Weather-history

14th July 2002

Good view of the glow to the north now.

My email has been referred to the Climate Science Enquiries team. I'm finding it very hard not to be very cynical by these predictions going off past predictions that have gone awry. Remember Dr Viner and how snow was going to be a rare thing etc etc. That comment was made in early 2000 and 13 years later.......then he said it will cause chaos in 20 years times because we won't be use to it. Well guess what Dr Viner, snow has caused chaos for years in this country! Just read you history! Then we had NASA solar experts saying this solar maxima is predicted to be very active etc back in 2006. Then 3 years later after some kind of denial and saying nothing to worry about, it is not unusual when activity didnt seem to be increasing, it became what is going on?! Can we really predict such complex future events that involve so many variables?

1954, 1956, 1957, 1958 and 1960 were very wet summers.

7th July 2002

I have done, so we hopefully get an answer to this.

Will someone give me a logical reason why spring and autumn 2011 are not in that list of UK's run of unusual seasons? Oversight? http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/06/18/meeting-on-uks-run-of-unusual-seasons/ Facts on recent unusual seasons in the UK All facts are based on UK figures in the national records dating back to 1910. Spring 2013 – mean temperature of 6.0 °C; 5th coldest on record; coldest since 1962 (ie coldest in 51 years). March 2013 – mean temperature of 2.2 °C; joint 2nd coldest on record; coldest since 1962 (ie coldest in 51 years). Year of 2012 – 1337.3 mm of rain; 2nd wettest year on record; the wettest since 2000. Summer of 2012 – 379.2 mm of rain; 2nd wettest on record; wettest since 1912 (ie wettest for 100 years). June 2012 – 149.0 mm of rain; wettest on record. April 2012 – 128.0 mm of rain; wettest on record. Winter 2010/11 – mean temperature of 2.43 °C, which is 1.3C below the 1981-2010 average; December 2010 – mean temperature of -0.18 °C; coldest on record. Recent summers – six out of seven recent summers have had above average rainfall, with only 2010 being average. Three summers (2012, 2011, 2007) have seen the triple ‘disappointment’ of having below average temperatures, below average sunshine, and above average rainfall.

Putting my cynic hat on here and it is down to the way that news report was written but would they be having their meeting if the above mentioned didn't happen? What I mean that report doesn't mention spring 2011: warmest on record, autumn 2011: 2nd warmest on record? Would they have a meeting to try and explain those seasons or would they say "it's part of global warming effect" Are they going to identify those factors that caused those extreme seasons? It seems the report is written as though they are looking into seasons that seem to contradict the effects of global warming? Maybe I'm just being very cynical.

The weekend of 17th/18th June 2000 was a scorcher for many places but it is largely forgotten Temperatures recorded on 18th June 2000 Barbourne: 32.0C Leeds Weather Centre: 31.7C London Weather Centre: 31.4C Northolt: 31.0C Heathrow: 30.8C Blackpool airport: 30.0C Nottingham: 30.0C Carlisle: 29.6C Rhyl: 29.1C Manchester airport: 29.3C Glasgow airport: 26.0C It didn't last long although temperatures got into the low 30s in the east, the next day it turned cooler. Forecast from 18th June 2000 19th June 2000

28th February 2005

27th February 2005: I remember having a little ding dong with John Holmes that Peter Gibbs was wrong to say winter 2004-05 was the driest since 1962-63.

26th February 2005

25th February 2005: less cold

24th February 2005: we got some snow but it was largely sleet when it did fell, which wasn't often.

23rd February 2005: threat of more organised snow

22nd February 2005

21st February 2005

BBC news report

Bit of a shock to go from basking in hot sunshine to making snowmen for residents of Nadym in northern Russia http://news.sky.com/story/1103914/siberia-scorching-sun-to-snow-storm-in-a-day

