roads and pavement Time to go out to the shops soon - should make a very pleasant stroll, taking the country route to the village .
  17. Tamara
    In fact the METO warnings update rather confirms the lack of marginality and extent of the snow tomorrow and if anything the highest snowfall closest to eastern and south eastern coasts: A band of snow is likely to spread northwards across parts of southeastern and eastern England during Sunday afternoon and evening, bringing accumulations of 2-5 cm snow to some areas, and perhaps in excess of 8 cm towards coastal counties of southeast and eastern England. The public should be aware of the risk of disruption to travel.
  18. Tamara
    It is the data that you need to look at - the temps, dewpoints etc. Taking those into account I don't think anywhere is marginal tomorrow, probably not even windwards coasts to the east with the very cold surface air and low dewpoints (much as yesterday). Monday and thereafter it becomes a different story
  19. Tamara
    That 180m I rather think is a big help!
  20. Tamara
    I'm only 40 to 50m asl but it seems this might help somewhat even over quite short distances. There is still a couple of cms but the roads are clearer and a small daytime melt is happening. Another few hours and then that should stop and be renewed tomorrow which looks quite promising for most of us. Pity it isn't going to stay cold enough beyond then to keep the snow - but hey ho, nothing to complain about. Plus any less cold weather may very likely be temporary
  21. Tamara
    Yes, I think much as yesterday, we can look at what conditions our European cousins have as that plays an important part when we have the wind blowing from that way
  22. Tamara
    The other thing to look at are the 2m temperatures and what happens to them over the next 24hrs over the nearby continent - NE France, Belgium and Holland. Notice that colder air spreads westwards through the course of today and with the easterly wind blowing straight from this area, this suppresses our own temperatures for tonight and throughout tomorrow. Current temperatures just over the North sea/channel area are a degree or so below freezing but they drop quite sharply from the east through the next twenty four hours. This means that although upper temperatures are not especially low, the advection of the low level cold combined with sub zero dewpoints should keep things non marginal
  23. Tamara
    Very light snow grains in the air. Hopefully yesterdays few cms of snow, which is still there atm, will stay more or less intact till dusk. Temperatures are expected to fall away after 3pm and should quickly enough be below freezing again.
  24. Tamara
    The NAE clearly shows that the temperatures are suppressed in a similar way to yesterday when the snowfall arrives. Its also worth looking at the dewpoints. These remain at -1 or -2 throughout as well And that is pretty much for the entire region. Obviously there are a few more outputs to come as we get closer to tomorrow, but atm things are looking fine
  25. Tamara
    I don't think the GFS temperature (or ppn) guides are reliable - in this regard i prefer the NAE. For example, GFS suggested 1C for here yesterday when it was clearly below freezing
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