[Trees And Change Of Temperature.]

Land use changes have affected local climates. Forested valley slopes cleared for vineyard cultivation create frost hollows where once protected sun traps harboured orange groves. Which do you prefer, wine or marmalade?

I Spent some time last weekend in Dorking Surrey walking through a vineyard where the plants were laden with grapes and no rush by the staff to harvest them. Twenty years ago that was in the I'll Never see that category.

[Carinth's Arctic Sea Ice Watch Thread]

Looking at a couple of sites for data, there cetainnly seems to be quite a hiccup in the building of ice. It now appears to have dropped back below the 2005 level.

[Met Office Winter Forecast]

i'm not saying that the spurious 1 in 7 chance of a cold winter isnt acceptable, but for the benefit of us mere mortals, wouldn't it be be better if the met office backed up this forecast with some reasoning. ok, its clearly based on an average from past years, and therefore, lets face it, it's mostly a guess. i do wonder if these lrf's are purely to grab headlines, and frankly, recently, they're grabbing all the wrong ones

I agree totally for them to put the reasoning there and say this is what we think the models are showing us would be great. We all know there will be mistakes everybody makes them. I just feel this one is a result of somebody failing to deliver.

[Met Office Winter Forecast]

Some people really need to have a long hard think with regard to what long range forecasting is all about.

The Met' Office admit that these forecasts are experimental and with two months to go before the meteorological winter even begins it's hardly likely that any forecaster or forecasting agency is going to pin down region by region detail as the winter progresses, even if the computing power was 10 times the current value.

This isn't a forcast this is just the last few years averaged out. It is like they have realised they promised something and hadn't done it so they threw something together to get people off their backs.

[Met Office Winter Forecast]

thanks SR. its a bit scant in detail, i reckon the november forecast will be a better presented one. i don't see any need to rubbish the Met O's LRF's. as i hardly see any other forecasters do any better, or worse. lets face it. LRF's are notoriously difficult to pin down and the degree of accuracy has to be a lot lower the further out it is.

I really don't think that is defendable. That is more or less admitting they don't know. It is such a good job they have had all those millions spent on super computers.

[Arctic Sea Ice Webcams]

I think you'll find those folk have now pulled back from the Petermann Glacier as it's about to calve a berg the size of Manhattan island......nothing really eh?

I have been trying to find pictures of this do you have any please

[Congratulations To The Telegraph]

I think it must be hats off to the Telegraph newspaper. They have an article about Modoki, apparently then new term for the horseshoe shape to the pacific SST's. Surprise time it may cause droughts. I think the Telegraph have now stated that just about all the different SST patterns are going to cause droughts for Australia due to global warming. If I should not post links then please remove

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/6223794/Climate-change-causing-new-El-Nino-weather-pattern-to-form-known-as-Modoki.html

-

A good example is the two following quotes, first about El-Nino from their related link

"Typically, El Nino has the potential to disrupt the rainy seasons and cause lower rainfall in India, Australia"

and now the new article

"What effect this will have on global climate is unclear, but one outcome could be worsening droughts in India and Australia."

I can't make my mind up whether this is sloppy journalism or someone trying to find a new way to scare people.

[Carinth's Arctic Sea Ice Watch Thread]

Well, it is a 'recovery'; there's no-doubt about that, Ice...Even better with all-but the last three years' ice-extents removed??

I think what would be needed to confirm this recovery would be the winter max getting back to a higher level as well the last two maximimums were quite poor.

[Major Hurricane Fred]

Just out of interest if it does pick up enough strength would it still be fred as it is the same storm system

[Very Wet July So Far!]

I finally bought a weather station and this is my first month

85.2mm so far this month in my location

[Atlantic Tropical Wave/disturbance Thread 2009]

This must be a record to still with out a named storm in the Atlantic/Caribbean and only on the first named storm in the Pacific and were passed the mid point of June

[Carinth's Arctic Sea Ice Watch Thread]

A little bit confused the usual place I look at for see ice still shows good ice coverage http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...current.365.jpg but when I look at this web site http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php that is now showing closere to the last few years. They cannot both be right. Does anyone know which has been accurate over the years?

[Carinth's Arctic Sea Ice Watch Thread]

Thanks for the advise.

[Carinth's Arctic Sea Ice Watch Thread]

Hi Carinth

I have been reading this thread since joing and was wondering if you could post some of the urls from where you get your information from please.

[Politics And AGW/GW]

i was just reading about a lower hurricaine season this year only 6 likely.

but the intresting part came when is was suggested that the tropical alantic has cooled unusualy.

(along with an unusual cooling of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures it observed in recent months)

I have just come back from 2 weeks in Cuba and there was plenty of anecdotal evidence about fish catches being lower and also the cabin crew told us we were lucky where we went as most of Hispaniola has had constant rain for March which isn't the wet season.

[Catlin Artic Survey]

The Catlin expedition is odd in it's own rights but the data it culls, once properly interpreted (I think All sides get an equal bite of the cherry :lol: ) will ,obviously, be worthwhile.

After spending several hours reading all the different statements there will be no data as all the surveying equipment has failed and been taken away by aircraft. I for one would not rely on one person saying I drilled a hole and it was this deep

[Snow Watch London, Se England & E Anglia]

latest from Epsom. I cleared the snow to the top of the car window

[Snow Watch London, Se England & E Anglia]

Any of you lucky bunch got over 15cm yet?

15 cm came and went about 5.45am and it has not stopped since

[Snow Watch London, Se England & E Anglia]

Morning all

Well, Sutton was a direct hit for the streamer last night and we have about 1 foot (!) of level snow with snow still falling.

Currently -1.8c.

Truely amazing. Takes me back to the 70's and 80's.

SS

I live about five miles away, not far from racetrack and now getting on for 14 inches and no sign of stopping. Never known a snow event like this ever.

[Snow Watch London, Se England & E Anglia]

now reached 16 centimetres and still snowing.

KUDOS to the guys on the atmosphere thread I didn't completely understand all of it but they have been calling this for a long while.

[Snow Watch London, Se England & E Anglia]

[Top of a table or bin lid maybe :o

[Winter 2008/9: The Coldest First Half Of Winter Since 1981/2?]

With the mention of La Nina I thought this link might interest people.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_...ensoyears.shtml

[Daily Mail Strikes Again]

I wonder if there is a Daily Mail hidden agenda behind this.

I think the most important thing nowadays is to try and find out whohas paid the scientists fothier research. Cynical I know but often quite telling

[Daily Mail Strikes Again]

I guess I had better learn how to ski

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/art...scientists.html

[Carinthians Latest Arctic Ice Reports]

I'm amazed this has slipped so far down page 2 especially with the ice extent now edging closer to the average levels and the lower than average SST's around the british isles.