Stumbled across this on UKWeatherworld from a thread in April 2007 "http://www.independent.co.uk/ Overheating Britain: April temperatures break all records: By Michael McCarthy, Environment Editor Published: 28 April 2007 The possibility is growing that Britain in 2007 may experience a summer of unheard-of high temperatures, with the thermometer even reaching 40C, or 104F,a level never recorded in history. The likelihood of such a "forty degree summer" is being underlined by the tumbling over the past year of a whole series of British temperature records, strongly suggesting that the British Isles have begun to experience a period of rapid, not to say alarming, warming. This would be quite outside all historical experience, but entirely consistent with predictions of climate change. The Met Office's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, in a joint forecast with the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, has already suggested that 2007 will be the hottest year ever recorded globally. Its long-term forecast for this summer in Britain is much more cautious, merely predicting that temperatures this year will be "above average". However, the suite of new records for the UK established in the past 12 months, culminating in an April of unprecedented high temperatures, is pointing to something new happening to the British climate. The incredibly warm April days we have been experiencing are not just wonderful, they are downright weird when seen in their seasonal context. Some of them have been 10C hotter, or more, than they should be at this time of the year. Average maximum temperatures at the end of April in southern England are traditionally about 13C or 14C. This weekend in London and the South-east, the thermometer may hit 26C or even 27C - 79F to 80F. An air temperature of 80 in April seems to belong to fantasy land. In the childhood of anyone aged over 40, it was a rare enough temperature in August. Even with its end not yet here, this month is certain to be the hottest April ever recorded. But that's just one of a cascade of British temperature records which are now falling. Spring 2007 (defined as March, April and May) will probably be Britain's hottest spring. It has followed the second-warmest winter in the UK record (December, January and February) and the warmest-ever autumn (September, October and November 2006). Before that, we had Britain's hottest-ever month (July last year), which included the hottest-ever July day (19 July, when the temperature at Wisley, Surrey, reached 36.5C, or 97.7F, beating a record that had lasted since 1911). To crown it all, yesterday the Met Office announced that the past 12 months, taken together, have been the hottest 12 months ever to have occurred in Britain, with a provisional mean temperature of 10.4C. The previous record (March 1997 to April 1998) was 9.7C. This leap of nearly three-quarters of a degree is huge and should make everybody consider whether a major shift in Britain's climate is becoming visible. To answer Yes to that question is by no means unreasonable. It raises the possibility that in 2007 Britain may experience for the first time the sort of "extreme event" heatwave that supercomputer models of climate predict will hit Britain as global warming takes hold. A heatwave of this nature hit northern and central France in the first two weeks of August 2003 and caused 18,000 excess deaths (part of a total of 35,000 excess deaths in a wider area including Switzerland, northern Italy and southern Germany). Many of the dead were old people with breathing difficulties who collapsed when night-time temperatures never dropped below the 80s Fahrenheit. The temperatures recorded during this episode were so far above the statistical record that it is accepted by meteorological scientists as having been caused by climate change - and is regarded as one of its first manifestations in Europe. Even though Britain was not at the centre of the heatwave, the UK temperature record was resoundingly smashed by it. On 10 August 2003, the 100F mark was breached for the first time ever, with a reading of 38.5C, or 101.3F, at Brogdale, near Faversham in Kent. The previous record had been 37.1C, or 98.8F, set on 3 August 1990 at Cheltenham, Gloucestershire, and thus the jump was 1.4 degrees Centigrade or 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit, an absolutely enormous leap. Despite the astonishing April, the natural variability of the climate is such that there is no guarantee whatsoever that the 2003 record will be broken this summer. But the indications are pointing that way. And if 2007 summer temperatures do go even higher, hitting the 40C/104F mark, there might well be severe problems for the public services, not just with drought and water shortages, but with large-scale heat exhaustion. A side effect might well be to make it extremely hard for people who do not accept that climate change is happening to deny the reality of a warming world. "The effects of temperature rise are being experienced on a global scale," Dr Debbie Hemming, a climate scientist at the Hadley Centre, said last night. "Many of the regions that are projected to experience the largest climate changes are already vulnerable to environmental stress from resource shortages, rapid urbanisation, population rise and industrial development." If you want to bet on the temperature exceeding the 100F mark this summer, Ladbrokes will only quote odds of 3-1. The bookies aren't stupid. And they may well be right. Overheating Britain * The winter of 2006-2007 was the UK's second-hottest ever * Autumn 2006 was the hottest ever * July 2006 was Britain's hottest ever month * Hottest ever 12-month period: 31 April 2006 to 1 May 2007 (provisional mean temperature: 10.4C) * Previous hottest: 31 March 1997 to 1 April 1998 (9.7C)" That was 6 years ago and at least around this neck of the woods, we not have had a half decent summer since. How things have changed, we have had some absolute washout summer months, the coolest summer since at least 1985 for CET and a whole series of below average months and seasons. Imagine if you went back in a time machine to 28th April 2007 and gave them the UK weather data for the next 6 years, would they believe you?

Stephen Burt wouldn't agree with that. There has been some dispute over that figure.

One of the wintriest Countryfile forecasts for a long time

19th February 2005: I remember this being cloudier than forecast with snow flurries at times

Is she still with the BBC?Anyway, here she is again on 18th February 2005http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7duEftzzxj4

My forecasts uploads have reached this stage. Elizabeth Saary, remember her? warns a cold wintry spell is on the way 17th February 2005