John88B

Wednesday at 13:09

Ben Sainsbury looking at your location I would have thought you might do okay just staying put

March 28

The models showing no sign of an end to the unsettled regime that has gripped the country for what seems like months on end and as I type yet another band of heavy rain moves in from the south west.

Fortunately nature has a way of evening things out so one would hope that sometime soon the models start showing some promise of a prolonged spell of drier, warmer weather. This bad run has to end eventually.

Cheers all.

March 2

Really coming down now

March 2

Morning all. I've woken up to a bit of a winter wonderland here. A nice surprise.

January 15

Just now, AWD said:

Are you joining him on chase number 3?

I'm in

January 15

7 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

Agree the trend seems to be popping up on each run ties in with the post i placed above, something dryer from the 25th onward temps to be decided but should imagining given where i think the high will set up could be looking at possibly North East or Eastly direction

Yes Nick and more importantly it ties in with the met office outlook for late January into early February. I have a feeling this winter is far from over!

January 13

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Hi John I know you follow my posts and appreciate that but I'm afraid the upcoming cold spell will likely be snow free for the majority of the UK with the snow chances from troughs looking to affect Scotland and France. Thanks, Kasim.

Thanks for the reply Kasim. I always try to remain positive, always looking for best possible outcomes, probably from years spent playing golf

Thanks for your much valued input.

January 13

I don't share much of the despondency in here this morning. The up and coming week offers very cold temperatures, plenty of snow for Scotland and the far north, a band of snow coming from the north west affecting Northern Ireland, north Wales, the north west and possibly getting as far as the midlands then a midweek band of snow that could affect southern England and possibly south Wales.

If all this comes off I would say it would be a decent end to a pretty decent cold spell

January 12

So a midweek shot at snow for the snow starved south before things maybe turn milder at the weekend, although still time for that to change.

With the met office long term outlook still looking positive for plenty more cold shots before January and February are out.

All in all a pretty positive outlook for cold lovers and still a position we'd have killed to have been in during many a previous drab, mild winter

January 9

9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

He’s misleading everyone - it’s a snow fest for many

From an imby point of view it's a dream chart but as others have said a shift in the cold south a touch would be ideal.

Anyway cracking runs from the ecm and ukmo this morning. Plenty to be positive about. The possibilities of plenty of cold, snowy fun for everyone to be had

January 9

I don't know of the verification stats but personally if I wanted two models on board it would be the UKMO and the ECM.

January 9

As a 13 year old living in the west country near the coast of the Bristol channel it's January 1982 for me that sticks in the memory. We'd already had a fairly snowy December and then more bitter cold set in early January leading to a huge two day blizzard starting on January 8th.

We ended up with 60cm of level snow with huge drifts completely covering the hedgerows down the lane we were living in. Bitter temperatures continued for a week after. We were snowed in for days and I loved every minute of it

I'm hoping to see the like of it again

January 8

Light snow here for the last hour. Might just about get a dusting.

January 8

Just now, JimBob said:

The next 2 to 3 days look the coldest for the south in the reliable time frame, just looks standard winter fare, even some double figure temperatures creeping in on some models at ten days time!

I wouldn't worry about anything showing temperatures in double figures in ten days time. Highly unlikely to happen.

My take on the models is cold for a few days, then a couple of days less cold then much colder weather from the north/north east.

I must say hats off to the met if this is the final outcome

January 6

4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Gem 204

Cold air flooding south fast

Even to my untrained eye that's an absolute beaut. If the weekend brings constant charts like this I would expect major upgrades for cold in the met office outlook come the start of next week

January 5

1 minute ago, JoeShmoe said:

Yep, and the usual suspects are still posting day 10 charts. And shooting down those who have very wisely urged caution all along

It works both ways though. Some post day 10 charts to prove the coldies wrong. I agree totally though that caution is always advisable until things come into the reliable.

January 5

Not the best runs this morning but the positives - it's going to dry out, it's going to get colder in the reliable, we're still in the early days of the coldest part of winter.

The negatives - charts in f1 have at this moment taken a turn for the worse.

Let's keep our chins up

January 4

Fantastic model consistency. All roads appear to lead to cold and then maybe very cold. Our local weatherman Fergie has just made mention of this

January 4

Good solid runs again this morning, the cold is on its way and could well be long lasting.

A January well below the average cet to break the endless run of above average months would be great.

Certainly looking very possible and that would hopefully bring with it multiple opportunities for decent snowfall

January 3

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Some of us think they already reflect this, but hey ho!

Sorry Mike, I should have said to even more positively reflect this

January 3

Judging by the positive met office and BBC etc updates and despite some model volatility I can't help feeling we're on the cusp of a long overdue, proper January cold spell.

I expect the models to positively reflect this in the coming days

January 3

3 minutes ago, TEITS said:

I am sure some newcomers must be utterly confused by reading this thread this morning. So here is my assessment of what the models actually show rather than what may go wrong.

Firstly very good agreement it will turn colder this weekend. Probably not cold enough for snow showers but still uncertain as the mean is at -8C but the ensembles vary between -5 to -10C. Regardless of snow I think many will welcome this change in our weather pattern.

Note the increase in the upper temps for next week. This is the transitional phase before we see blocking develop over Greenland. Much of next week is likely to be settled, cold, frosty but locations such as Wales, W Midlands may struggle to reach much above zero during the day. Freezing fog could be a big issue.

Now onto my favourite part and that is the following weekend 12th Jan. The GEFS/ECM mean is fantastic with regards to blocking over Greenland. A SLP mean of 1030-1035mb in Iceland is incredible and is comparable to what we witnessed prior to the 2010 cold spell.

The error that some are making is by not viewing the models from a N Hemisphere perspective. The greenland high is as a result of what is happening to the PV and pressure increasing over the Arctic. The Greenland HP isn't because of our high pressure over the UK this weekend moving into Greenland.

I shall just add that in 2010 the models made a right drama over the Greenland high and a W based NAO. For many runs they had this too far W with the low sinking S in the Atlantic rather than the UK. Thankfully as we know this was corrected E.

Great Post, thank you Also from what I remember of 2010, the met office were very confident of it turning much colder well in advance of it actually happening despite some model volatility. So similar to now, not saying anything like 2010 is on the cards mind

January 2

Some of the reactions on here from run to run do make me laugh.

Stay calm, the trend is our friend. It's going to get colder. How cold and for how long yet to be nailed down. The met office are on board too

After the utter dross we've been served up lately, Scotland excluded, cold lovers should be happy

January 2

I'm in that narrow Amber warning area. We've had copious amounts of rain here lately with many flooded roads in the area and now it looks like we're going to be battered by the winds albeit briefly.

Thankfully it looks to settle down in the coming days as it turns cooler. Hopefully we'll have some cold and snow to talk about soon rather than this incessant rain

January 2

As the rain pours down here yet again the important thing the models are showing is a general dry out for areas that have suffered constant deluges.

There's no point getting too hung up over individual runs. I believe the trend is our friend and a cool down is definitely on the way. Where we go from there I'll leave for those far more knowledgeable than me.

To my mind January still looking promising for those of a cold persuasion so plenty to be positive about still

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