John88B
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Posts posted by John88B
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The met office have obviously not totally discounted the gfs as their outlook suggests a small chance of easterlies and snow showers setting up.
A slim chance but a chance nonetheless and something to be discussed.
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1 minute ago, Gowon said:
It's hell for me unless I'm on a beach in the tropics.
I can barely function in that type of heat.
Yep I was going to say not so bad if you're on a beach or by the pool on holiday.
The problem in this country is the humidity that often comes with the heat making it even more unbearable.
The one thing that made last summers particularly hot spell slightly more bearable was that it was a dry heat but it still made working outside very hard and the golf punishing. The beers after a round were very pleasant though.
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2 minutes ago, Gowon said:
That's the point - 30/40 plus degrees is not lovely and warm
That's damn hot and uncomfortably hot too
That's getting too hot even for enjoying my golf on an unshaded course.
Mind you, everyone to their own.
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As someone has just mentioned on the mod thread great weather coming up for drying out golf courses and getting a few rounds in and as a keen golfer I'm happy with that
I'm a coldie at heart and still hope for a late cold blast in maybe late Feb,early March. After that though a mild, dry spring and cracking summer would do me just fine.
As the weather gets better the beers after a round in the golf clubhouse taste sweeter too
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20 minutes ago, Floatylight said:
I don't know when it was last,that I had 5 inch layer of ice on my pond for days on end...
Pretty cold here compared to alot of winters.
Not much snow so far.
But daytime temps have been very low.
For 2 weeks at a time.
Yep my pond so far this winter has had a total of 14 days frozen solid. Add to that a few days and nights of freezing fog, numerous frosts, a few ice days and a couple of light snowfalls. All this in the rather balmy west country.
I'd say from a coldies perspective so far a pretty decent winter cold wise but could have been a lot more snowy.
Certainly not a bad one compared to some of the mild, frostless and snowless winters I've seen in my 53 years on the planet.
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Just now, Bristle Si said:
Just 3:
2010
1981
2009
That's it, for my 61+ years.
Living in the same area over my 53 years I can concur.
Of course Dec 81 was followed by Jan 82 that gave us the biggest snowfall I've ever seen in the area. A real stand out winter that sticks in my memory.
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13 minutes ago, fromey said:
Not sure if anyone has posted this.
warning has been extended till Wednesday 25th.
Yep a couple of days ago the met office was forecasting it would become mild here from this Sunday but is now showing a max of 4c out until Tuesday. The milder weather being pushed back more and more.
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Have woken up to a dusting of snow here. Looking at the radar we might get a couple more showers soon.
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I love the dark evenings and the light evenings equally and I love our seasons. By the end of winter I'm ready for the lighter evenings and likewise by the end of summer I'm ready for the darker,cosy evenings.
This time of year I'm liking the longer days as I'm yearning to be able to get rounds of golf in after work. Then as the days become long, and hopefully hot, there's sinking a few cold beers in the clubhouse beer garden after a round
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The 36 hour blizzard starting on January 8th,1982 brought the heaviest snowfall I've ever seen in this area. At sea level this side of the Bristol channel it dumped 40cm of level snow with 20ft drifts with more over the hills.
Our friends across the bridge in South Wales were also hit hard with up to 70cm of level snow reported in hillier areas around Newport.
We were snowed if for a week down the lane we lived in as freezing weather followed.
As a 12 year old I loved every minute of it
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8 minutes ago, Cuban Zebra said:
Just out of interest given the outlook for Europe so far this winter, where exactly is cold at the minute??
Russia and northern Scandinavia hogging it at the moment by the looks of it.
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4c and 100mm please.
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6 hours ago, blizzard81 said:
Funnily enough I've seen some meto updates with that exact spelling mistake over the last month. Unforgivable.
Wintry or wintery, either way of spelling it is acceptable, its just that wintry is the more common way of spelling it.
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It got down to below -7 this morning which is very cold for this area.
We had a snowfall here Sunday morning and there are still patches of snow around.
By Saturday morning the pond in my garden will have remained frozen for nine days.
All this down in the rather balmy westcountry. All in all a pretty decent cold spell although more snow would always be nice
This current cold spell is coming to an end but many a time during my lifetime an early shot of cold has been followed by a few more cold shots, sometimes severe, during the season. Plenty to be positive about for coldies.
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Down below -7 here now. Very cold for this area. A cracking hard frost outside, everything looking rather beautiful.
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9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Something wrong somewhere ….. here is the actual chart for that analog date in 1962
Would it be true to say our coldest winters come when the pv is over to out north east rather than where it seem to prefer to reside over Canada?
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Just now, offerman said:Complete reversal on gfs latest run, brings deep cold back in within a few days after the mild blip.
Mind you these charts flip flop soo much at the moment.Ties in with Fergie on the local news saying chillier weather could well be back in before Christmas.
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It's going to be the coldest night of the year here I think. It's already down to -4 and forecast to go down to -7. Fergie said on the local news some places could go as low as -10 tonight. Brrrrr.
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2 minutes ago, festivalking said:
Nothing here yet! Mind you we are only at 200 metres. Met office app always over egg the snow risk. Its relatively mild today at 1.6c. DP about 0.5. If we are to get anything significant today I'd suggest it will a 300 m/asl event, certainly during the day.
Radar is pretty bare at the moment for the moor.
The forecast I saw said rain, sleet and snow but turning more readily to snow as the day goes on.
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The models this morning appear to be swaying towards a lengthening of the cold spell or at the very least there just being a milder blip.
How lovely would it be to have a cold, wintry run up to Christmas and a December cet ending up well below average.
Fingers crossed.
Edit. Good luck to those in the south of the region today. It looks like snow is likely for many.
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Good to wake up and see the thread busy and Crewe posting again.
Hopefully a day of the models firming up on lengthening the cold spell or at least it just being a milder blip. It's certainly a promising start to the day.
Cheers to all the knowledgeable contributors.
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8 hours ago, Weather of Mass Disruption said:
I really dislike marginal systems, as for us, they never deliver a snow to rain event, it always just rain.
I think rather than have a snow to rain event I'd rather have just rain. There's nothing worse than having the landscape transformed by snow falling knowing that it's going to be, and then watching it get washed away by rain.
The ideal scenario of course is to have the mild air try to push in, dump a foot of snow and then to have the cold air win out and leave you still in freezing temperatures.
Having been a 12 year old in this part of the world in Jan 82 I can tell you that's the best buzz in the world.
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Snow falling here again from a small area of snow that has been heading slowly west. Might get a top up here out of this.
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
The GFS firmly sticking to its guns. As others have mentioned, you can't totally discount a model that is consistent in showing something. The met office certainly haven't!
As other have also mentioned it was also the GFS that was the first to pick up on the extreme heat of last summer, although this was before its upgrade.
The plot thickens but the GFS may just be right. Time will tell.